The NASCAR Xfinity Series is poised to have a massive shift in competitiveness among its top drivers as the top-3 drivers in the division are all expected to move into the NASCAR Cup Series for the 2023 season.
Who will be moving to the Cup Series and what is going to happen next for the Xfinity Series?
Top NASCAR Xfinity Series drivers expected to move up in 2023
The top-3 drivers in the NASCAR Xfinity Series during the 2022 season are all expected to move up to the top level starting in 2023. One of them has already been confirmed as of now.
Noah Gragson will drive the No. 42 car for Petty GMS Motorsports after running approximately half of the Cup Series events this season. It will be the first time Gragson enters the Cup Series on a full-time basis.
The 24-year-old driver is in the midst of his breakout season in NASCAR with the No. 9 car for JR Motorsports. Gragson has seven wins, 16 top-5 finishes, 21 top-10 finishes, and a 9.1 average finish. It is by far his best season to date.
Gragson also won four straight races, all coming during September, which tied Sam Ard for the most consecutive victories in the Xfinity Series. He has fully established himself as the championship favorite.
Ty Gibbs is expected to take over the No. 18 car for Joe Gibbs Racing after Kyle Busch announced that he would leave the organization for Richard Childress Racing. However, it won’t be Gibbs’ first taste of Cup Series action.
The 20-year-old has been substituting for Kurt Busch after he suffered concussion-like symptoms from his qualifying wreck at Pocono Raceway. But, Gibbs would have the third-worst average finish of any full-time driver, only ahead of Corey LaJoie and Cody Ware.
It has not been pretty for Gibbs on the Cup Series side, including a big penalty at Texas Motor Speedway, but the Xfinity Series has been better with five wins, 11 top-5 finishes, 18 top-10 finishes, and a 10.4 average finish.
There should be reasonable expectations for the grandson of Joe Gibbs ahead of the 2023 season as it will take a few years for him to start competing at a high enough level to win races consistently.
Finally, A.J. Allmendinger is expected to drive the No. 16 car for Kaulig Racing with an announcement coming on Wednesday, according to The Athletic’s Jordan Bianchi. It won’t be the first time Allmendinger races in the Cup Series.
The 40-year-old spent eight full-time seasons and 15 years overall in the series. Over that period of time, Allmendinger collected two wins with his latest coming in 2021 at the Indianapolis Road Course with Kaulig Racing.
Allmendinger has spent the last two seasons in the Xfinity Series with nine victories. He has four wins, 14 top-5 finishes, 25 top-10 finishes, and a 6.1 average finish during the 2022 season.
All three drivers combine for 16 of the 28 victories during the 2022 Xfinity Series season, so a massive shift at the top of the series is going to occur next season.
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What is next for the NASCAR Xfinity Series regarding the 2023 season
Gragson, Gibbs, and Allmendinger have been the class of the field during the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series season. In fact, they are in the top-3 spots with Justin Allgaier tying Gibbs for the third spot overall.
However, Allgaier is a steady and consistent contender every single year in the Xfinity Series. The rest of the puzzle is what needs to be sorted out as a massive shift at the top begins.
Over the course of the entire season, Allgaier is the top driver among those who are expected to return. The next driver is Josh Berry who remains 81 points back behind the top-4 drivers in the series.
If the three drivers expected to leave at the conclusion of this season were not present, the favorites for the Championship 4 would be Allgaier, Berry, Austin Hill, and Brandon Jones. The competition is far behind those four drivers.
The Xfinity Series is poised for a massive shift but what about the drivers who are leaving? Allmendinger leaves the No. 16 car for Kaulig Racing open. Will the organization downsize to two vehicles or will they poach someone like Chandler Smith?
Gragson left the No. 9 car for JR Motorsports vacant; however, Jones will take over his ride next season. Gibbs is likely leaving for the Cup Series, so the entirety of Joe Gibbs Racing is cleared out as of now.
Sammy Smith, John Hunter Nemechek, and Trevor Bayne could all be candidates to join the organization. If any of this combination or something else happens, Joe Gibbs Racing would enter the championship mix.
Some of the new drivers will inevitably enter the picture but other drivers within the series could pick up the slack. Sam Mayer, Sheldon Creed, and Riley Herbst could all see increased performances because of an open field.
The NASCAR Cup Series field almost seems set for the 2023 season while the Xfinity Series and NASCAR Truck Series are going to have some of the most memorable silly season movements in recent memory.
The stage is set for a wild silly season in the Xfinity Series and that does not even include the unpredictability of what is going to come in 2023.