When the Seattle Seahawks traded Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos and then announced Geno Smith as their starting quarterback, everyone presumed these two teams would head in polar opposite directions. Denver would compete for a Super Bowl and earn a spot in the NFL playoffs and Seattle would compete for the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
The surprise is about so much more than the NFL standings. Entering Week 6 at 2-3, it’s evident that neither the Seahawks nor the Broncos are a particularly good team right now. Seattle will likely regress closer to expectations and Denver should battle for a .500 record, but the wide disparity in performance between these two signal-callers is telling.
Related: Geno Smith off to a historic start in 2022 season
Among the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL this season, Wilson is pulling in the second-largest total cash ($57 million). Let’s put that comparison to Smith, who is tied for 30th at his position with a $3.5 million salary. Not only is Denver paying two first-round picks for Wilson, it’s costing them 16x the total Seattle’s quarterback will make this year and there is no long-term financial commitment to Smith.
While context matters for quarterback play, it’s worth diving into specific numbers to see how Geno Smith and Russell Wilson compare this year.
Geno Smith vs Russell Wilson throwing deep
Entering the regular season, many projected Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf to fall short of their typical stat lines because of the quarterback change. After all, what made the Seahawks’ offense so explosive for years was Wilson’s exceptional ability to place the football in the perfect spot on deep throws.
In 2020, Wilson ranked fourth in Pro Football Focus’ passing grade (95.4) on throws 20-plus yards downfield. With 12.8% of his attempts classified as deep passes, Wilson completed 38.7% of those attempts with 1,051 passing yards (5th in NFL), 14 touchdowns (2nd) and a 103.7 passer rating. Even in a 2021 season plagued by the finger injury, Wilson still posted an 89.7 PFF grade on deep shots.
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| Player | PFF Grade | QB Rating | YPA | TD-INT | Pass Yards | Completion Rate |
| Russell Wilson (2021) | 89.7 | 114.9 | 14.5 | 9-2 | 1,090 | 38.7% |
| Russell Wilson (2022) | 65.7 | 77.2 | 13.3 | 2-2 | 387 | 34.5% |
| Geno Smith (2022) | 94.5 | 120.1 | 17.1 | 6-1 | 324 | 57.9% |
Wilson has attempted more deep throws (170) than Smith (156), but the efficiency of the Seahawks’ quarterback and his ability to create far more big plays than turnover-worthy plays is more important. He put his accuracy on full display in Week 5 against the New Orleans Saints, delivering a 40-yard strike to Lockett that he placed perfectly in-between three defenders.
Meanwhile, in his age-33 season, Wilson’s accuracy on deep balls keeps dropping. After being one of the most accurate quarterbacks with his deep passing, the 5-foot-11 NFL star is fading. Losing Tim Patrick before the season certainly didn’t help the Broncos’ offense, but Wilson still has Courtland Sutton and his percentage of deep passes this season proves he doesn’t lack confidence in the current group.
Smith, age 32, is operating in the same system that Wilson played in last season. With him at the helm, Seattle’s passing attack ranks in the top five of EPA per play on deep pass attempts with a sizable edge over Denver. Of course, it’s not the only area where Smith is standing out.
Context, stats support Geno Smith over Russell Wilson
Not only is Denver investing significantly more money into Wilson, it is also providing him with a better offensive line. Entering Week 6, the Broncos’ offensive line is eighth in PFF’s rankings. It’s the result of a front five that ranks 12th in Pass Blocking Efficiency (88.0) with the 10th-fewest pressures (40) allowed. In comparison, the Seahawks offensive line ranks 20th with an 83.7 PBE and 49 pressures allowed.
- Geno Smith stats (2022): 75.2% completion rate, 113.2 QB rating, 9-2 TD-INT, 8.3 ypa, 261 pass ypg
- Russell Wilson stats (2022): 59.4% completion rate, 82.8 QB rating, 4-3 TD-INT, 7.4 ypa, 250.8 pass ypg
There are a variety of ways to look at how a quarterback is performing, especially when in comparison to another. Life is much easier for a quarterback when they can stand in a clean pocket, progress through their reads and make decisions without getting hit. It’s what they do when surrounded by defenders or on the verge of getting knocked down that can shine a light on their true level of performance.
Wilson has started 163 regular-season games in his NFL career, appearing in two Super Bowls and taking the field in countless situations with a lot at stake. Smith, on the other hand, has played in 50 career games with 101 combined pass attempts across 11 games from 2015-’20. Yet, the contrast between these two under pressure would suggest the opposite.
| Rate of Pressures | QB Rating | PFF Grade | TD-INT | Completion Rate | Sack Rate | |
| Russell Wilson | 30.6% | 52.3 | 39.6 | 0-1 | 46.3% | 7.6% |
| Geno Smith | 32.7% | 85.6 | 59.0 | 2-1 | 59.1% | 5.4% |
Whether it’s throwing deep, handling pressure or passes over the middle, Smith is doing far more for the Seahawks’ offense in 2022 than Wilson is for the Broncos’ offense right now. It’s reflected in the third-down conversion rate (48.2% vs 30.6%), first downs (98 vs 84), points per play (0.458 vs 0.236) and Expected Points (47.51 vs -18.28).
Next Gen Stats released a new metric in 2022 for evaluating quarterbacks called Passing Score. As detailed by Peter King, the grade uses a 50-99 scale to measure seven factors to weigh how a signal-caller is performing. Entering Week 6, Smith (95) has the highest Passing Score in the NFL with Wilson (80) in a distant 16th place.
Wilson can blame the injury he is playing through and the adjustment period from learning a new system, But Smith is easily outperforming him this year and doing so at a level that suggests Pete Carroll and the Seahawks’ offense wasn’t the problem.