Pittsburgh Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt is in the midst of an excellent season. One that should earn him Defensive Player of the Year honors for the first time of his five-year career. For a moment, before missing Week 11 with hip and knee injuries, there was some thought he could even make a run at winning MVP.
While a defensive player hasn’t won MVP since Lawrence Taylor did it in 1986, Watt put a good effort forth in what could end up being the best year of his career.
- T.J. Watt stats (2021-22): 59 tackles, 20 TFL, 21.5 sacks, 6 PD, 4 FF, 3 FR
While Watt turned in his best season yet, a case could also be made that he’ll never be better than he is right now. Watt is 27, turns 28 next season and like several other elite pass rushers over the years once they get to that age, he’s unlikely to ever have another 21.5 sack season. Edge rushers don’t get better with age, they decline, like many other athletes in the sport.
Look at some of the best sack artists of our time. Bruce Smith, the NFL’s all-time sacks leader never had a better season than his age-27 year, when he compiled a career-high 19 sacks.
Alright, so Smith is the best of the best. What about No. 2? Even Reggie White never got back to the form he had in his 27-year old season, where he tallied 18 sacks. He had 21 the year before when he was younger, but not older. Not even Lawrence Taylor could stump Father Time, who had 20.5 sacks in his MVP season of ’86 when he was 27.
Sure, these are some examples we’ve picked out. It’s not hard to find a case where a veteran did turn in a career-best year even at their advanced age like the spaceman himself, Michael Strahan who racked up 22.5 sacks at age 30, but it’s more uncommon.
Perhaps our best, most relevant example is that of his own blood, his older brother J.J. Watt. This three-time Defensive Player of the Year’s best years came between the ages of 23-26, with his body seriously beginning to break down afterward.
Trading T.J. Watt now helps Steelers maximize value at his peak
I’m sure most Pittsburgh Steelers fans didn’t even make it this far down the article, but if you’re still here, props to you. Think of where the Steelers stand as an organization. They were on the brink of experiencing their first sub-.500 team in 15 years. It’s an incredible run, but there’s no telling what’s around the corner after Ben Roethlisberger‘s expected impending retirement.
With no quarterback, few future pieces on the offensive line, a draft pick expected to fall in the late teens, and an aging defense, the Steelers have some work to do before getting back to what would be the franchise’s ninth Super Bowl appearance.
One way the organization could look to jumpstart their retooling (not rebuilding) process is by actually considering trading T.J. Watt since his value will never be higher than it is right now. I know it’s not what any Steelers backer wants to see or hear, but it could put them in a position to compete for several seasons, instead of being several seasons away from competing.
New York Giants get their face of the franchise
- Pittsburgh Steelers trade: T.J. Watt
- New York Giants trade: 2022 first-round pick, 2022 first-round pick (via Chicago), 2022 third-round pick
There hasn’t been a worse team in the NFL over the past five years than the New York Giants. I don’t say that to be harsh, we’re simply going off their win-loss record. The organization as a whole lacks an identity. Not only that, they don’t have anyone on their roster who’s worth two first-round selections and are still trying to find their franchise QB.
One thing the G-Men do have working in their favor is their draft capital. Armed with an extra first-round pick, Big Blue could add a proven talent at any position, if they choose.
Is there any other defensive player who’s as good right now as T.J. Watt? No, there isn’t. While the Giants may not have a guaranteed solution at quarterback, they at least have Daniel Jones, the sixth-overall selection from 2019. It’s not unreasonable for the org to want to roll with Danny Dimes once again in 2022, choosing to build the team elsewhere.
This is where a Watt trade makes sense for both parties. The Steelers can pick up two first-round selections projected to land in the top-10 selections, which gives them a chance to select their next quarterback of the future, as well as a top offensive lineman to help lead the way. Losing Watt would hurt their pass-rush immensely, but with a total of three first-round selections, they can still try and address the position this April.
New York Jets finally find their elite pass-rusher
- Pittsburgh Steelers trade: T.J. Watt
- New York Jets trade: 2022 first-round pick (via Seattle), Mekhi Becton, 2022 second-round pick (via Carolina)
The New York Jets have tried to find a bonafide stud pass-rusher for a number of years now. It still hasn’t happened. They’ve been willing to overpay for linebackers in free agency, but have been spurned when the player preferred to stay in their comfort zone, as Anthony Barr did. But there’s always the draft, of which the Jets have two first-round selections this season and already have a quarterback they’re looking to develop.
One surefire way to make sure you hit on your draft picks is by trading them for established players, similar to what the Los Angeles Rams seem to do every season by acquiring Jalen Ramsey, Von Miller and more.
For the Jets, they already have their QB, left tackle, and left guard locked up. With a few of the key positions set, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Gang Green opted to finally lock down their elite edge-rusher too.
There have also been rumors of the Jets already looking to move on from Mekhi Becton as they’ve liked what George Fant has offered this season. If the Steelers could land a potential franchise left tackle who’s still on his rookie contract plus a top-10 pick for Watt, they could add their QB and still have a better offensive line than what Big Ben had to work with for his final few seasons. Win-win.
Philadelphia Eagles offer for T.J. Watt too good to refuse
- Pittsburgh Steelers trade: T.J. Watt
- Philadelphia Eagles trade: 2022 first-round pick (via Miami), 2022 first-round pick, 2022 first-round pick (via Indianapolis)
At first glance, this may seem like an absolute haul, but one could argue it’s actually much less compensation than the offers above. These three picks are projected to land at 14, 19, and 21, hardly enough for a blue-chip prospect or two, but still enough to add a lot of talent to an aging roster with several needs on both sides of the ball.
Already reaching the playoffs this season, the Eagles will have a whopping three first-round selections this April. The Eagles may be enticed by offering all three of them with the hopes that they are just one more game-wrecker away from reaching the Super Bowl in 2022. If the Steelers don’t immediately hang up the phone when teams call about a potential T.J. Watt trade, maybe there’s an opening for such a move.
Green Bay Packers shock the world
- Pittsburgh Steelers trade: T.J. Watt
- Green Bay Packers trade: Jordan Love, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pick, 2022 third-round pick
In this scenario, T.J. Watt gets to head back home, where he was born and raised and later attended Wisconsin, just like his older brother.
Maybe the Packers want to just give in to Aaron Rodgers already and show they are ready to go all-in on however many seasons he has left in the tank. Trading the man drafted to eventually replace him would send such a message, especially if it could help bring back a two-time All-Pro defender.
For the Steelers, they get to add a former first-round quarterback who’s been learning behind a Hall-of-Fame QB for the past two seasons in addition to two first-round picks expected to be in the late 20s, if not early 30s. It’s a huge gamble, but only the Steelers’ organization knows how they view Love as a prospect. Maybe they too liked his potential in the draft a year ago?
- T.J. Watt contract (2022): $31.1 million cap number, cap savings of just $2.6 million if traded before June 1
At the end of the day, a T.J. Watt trade from the Steelers would piss a lot of fans off in Pittsburgh and it doesn’t make a lot of sense from a financial standpoint this offseason. In the same sense, the potential assets a trade of this magnitude could bring may help them turn things around much sooner than the uncertainty of a Mason Rudolph or else future.
