Our NFL picks against the spread are back for Week 13 as the league prepares for the start of the December slate.
Week 12 brought us very few surprises. For the most part, favored teams held court. Though, the Detroit Lions ability to keep it close against the Buffalo Bills on Thanksgiving lost some people money. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence pulled off a career-defining win in helping his Jacksonville Jaguars upset the Baltimore Ravens.
In this latest edition, we will focus on four games (listed below) that offer up NFL picks against the spread for Week 13 that are worth your while.
Also Read: Everything you need to know about the NFL Sunday Ticket
| Game | Time (ET) | TV |
| Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (+4.5) | 8:15 PM (Thursday) | Amazon Prime |
| Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions (+1.5) | 1:00 PM | FOX |
| Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders (+1.5) | 4:25 PM | CBS |
| Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) | 4:25 PM | CBS |
New England Patriots pull off home upset over the Buffalo Bills
At 6-5 on the season, New England finds itself in last place in the AFC East. With that said, the team is firmly in playoff contention and continues to play stellar football. Despite a loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Thanksgiving, the Patriots have proven that they can be competitive against superior teams.
They have also played extremely well at home as of late, yielding a total of six points over their past two games at Gillette Stadium.
As for the division-rival Bills, they just don’t seem to be the same team as earlier in the season. Buffalo has won consecutive games against mediocre squads in that of the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions by a combined 11 points. Prior to that, Buffalo fell to the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings.
Primarily, there’s been an issue surrounding mistakes from quarterback Josh Allen. He’s thrown seven interceptions over the past five games. As for the Patriots’ elite-level defense, they’ve yielded 15 passing touchdowns against 12 interceptions in 11 games. This should be enough for Bill Belichick’s squad to pull off the home upset on “Thursday Night Football.”
Detroit Lions earn fourth win in five games
Detroit found itself very much in Thanksgiving’s matchup against the aforementioned Bills. A win there would have put the team at 5-6 and in the thick of the NFC Playoff race with a fourth consecutive victory.
While these Lions fell by the score of 28-25, they have proven to be much more competitive under head coach Dan Campbell than most envisioned when the season started. In fact, five of the Lions’ seven losses have come by one score.
Enter into the equation this Week 13 matchup against a Jaguars team that upset the Ravens last week. Jacksonville finds itself as a rare road favorite despite losing 21 of its past 22 games away from Duval since December of 2019. We’re just not buying the Jaguars being able to go into Detroit and pull off the win. This is the one NFL picks for Week 13 that we’re most confident in.
Related: Sportsnaut’s NFL Week 13 power rankings
Las Vegas Raders send Los Angeles Chargers to ugly loss
It took a late-game miracle for Justin Herbert and the Chargers to defeat the Arizona Cardinals last week. It’s also just the latest example of Los Angeles playing down to the level of its competition under suddently embattled head coach Brandon Staley.
In fact, the Chargers’ six wins have come against teams with a combined 21-46-1 record. They have yet to defeat a team that is currently over .500.
As for Vegas, this squad is obviously playing out a lost season at 4-7. With that said, it is also showing a lot of fight under first-year head coach Josh McDaniels. That includes back-to-back road victories in overtime.
Josh Jacobs could really be the difference-maker in this one. Vegas’ running back put up 303 total yards in last week’s win over the Seattle Seahawks. He currently leads the NFL with 1,484 total yards on the campaign. He also has a positive matchup against a Chargers defense that has yielded 1,665 rushing yards at a clip of 5.4 yards per rush on the season. This should lead to a Raiders upset home win come Sunday.
Related: Ranking NFL defenses heading into Week 13
Cincinnati Bengals make statement against the Kansas City Chiefs
Bengals star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is likely set to retun from his lengthy absence when Cincinnati hosts Kansas City in a battle of AFC heavyweights Sunday afternoon. The expectation is that star running back Joe Mixon will return from his one-game hiatus due to a concussion.
With these two reinforcements likely back in the mix, Cincinnati takes its three-game winning streak into Week 13. Even without Chase in the mix, they are averaging 33.0 points during that span. Joe Burrow continues to play excellent football.
As for the Chiefs, they have won five consecutive games themselves. Though, their defense is giving up north of 25 points per game during this span. We expect Cincinnati to do just enough on offense to pull off the home upset and make a statement in the AFC.
For full disclosure, here’s a look at how we did with our NFL picks against the spread over the previous four weeks.