This week, we’re going to hear all about an angry Kansas City Chiefs team headed to Allegiant Stadium to thump the Las Vegas Raiders. Well, the Raiders should also be upset that they allowed the Miami Dolphins to get away with a 20-13 win despite their sloppiest offensive performance of the season.
So, we should have two ticked-off AFC West teams in this matchup, which may result in a physical competitive contest.
Speaking of physicality, the Raiders must stick to their identity to beat the Chiefs and that starts with Josh Jacobs.
Last week, the Raiders didn’t trail the Dolphins by more than seven points in the game, but they went light on the ground. Miami deserves credit for limiting Las Vegas to 2.3 yards per carry, but Jacobs ran the ball 14 times (seven carries in each half). Meanwhile, rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell recorded 41 pass attempts.
Related: Week 12 NFL schedule
Commitment to an identity
Even though the Raiders have a well-rounded pass-catching group with Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow, Tre Tucker and Michael Mayer, they won’t win many games with a pass-heavy approach.
In victories against the New York Giants and New York Jets, the Raiders ran the ball 32-plus times. Of course, they had more success in terms of yards per carry against those teams, but they stuck with a run-heavy game plan while Jacobs averaged 3.8 yards per rush attempt against Big Blue.
As O’Connell learns on the job, the Raiders will need to rely on Jacobs and the short passing game, which is enough to beat the Chiefs on Sunday.
Through 11 weeks, the Chiefs allow the fifth-most yards per carry (4.5). They’ve given up at least 114 yards on the ground in each of their last five games. In that span, opposing teams have averaged 127.6 rushing yards against Kansas City’s defense.
The Chiefs can get after the quarterback with Chris Jones, George Karlaftis III and Michael Danna, who have 20 sacks combined, but the Raiders can counter Kansas City’s aggressive front with well-timed runs between the tackles.
More targets for Josh Jacobs in short passing game
In case Jacobs struggles to find room to run, as he did last week, the Raiders should take a page out of the Philadelphia Eagles’ second-half game plan from last Monday night.
Through the first half, the Eagles had little success in the passing game against the Chiefs. Wideout DeVonta Smith racked up about a third of the Eagles’ 150 receiving yards on a 41-yard reception.
In the second half, Philadelphia featured D’Andre Swift in the short passing game. He caught three passes for 31 yards, all in the third and fourth quarters. The dual-threat running back racked up 107 yards from scrimmage and scored a touchdown on the ground.
Offensive coordinator Bo Hardegree can set up Jacobs for a big day with at least 25 carries and some targets to back the linebackers away from the box, forcing them to move laterally, and getting the safeties to move away from their perimeter positions, which may open up the field for the Raiders’ pass-catchers.
In three out of 11 outings this season, Jacobs has caught at least five passes. He recorded eight receptions for 81 yards in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Chargers, who limited him to 3.4 yards per carry.
Of course, O’Connell should take shots downfield to keep Kansas City’s defenders honest before the snap, but Hardegree can also utilize Jacobs as a pass-catcher to loosen up the Chiefs’ fourth-ranked defense.
Related: Las Vegas Raiders: Antonio Pierce must solve offensive woes to retain job permanently
Raiders have offensive personnel limitations
Unlike the Eagles, the Raiders don’t have a quarterback who can routinely pick up yards with his legs. On top of that, Zamir White hasn’t shown much as a backup running back, averaging just 3.7 yards per touch. Ameer Abdullah has a negligible role, playing 17 percent of the offensive snaps so far this season.
In reality, the Raiders don’t have much of a choice other than Jacobs in their backfield. If he doesn’t get going, it’s tough sledding for the ground game.
In Las Vegas’ upcoming matchup with Kansas City’s suspect run defense, Jacobs has to be the engine of the offensive attack.
In addition to a focus on Kansas City’s vulnerable interior defense, Jacobs can help the Raiders sustain drives, which would keep the Chiefs offense off the field. If Las Vegas doesn’t turn the ball over and dominates time of possession, it would leave Kansas City’s middling scoring offense (ranked 14th leaguewide) little time to string together scoring drives and mount a sizeable lead.
Through 11 weeks, the Raiders have struggled with offensive consistency, but it’s clear who needs to have a big game in their crucial Week 12 matchup with the Chiefs. As long as O’Connell protects the football and makes timely throws, they’ll go as far as Jacobs takes them.
Related: See where Aidan O’Connell lands in Sportsnaut’s NFL QB rankings
Maurice Moton covers the Raiders for Sportsnaut. You can follow him on Twitter at @MoeMoton.