NFL Week 17 odds and point spreads are not what you might think. Unlike any other week of NFL action, there’s a lot of other factors to take into account.
The Los Angeles Chargers being favored over the defending champion Chiefs comes to mind first. With Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s starters likely sitting this out, it’s a must-avoid matchup in the betting world.
On the other hand, there’s a few huge NFL Week 17 games on top. Can the Chicago Bears shockingly earn a playoff appearance with a win over the Green Bay Packers? Who is set to come out on top in a huge NFC West tilt between the Rams and Cardinals?
Here, we look at the NFL Week 17 odds and point spreads with a brief analysis about each game.
Update: Jan. 3, 9:50 AM EST
Related: NFL Week 17 schedule, predictions
NFL Week 17 Sunday games, Vegas odds
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Jaguars-Colts Week 17 point spread: Colts -14.0 (over/under 48.5)
Now in position to land Trevor Lawrence with the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the Jaguars have lost their past three games by a combined 71 points. Doug Marrone and Co. have dropped 14 consecutive outings and are being outscored by an average of nearly 12 points per game. Taking on a Colts team that’s in need of a win to advance to the playoffs, Jacksonville has already called it for the 2020 season. Needless to say, Indianapolis at -14.0 seems to be a good bet in this NFL Week 17 game.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Titans-Texans Week 17 point spread: Titans -7.0 (over/under 55.0)
The early success that Houston saw under interim head coach Romeo Crennel is now a thing of the past. These Texans have dropped four consecutive games, including a brutal Week 16 loss to the hapless Cincinnati Bengals that saw their defense yield 37 points. All said, Houston has given up an average of 37 points over the past three games. Two of those outings against offenses in that of the Bears and Bengals who ranked in the bottom five of the NFL in scoring at the time. Putting up north of 31 points per game this season, the Titans are going to have no problem with Houston here.
Related: Texans head coach search
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Falcons-Buccaneers Week 17 point spread: Buccaneers -7.0 (over/under 50.5)
Up 14-10 against the defending champion Chiefs by virtue of a Laquon Treadwell touchdown late in the fourth quarter last week, the Falcons had an opportunity to right that wrongs that included multiple late-game meltdowns during a disastrous 2020 season. Instead, Atlanta allowed the Chiefs to drive down the field for a touchdown and a 17-14 win.
Atlanta has lost its past four games by a combined 15 points, three of them coming against teams that have already clinched playoff appearances. All said, eight of the Falcons’ 11 losses have come by one score this season. Could that change with the Buccaneers starters iffy for Week 17? Perhaps, but I would be somewhat leery of the Bucs’ seven-point spread.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Cowboys-Giants Week 17 point spread: Cowboys -1.5 (over/under 44.5)
Dallas’ 37-17 win over the Philadelphia Eagles last week represented the team’s third consecutive victory after starting 3-9 on the season. During this three-game run, Mike McCarthy and Co. are averaging nearly 33 points per game. It’s the first time since the start of the 2019 campaign that the Cowboys have reeled off three consecutive. The Giants are in a different boat heading into this must-win outing, having scored 26 points during their ongoing three-game skid. With Dallas at -1.5 heading into Jersey, the expectation is that it will cover (and then some).
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Jets-Patriots Week 17 point spread: Patriots -3.0 (over/under 40.0)
It’s rather hilarious to look at. By virtue of their Week 15 upset win over the Rams and last Sunday’s victory against Cleveland, these Jets have won two consecutive games. It more than likely cost them an opportunity of landing consensus No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 NFL Draft. Soon-to-be fired head coach Adam Gase is also 5-4 with the Jets from Dec. 1 on in his two seasons. In every other game the Jets have played under Gase’s leadership, they are 4-18. Can’t believe I am saying this, but Bill Belichick and the struggling Patriots don’t make sense at -3.5
Related: Top Patriots QB options for 2021
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Chargers-Chiefs Week 17 point spread: Chargers -5.5 (over/under 43.0)
Update: Patrick Mahomes won’t play, Chad Henne to start
This is how you know NFL Week 17 can get wonky. The Chargers are more than a field goal favorite to take out a Chiefs team that has won 23 of its past 24, postseason included, since Week 10 of the 2019 season. Interestingly enough, the Chargers have also played these Chiefs well during the Patrick Mahomes era. Only 28 points separate these two teams in the five games they’ve played since the start of the 2018 season. With Mahomes and fellow starters resting in Week 17, I fully expect Los Angeles to finish its season winners of four consecutive.
Related: Top NFL Rookie of the Year favorites
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Vikings-Lions Week 17 point spread: Vikings -4.0 (over/under 54.0)
How bad is it in Detroit right now? Chase Daniel and David Blough both saw action during an humiliating 47-7 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 16. That game was so out of hand that Tom Brady was pulled after two quarters, harkening back memories of small-school pay-for-play models in college football. All said, the Lions have given up 195 points over the past five games. Even without the Vikings playing for anything after being eliminated, Kirk Cousins and Co. couldn’t possibly screw this up, right? It’s NFL Week 17. Expect anything.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Steelers-Browns Week 17 point spread: Browns -9.5 (over/under 43.5)
Update: Jarvis Landry, other top Browns WR’s, to be activated from COVID-19 list
Unfortunate. One day before their Week 16 matchup against the then one-win Jets, the Browns learned that their top-four receivers would be out due to COVID-19 protocols. A win last week would have all but guaranteed a rare playoff appearance for Cleveland. Instead, they need a Week 17 win over Pittsburgh or some help in order to make the postseason for the first time since 2002. This, despite the fact that Cleveland is 10-5 on the season.
The good news? Pittsburgh will rest Ben Roethlisberger and other starters after clinching the AFC North last Sunday. The good news? Steelers quarterbacks not named Big Ben have thrown 29 touchdowns against 35 interceptions over the past decade. Don’t expect Mason Rudolph to be any different in Week 17, especially with Myles Garrett on the prowl. See what we did there?
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Ravens-Bengals Week 17 point spread: Ravens -14.0 (over/under 44.0)
Winners of four consecutive, Week 17 is rather simple for reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. If they are able to take out a suddenly hot Bengals squad come Sunday, the Ravens will earn a playoff spot after it looked a bit sketchy during Jackson’s bout with COVID-19. Baltimore’s four-game winning streak has included it averaging 37 points per. As for the Bengals being a roadblock? Well, Jackson is 4-0 in his career against Cincinnati and has led Baltimore to an average victory of 17.3 points in those four “contests.” Math can be your friend here.
Related: Ranking NFL’s top quarterbacks
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Packers-Bears Week 17 point spread: Packers -4.5 (over/under 49.5)
Do or die game for Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears. It’s actually pretty stunning what the embattled quarterback has done recently, leading to speculation heading into NFL Week 17 action that Chicago might actually re-sign him. The Bears have won three consecutive following last week’s 41-17 victory over Jacksonville. All said, Trubisky is leading this team to an average of 32.5 points over the past four games. Will it matter against the top-seeded Packers come Week 17? That all depends on whether Aaron Rodgers plays in an otherwise meaningless game for Green Bay. All he’s done in his career against the Bears is boast a 19-5 record with 51 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Chicago better hope the Packers rest their starters in this must-win game.
Related: NFL playoff predictions
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Saints-Panthers Week 17 point spread: Saints -6.0 (over/under 47.5)
Injury update: Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey, Saints RBs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray (COVID-19) out
Now that the Saints have nothing to play for, I am openly wondering whether Jameis Winston will actually be given a shot to prove himself heading into free agency. Regardless of that little tidbit, there’s another interesting backstory to this NFL Week 17 game. Carolina has not beaten a winning team since taking out the Saints back in Week 17 of the 2018 season. The common denominator here? New Orleans also rested its starters in that one. Fresh off a second win since Week 5, I fully expect history to repeat itself come Sunday.
Related: Top 25 potential NFL free agents of 2021.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Dolphins-Bills Week 17 point spread: Bills -1.5 (over/under 42.0)
It’s one of those NFL Week 17 games I would avoid from a betting perspective. Buffalo has very little to play for here given that it has clinched the AFC East and will not have a first-round bye. I fully expect head coach Sean McDermott to sit Josh Allen and Co.
On the other hand, Miami sits at 10-5 on the season and tied with four other teams for the final four playoff spots in the AFC. Even with a loss, the upstart Dolphins will earn a playoff appearance if one of Baltimore, Cleveland or Indianapolis loses on Sunday. Will Ryan Fitzpatrick get the start after leading the team to victory following the benching of Tua Tagovailoa last week? It’s an interesting storyline in a game I would avoid at all cost.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Seahawks-49ers Week 17 point spread: Seahawks -7.0 (over/under 46.0)
Update: Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams will not play for 49ers
Seattle has really nothing to play for outside of a top-two seed in a season that will see the second seed have to play a wildcard game. Does Pete Carroll really want to risk injury against a hungry 49ers squad that’s coming off a surprising Week 16 win over the Cardinals and is angry after an injury-plagued 2020 campaign? I am not too sure in this NFL Week 17 game.
Seattle at -4.5 could make sense if Russell Wilson and Co. were to suit up here. I just don’t see how the Seahawks can make the decision to do that. If not, look for the 49ers to win their final “home” game of the season in Arizona to finish a disappointing 7-9.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Cardinals-Rams Week 17 point spread: Cardinals -3.0 (over/under 41.0)
Injury update: Rams QB Jared Goff (thumb), Cooper Kupp (COVID) out
Injury update: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (leg) will play Week 17
As poorly as Jared Goff has played over the past three games (three touchdowns, three interceptions), Rams fans would more than be happy with him getting this Week 17 start in a do-or-die game. Instead, it looks like Los Angeles will be forced to roll with undrafted free agent John Wolford under center with Goff nursing a broken thumb.
Related: Is Jared Goff the answer in LA?
This could not be a better situation for a Cardinals team that’s in need of a win and some help in order to earn a playoff spot following last week’s humiliating home loss to the 49ers. Then again, Los Angeles fell to C.J. Beathard in that game. It was his second win in 11 career NFL starts and included the quarterback throwing for three scores. The theme here? This seems to be a pick em game.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Raiders-Broncos Week 17 point spread: Raiders -2.5 (over/under 50.5)
Speaking of pick em games, what do we even do about this one? By virtue of another late-game meltdown at the hands of the Dolphins in Week 16, Las Vegas has dropped five of six since a 6-3 start to the season. That six-game span has seen its defense give up an average of 34.3 points per game. Talk about disaster.
Related: Top Raiders QB options for 2021
Let us not forget about the Denver Broncos. They fell to the Chargers by the score of 19-16 in Week 16 and have seen 19 of their 35 games under Vic Fangio decided by one score. There’s a moral to this story. Expect a close game with Denver narrowly coming out on top.
NFL Week 17 Sunday Night Football, NFL betting odds
Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles
Washington-Eagles Week 17 point spread: Washington -4.0 (over/under 44.0)
Update: Eagles to start Jalen Hurts
NFL fans getting what they hoped for. A Week 17 game that could decide a division winner. The bad news? Said division winner could actually be 6-10 should the Giants defeat Dallas earlier on Sunday with Doug Pederson and the downtrodden Eagles taking out Washington on primetime.
The drama is real. Who will start under center for Washington after Alex Smith missed the past two games to injury? Could Dwayne Haskins make his way back from the abyss and lead WFT to a victory? Don’t bank on it. Since the start of the 2018 season, Smith is 10-5 as a starter. All other starting quarterbacks in the nation’s capital are 6-26 during that span. Riding Jalen Hurts, look for the Eagles to send D.C. to a dark cold winter. Of course, that’s dependent on the status of Mr. Smith.