At the end of June, the American League East race was over.
The Tampa Bay Rays were 57-28 – nearly 30 games over .500 before July had started – and showed no signs of slowing down, winning six of their last nine in June.
The Rays are, annually, the most overlooked team in baseball, maybe in all professional sports. They’ve been to the playoffs four straight seasons, won 100 games in 2021 and made it to the 2020 World Series, all while having one of the lower payrolls in baseball.
So, it shouldn’t have been a surprise that the Rays were really good again to start 2023, especially after taking some financial chances this offseason. They gave a franchise-record, free-agent deal for a pitcher to Zach Elfin (three years, $40 million), who is having a career year (13-7, 3.58 ERA). They also extended corner infielder Yandy Díaz for three years and $24 million this January. He made his first All-Star Game in July.
But the Rays have been mediocre since July 1 with an 18-23 record, including an 8-16 July. They’ve fallen three games out of first place in the East, trailing a Baltimore Orioles team (77-47) that is now 30 games over .500.
The franchise suffered one of the roughest weeks in recent sports memory last week, when the Rays announced they’d be facing the rest of the season and much of next year without their ace, Shane McClanahan, due to Tommy John surgery.
And their best young star, shortstop Wander Franco, was just recently placed on administrative leave by MLB while he is reportedly being investigated for alleged inappropriate behavior with a minor. It could cost him the remainder of the season.
The Rays subsequently won four of six on a west coast trip to San Francisco and Los Angeles. Manager Kevin Cash has been extraordinary over the years in keeping his team focused on the goals in front of it.
With the way the Orioles are playing, however, and the outside noise now, the Rays are going to be challenged to win a division that appeared to be theirs two months ago. They still have a solid nucleus and, according to Fangraphs, a 97% chance to make the playoffs. Their percentage for winning the division, however, has dropped to 33.6% while the Orioles have risen to 63.5%.
I learned long ago you should never discount the Rays, but as a talent evaluator said to me recently, “Their annual supply of pixie dust may have run out this year.”
Related: Updated 2023 MLB power rankings
Baltimore Orioles owner John Angelos and the crying poor
Orioles’ chairman and CEO John Angelos is not one to grant one-on-one interviews, especially to print publications. So, I’ve been waiting for his interview with the New York Times’ Tyler Kepner to be published. It landed Monday and didn’t disappoint.
Angelos’ ability to say the wrong thing is uncanny. I wrote in Feb. 2022 that we needed to hear more from the eldest son of Peter Angelos; I’d retract that statement now; except every time he opens his mouth another circus begins.
This time, Angelos admitted to Kepner that the concept of a lifetime Oriole – such as the Brooks Robinsons and Cal Ripkens of yesteryear – may be outdated or outpriced, anyway, in Baltimore.
“When people talk about giving this player $200 million, that player $150 million, we would be so financially underwater that you’d have to raise the prices massively,” Angelos was quoted as saying in the New York Times article.
Basically, he suggests the only way the Orioles can afford extending their young stars is through jacking ticket prices. He seems to forget about revenue sharing for smaller-market clubs, the MLB tech money, the windfalls from national TV contracts, oh and MASN, which Angelos runs as if it is a public-access network out of his basement.
It’s an absolute insult to suggest the Orioles don’t have the money to pay competitive salaries to their best players. But it at least braces fans for the inevitable. The team has made no real inroads to extending its young core. None as of earlier this summer anyway.
And none of this is surprising. Much of the Orioles’ future infield – Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and top prospect Jackson Holliday – is represented by Scott Boras, who typically leads his clients to the greener fields of free agency. No reason that changes with the O’s trio.
You can probably forget about Adley Rutschman and Cedric Mullins and Grayson Rodriguez, too. Because the price tags will keep going up as their numbers do and as their profiles rise in postseasons.
That’s not to say the Orioles don’t have an impressive window in which they can win titles. But to sustain a consistent core money must be spent. Or trades must be made. If not, according to Angelos, the organization would be underwater with all those hefty contracts.
And, as Angelos suggests, that can only be bailed out by the fans.
Extensions in the Mid-Atlantic
There are some extensions being signed in the Mid-Atlantic, however. According to multiple reports, including The Athletic, the Washington Nationals have signed manager Dave Martinez to a two-year extension with a 2026 option and that GM Mike Rizzo is nearing completion on a contract of similar length.
A few months ago, this would have been difficult to fathom. It looked like there could be a full reset in Washington. But the way the young Nationals have matured so quickly this year shows that the future is bright and maybe isn’t that far away. The Nationals, after compiling 107 losses last year, had a losing record in each of the first four months this season. But they won 12 of their first 18 in August and could push the New York Mets into the NL East basement.
Rizzo, a former scout, is known for his eye for talent. And the trades he made in 2021 and 2022 are bearing fruit. It’s possible that his deal last August that sent pending free agent Josh Bell and superstar Juan Soto to the San Diego Padres for six players, mostly prospects, could go down as one of the greatest heists of all-time.
Soto has hit .254 with an .860 OPS for the Padres and will be a free agent after next year. Meanwhile, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore are already legitimate contributors for the Nationals and James Wood and Robert Hassell III are among baseball’s better outfield prospects.
Rizzo and Martinez helped lead the Nationals to the World Series in 2019 and they should get the chance to lead them back from the rebuild now.
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Cody Bellinger, one of the most interesting MLB free agents
This offseason’s free-agent market will be pitching heavy with two-way star Shohei Ohtani and lefty Julio Urías leading a strong stable of starters. But there’s an offensive player that is shooting up the rankings thanks to a career-saving year.
Chicago Cubs signed Cody Bellinger to a one-year deal with a mutual option for a guaranteed $17 million last offseason. The 2019 National League MVP was coming off three straight disappointing years with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and another rough one with the Cubs may have meant searching for any job this offseason, even a part-time one.
That’s not the case now. Bellinger, who turned 28 in July, had 20 homers and 17 steals in his first 92 games with the Cubs while posting a .933 OPS. As a center fielder with a pedigree and a speed-power combo, Bellinger may end up being the most pursued pure position player in free agency this winter.
He can exercise his side of a $25 million option, but he chose the perfect time to bust out again and test the open market.
Dan Connolly is an MLB Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.