When looking at NFL picks against the spread for Week 6, there are several games in which the Vegas’ line is suggesting close affairs. In fact, initial point spreads for Week 6 includes eight matchups with a spread of three points or less.
On the other hand, the Buffalo Bills (-14.0) find themselves as two-touchdown home favorites against the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football.
In another edition of this article for the 2023 NFL season, we will focus on the four games (listed below) that offer up NFL picks against the spread worth your bet.
NFL picks against the spread, Week 5 edition
| Game | Time (ET) |
| Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3.0) | 1:00 PM |
| New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans (+1.5) | 1:00 PM |
| Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.0) | 4:25 PM |
| New York Giants (+14.0) at Buffalo Bills | 8:20 PM |
Chicago Bears continue momentum against Minnesota Vikings
Under a huge microscope due to his on-field struggles and off-field comments heading into Week 5, Justin Fields proved naysayers wrong. For the second consecutive game, the former first-round pick looked very much the part. That included completing 15-of-29 passes for 282 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions as Chicago snapped its 14-game losing streak via a blowout 40-20 road win over the Washington Commanders.
- Justin Fields stats (past two games): 67% completion, 617 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT, 131.3 QB rating
One has to wonder if Fields has taken that next step in the maturation process under offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. The two looked to be dialed in against what is supposed to be a darn good Commanders defense. Meanwhile, new Bears wide receiver D.J. Moore caught eight passes for 230 yards and three touchdowns in the win.
On the other side, Minnesota has now lost four of five to open the season. Its defense has been a disaster class against the pass, yielding nine touchdowns against zero interceptions for an opposing 110.8 QB rating. Wide receivers have also hauled in 78% of their targets against this unit. With Justin Jefferson also hobbled by a hamstring injury, we’re not sure if Kirk Cousins and Co. will be able to do enough to avoid what would be a disastrous road loss on Sunday.
Related: Sportsnaut’s NFL power rankings heading into Week 6
Houston Texans get back on track (NFL picks lock)
The Texans came so very close to their first three-game winning streak since back in 2018 last week on the road against the Atlanta Falcons. Stud rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud hit Dalton Schultz on an 18-yard touchdown with 1:49 remaining in the fourth quarter to give the Texans a 19-18 lead. Unfortunately, they couldn’t stop Atlanta from winning on a Younghoe Koo field goal as time expired.
For a young team such as Houston, it’s important to forget what happened at the end of said game. Set to return home Sunday against the New Orleans Saints, we’re expecting a rebound performance from Houston. The Texans defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers at home back in Week 4 by the score of 30-6. Meanwhile, Stroud has been brilliant inside NRG Stadium as a rookie.
- C.J. Stroud stats (at home): 60% completion, 690 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 106.5 QB rating
New Orleans’ shutout win over the New England Patriots might have been fool’s gold last week. After all, Dennis Allen’s squad was taking on a team that’s now been outscored by a margin of 72-3 over the past two games. Bill Belichick’s team is seen as a laughingstock around the NFL. The Saints won’t have the same fortune this coming week.
Related: NFL Playoff and Super Bowl predictions heading into Week 6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers make statement coming out of bye
Why would anyone pick against the red-hot Detroit Lions right now? They went into Arrowhead and defeated the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs back in Week 1. Detroit then dismantled the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers by a combined margin of 76-44 over the past two weeks.
This is all fine and dandy. But we can’t sleep on a Buccaneers team that comes out of its bye with a 3-1 record and in first place in the NFC South. Baker Mayfield continues to play stellar football in his first season with Tampa Bay (7 TD, 2 INT, 101.5 QB rating). Meanwhile, the Bucs’ only loss came against the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles at home back in Week 3. We’re going to pick the home team to pull off a slight upset.
Related: NFL Week 6 QB rankings
New York Giants keep it somewhat close against Buffalo Bills
If you have been following our NFL picks against the spread articles this season, you know we’re not huge fans of huge point spreads. And while everything seems to be pointing in the direction of a blowout Bills home win over a struggling Giants team on Sunday Night Football, there are other factors involved.
Buffalo is licking its wounds after a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in London last week. That type of travel without a bye week could impact the Bills in this one.
Meanwhile, New York’s season is absolutely on the brink in this one. Whether it’s Daniel Jones or Tyrod Taylor under center, we’re expecting an inspired effort from New York. It also doesn’t hurt that star running back Saquon Barkley is trending towards playing in this one.