The Green Bay Packers and New York Jets pulled off one of the biggest blockbuster trades in NFL history, with future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers on the move in a deal that feels eerily reminiscent of the Brett Favre trade 15 years ago.
New York went into the offseason seeking a franchise quarterback who could put its offense over the top. Meanwhile, Green Bay was ready to move on from its NFL MVP quarterback, with the organization fully confident its heir apparent is ready to be the face of the organization.
Related: 2023 NFL mock draft
It’s a turning point for the two franchises. The Packers are now focused on the future, shutting their Super Bowl window and sacrificing a potential run in the 2023 NFL season for a brighter outlook in the years ahead. Meanwhile, the Jets add the final piece they hope can help them challenge for the Super Bowl.
Let’s dive into the winners and losers of the blockbuster Aaron Rodgers trade.
Related: Aaron Rodgers traded to New York Jets in NFL blockbuster
Winner: Jordan Love finally gets his chance
Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love waited years for this opportunity. He didn’t ask to be the 26th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, a decision by the franchise that sparked drama between the Packers and Rodgers. Quite frankly, Green Bay’s decision to draft him looked like a whiff for two years.
- Jordan Love contract: $2.298 million salary (2023), $20.272 million team option (2024)
However, the reports started becoming increasingly positive in 2022. The Packers’ coaching staff gained confidence in Love, believing he made the strides necessary to become a starting NFL quarterback. Furthermore, general manager Brian Gutekunst considered making a switch during the 2022 season.
Related: Green Bay Packers think Jordan Love is ‘second coming‘
Most only remember the lone start he made in 2021, but a more telling sign of where he might be as an NFL player came this fall. Facing the Philadelphia Eagles, Love completed 6-of-9 attempts for 113 yards with one passing touchdown. After the game, Pro Bowl cornerback Darius Slay heaped praise on the young signal-caller.
“Young buck ( Jordan Love) comes in and actually does a very, very solid job. Green Bay got a bright, bright future, like a bright one because buddy was slinging it…I ain’t going to lie, he low-key looked like A-Rod, like he’s been learning a lot,” Slay continued. “It should be a blessing for him to be behind a GOAT and learning like that at a high level, and he’s a talented kid as well. He’s a first-round draft pick, so he has a lot of talent.”
Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Darius Slay on Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love (H/T Eagles Wire)
Love is actually walking into a favorable situation. Green Bay finished with the third-highest PFF Pass Blocking Efficiency (88.5) this past season. The Packers’ offense features Pro Bowl running back Aaron Jones, emerging No. 1 receiver Christian Watson and complementary pieces in A.J. Dillon and Romeo Doubs.
Related: Green Bay Packers draft picks 2023
Only time will tell whether or not Love is as good as the Packers hope. However, he is stepping into a better offensive environment than arguably any rookie in the 2023 draft class will. Plus, Love could turn a breakouts season into an immediate contract extension next spring.
Loser: Aaron Rodgers is headed for something he isn’t ready for
Rodgers’ final years in Green Bay captured his volatile relationship with the media. While he loved the support he received from the die-hard football fans in Green Bay, even if it came with the occasional criticism, he bristled at any pushback received from reporters.
It’s going to be a whole new experience with the Jets. Green Bay-Appleton ranks 69th in the top 100 media markets, and New York is the largest media market in the United States. However, it’s not just the number of reporters and media outlets that will make Rodgers uncomfortable.
- Aaron Rodgers stats 2022 (fourth quarter): 58.7% completion, 79.3 QB rating 5-3 TD-INT
Special attention will be paid to his 8-10 record in the NFL playoffs since 2011 and repeated shortcomings in situations with the game on the line. He’ll enter New York as the savior, but another playoff disappointment with a roster that is far better than what he had in his final seasons with the Packers will unleash a firestorm that will make everything he experienced before seem like positive publicity.
Winner: New York Jets playoff drought poised to end
Rodgers is certainly declining, especially when it comes to his athleticism, and he will be combative with the New York media. However, there’s no denying he is the best quarterback the Jets have had in decades. It’s a game-changer for a team that was just one piece away in 2022 from going on a playoff run.
Related: Longest playoff droughts in NFL
New York already boasts a defense capable of winning a playoff game on its own. In addition, running back Breece Hall is returning in 2023, and he forms a nice tandem with Michael Carter. At wide receiver, Garrett Wilson is going to take off, and complementary pieces Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman should be in for a boost as well. Realistically, this Jets team could go to the AFC Championship Game.
The Jets haven’t been to the playoffs since Jan. 23, 2011, in the AFC Championship Game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Quite frankly, it would be stunning if New York’s 12-season playoff drought didn’t finally come to an end in 2023. The Jets are now one of the best teams in the NFL.
Loser: Buffalo Bills’ margin for error is gone
The Buffalo Bills seemed to be entering a wide-open Super Bowl window just two years ago. Quite frankly, this team might’ve been 13 seconds away in the 2022 AFC Divisional Round Game from going on a Super Bowl run. Now, there are legitimate concerns in Buffalo.
Related: Highest-paid NFL quarterbacks
A top-five defense lost middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds to the open market, with defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier stepping away too. Regression on that side of the ball already reduced the margin for error from this offense and quarterback Josh Allen. Everyone remembers his MVP-caliber season in 2020 and his unbelievable performance in the head-to-head battle against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs.
We’ve seen a more erratic version of him since. Allen’s interception rate climbed to 2.5% last season, higher than his interception rate in his second season (2%) when he had an 85.3 quarterback rating. Of greater concern, are the numbers he posted from Weeks 7-16.
- Josh Allen stats 2022 (Weeks 7-16): 87.5 QB rating, 18-10 TD-INT, 60.7% completion
This isn’t to suggest he is just an above-average quarterback, few are capable of the things Allen can do on a football field. However, his recklessness with the football is once again a problem. Part of the issue is too much of the Bills’ offense is put on his shoulders, but Buffalo’s cap situation makes it extremely difficult to add a No. 2 receiver or a quality starting running back.
Now that the Jets have Rodgers, there’s a strong case to be made that New York might be the better football team. Even if the two teams are neck-and-neck, the Bills’ margin for error in the division is officially gone.