A number of NFL futures bets can be placed well in advance of the 2021 NFL season, but Super Bowl odds are where the real market value is in sports betting.
Yes, trying to pick the Lombardi Trophy winner out of 32 teams is a difficult task, yet a lot of clubs can be ruled out from the jump. Consider that a $100 bet on the No. 1 favorite, the Kansas City Chiefs, would yield a $450 profit at +450 odds.
Let’s take a look at the latest Super Bowl odds from DraftKings, and then break down several teams whose odds present the best value while the numbers are still rather raw.
|Team||Super Bowl odds|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+450|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+550|
|Los Angeles Rams||+1200|
|San Francisco 49ers||+1400|
|Green Bay Packers||+1600|
|New Orleans Saints||+2500|
|New England Patriots||+3000|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+3000|
|Washington Football Team||+4000|
Best value bets for 2022 Super Bowl odds
Playing a favorite: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+550)
Tom Brady completely changed the culture in Tampa Bay in just one season. From the chaotic Jameis Winston era to the greatness of TB12, the Bucs came together late in 2020 and won eight straight en route to a Super Bowl LV triumph.
Picking one of the top two favorites admittedly isn’t the best value, but in Tampa’s case, it’s worth a flier. After all, Brady has played in four of the last five Super Bowls, and the Bucs roster is way more talented than anything he was working with toward the end of his time with the New England Patriots.
Tampa Bay somehow kept all its starters on offense and defense, not to mention its top coordinators. That continuity, and a fuller offseason program in 2021, is going to help the Bucs be much more consistent this season.
A longer, 17-game season and the fact that Brady had rather serious knee surgery in the offseason are causes for concern. That said, Brady is the ultimate iron man, and until the wheels actually fall off, history tells us it’s never wise to doubt the GOAT.
An ascending contender: Cleveland Browns (+1600)
Just before the 2021 NFL Draft, DraftKings had the Browns at +2000, so it’s telling that oddsmakers have already shortened Cleveland’s odds. That means its rookie class is viewed as one that can make an instant impact, headlined by cornerback Greg Newsome II, playmaking linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and world-class sprinter/receiver Anthony Schwartz.
But even if the Browns got zilch from their incoming first-year players, they so thoroughly crushed free agency that they’d still be in the running for a Super Bowl.
After making the AFC Divisional Round and losing 22-17 to Kansas City last postseason, Cleveland went big on the open market. Safety John Johnson III, nickel cornerback Troy Hill and pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney all joined the fold. That trio will provide serious upgrades at key positions.
It’ll be the second season that quarterback Baker Mayfield is in reigning Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski’s offense. With an excellent backfield featuring Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and a strong receiving corps that’ll welcome back Odell Beckham Jr. from injury, Mayfield has all the means to thrive.
If you’re betting on the Browns to win the Super Bowl, it’s not the joke wager it would’ve been in years past. This team is for real, and should be hosting a playoff game after winning the AFC North.
A potentially epic redemption arc: New England Patriots (+3000)
Maybe Bill Belichick saw how Brady thrived in Tampa Bay and thought, “Hey, maybe I should add some talent to my roster.”
Belichick insisted that the Patriots were going all-in while Brady was still around, and that an underwhelming 7-9 campaign last season was the fallout from that. Well, The Hoodie is obviously going full-tilt to return to his Super Bowl-winning ways.
An epic free-agent spending spree saw Belichick bring aboard two excellent tight ends in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Their versatility and ability to create matchup problems as pass-catchers is going to make everything so much easier for the offense.
About that: You may look at New England’s two-deep QB depth chart and wonder whether Cam Newton or Mac Jones can deliver the goods. Bear in mind that Newton came down with COVID-19 in 2020 and was never the same afterwards.
Prior to then, Newton was picking up the Pats’ offense on the fly and was playing great for stretches despite extremely limited skill position talent.
If Jones blows everyone away and beats Newton out, more power to him. Regardless of what happens, Belichick is coming back with a vengeance after hearing about how Brady was the chief catalyst for New England’s dynasty.
Somehow, the most accomplished coach ever has a chip on his shoulder now. That makes the Patriots an excellent long-shot Super Bowl bet.
A classic deep sleeper: Washington Football Team (+4000)
Think about Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s career for a moment: All the starting opportunities he’s had that have fallen by the wayside, and none of them were anywhere near as favorable as what he has in Washington.
The Football Team has an excellent defense led by second-year stud Chase Young and a terrorizing front. They upgraded their secondary with the free-agent acquisition of William Jackson III. That unit should absolutely be one of the best in football.
We know the NFC East is the worst division in the league. Washington won it this past year with a 7-9 record. Now that head coach Ron Rivera has established himself and gotten the dysfunctional organization headed in the right direction, he has a savvy veteran leader in Fitzpatrick to captain the ship.
An unstable QB situation limited the Football Team’s ceiling last season. Now, they have three lethal downfield receiving threats in incumbent Terry McLaurin, former Carolina standout Curtis Samuel and third-round rookie Dyami Brown.
Fitzpatrick should have a ball throwing to them behind an offensive line that was ranked sixth by Pro Football Focus in 2020 and improved at left tackle by signing Charles Leno Jr., not to mention drafting Samuel Cosmi in Round 2.
After putting up a strong fight in the playoffs against the Buccaneers, Washington can build on that, appropriately deploy its multitude of roster upgrades and truly become a factor in the NFC — and quite possibly, the Super Bowl chase. Odds of +4000 are more than generous enough to place a small bet.