Our NFL picks against the spread are back for Week 14 as the league prepares for the start continuation of the late-season slate.
Week 12 saw the Cincinnati Bengals defeat the Kansas City Chiefs in an upset home win as Sportsnaut’s predicted would happen. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders upset the division-rival Los Angeles Chargers at home. We also predicted this would come to fruition.
In this latest edition, we will focus on four games (listed below) that offer up NFL picks against the spread for Week 14 that are worth your while.
Also Read: Everything you need to know about the NFL Sunday Ticket
| Game | Time (ET) | TV |
| New York Jets (+9.5) @ Buffalo Bills | 1:00 PM | CBS |
| Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Detroit Lions | 1:00 PM | FOX |
| Houston Texans (+17.0) @ Dallas Cowboys | 1:00 PM | CBS |
| Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers (+3.0) | 4:25 PM | CBS |
New York Jets keep it close in Western New York
New York’s past three losses have come by a combined 17 points. Even with Mike White replacing an ineffective Zach Wilson under center, this team has been competitive when it doesn’t come out on top. It also must be noted that the Jets (seven wins) have already surpassed their preseason projection (5.5).
After surprisingly taking out the Bills at home in Week 9, New York has lost two of three. Though, it is also averaging 26.5 points and 476 yards with White starting over the past two outings. As for the Bills, their previous two wins during a three-game winning streak ahead of defeating the Patriots last week came by a combined 11 points. That included a narrow three-point win over the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving. What does this all mean? We expect this game to be closer than the 9.5-point current spread.
Related: Sportsnaut’s Week 14 NFL power rankings
Minnesota Vikings hand rarely-favored Lions team in-division loss
When was the last time a 10-2 team found itself as an underdog against a 5-7 squad? We’re not too sure. But that’s the situation Kirk Cousins and the first-place Minnesota Vikings find themselves in heading into Week 14 against a red-hot Lions team.
Let’s preface this prediction by indicating we’re not all-too confident in the Vikings pulling off another narrow win. Each of Minnesota’s past nine wins have come by one score. That included a narrow 27-22 defeat of the aforementioned Jets back in Week 13. For some reason, Cousins and Co. come to play when it counts the most.
Unfortunately, the Lions’ surprising playoff aspirations are hanging on by a thread because of their inability to win close games. Detroit lost to the Bills by three at home in Week 12. It also fell to the Miami Dolphins by just four points back in Week 8.
Related: Sportsnaut’s updated NFL Playoff predictions
NFL Picks lock: Houston Texans show some fight against the Cowboys
A 17-point spread in the NFL is almost unheard of. While it’s not the 28-point spread we saw between the Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars a decade ago, history suggests to go with the underdog. In fact, Denver won that game by 16 points despite being four-touchdown favorites.
There’s a lot that goes into picking a one-win team to cover against a squad coming off a 54-19 victory. But let’s look at it here. Only one of Houston’s 10 losses this season have come by 17-plus points. Despite going 5-24-1 in their past 30 outings dating back to the start of last season, Houston has lost only five of those games by 17 points or more (17%).
With blowout wins over the Chicago Bears (20 points), Minnesota Vikings (37 points) and Indianapolis Colts (35 points) over the past five weeks, one might be inclined to go with Dallas and the spread here. However, it’s also important to note that six of their previous 16 wins came by 17 points or more (38%). You can do the math from there. Dallas still wins, but it’s not going to be by 17.
Related: Ranking NFL defenses heading into Week 14
Los Angeles Chargers take out Miami Dolphins “at home”
at 6-6 on the season, the Chargers are battling for their playoff lives. Head coach Brandon Staley is also battling for his job after an ugly Week 13 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. Never underestimate desperation in the NFL.
As for the Miami Dolphins, they’ll again be without their two starting offensive tackles after being manhandled by the San Francisco 49ers defense a week ago. Sure Miami is a high-flying act on offense, but these injuries will have an impact moving forward.
Even with Joey Bosa sidelined, Los Angeles has the pass rush to put pressure on a hobbled Tua Tagovailoa in this one. That should be enough for the Chargers to pull off a small upset “at home” against Miami come Sunday afternoon.
For full disclosure, here’s a look at how we did with our NFL picks against the spread over the previous four weeks.