College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Predictions for every game

The first round of the College Football Playoff was a bit anticlimactic. All four games were blowouts, with the home teams completely dominating in front of their raucous crowds with well-rounded performances. Fortunately, the next round should be much better. Let’s dive into our College Football Playoff quarterfinals predictions for the four matchups in two weeks.

(6) Penn State Nittany Lions 27, (3) Boise State Broncos 17

Ashton Jeanty is going to get as many carries as he can handle in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, it just won’t be nearly enough to win. Penn State allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game (103.8) and the 12th-fewest yards per carry (3.3) during the regular season. For as historically great as Jeanty has been, the Nittany Lions have the defense to contain him. When Boise State puts the ball in Maddux Madsen’s hands, the quarterback who had a 44.3% completion rate versus pressure this season, will make bad decisions and off-target throws against the Nittany Lions pass rush. Much like against SMU, Penn State’s defense will do the heavy lifting in a win.

(5) Texas Longhorns 31, (4) Arizona State Sun Devils 20

Quinn Ewers still doesn’t look healthy, but the Texas Longhorns at least re-committed to the ground game in the first round. Limiting how often Ewers is dropping back is probably for the best, especially considering the talent advantage Texas will have up front against the Arizona State Sun Devils. When Ewers does drop back, though, he’ll have time to throw versus a Sun Devils defense that finished the season ranked 122nd in sack rate (4.07 percent).

On the other side of the ball, with Arizona State’s No. 1 receiver Jordyn Tyson potentially out, it’s all about stopping Cam Skattebo. The Longhorns’ run defense has excelled this season, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry (8th in FBS) with the 11th-fewest rushing first downs per game (6.2). While Skattebo might break off a handful of runs, the defensive advantage and experience Texas has should make this a one-sided game.

(7) Notre Dame Fighting Irish 20, (2) Georgia Bulldogs 17

The Carson Beck injury is a game-changer. Now, sophomore quarterback Gunner Stockton is thrown into a situation where his first start comes in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. All against a Notre Dame Fighting Irish defense that boats a 7.86 percent sack rate (28th in FBS), with the second-lowest average QB rating (96.9) and the lowest completion rate (49.6 percent) allowed this season. Georgia will certainly turn more to the run game, which saved them in the SEC Championship Game, but it’s worth noting the Bulldogs ranked 63rd in yards-per-carry average (4.4) this fall.

It all puts the pressure squarely on the Bulldogs defense. We’ve seen this unit rise to the occasion twice versus Texas – 17 PPG allowed – but it’s also been gashed by Georgia Tech, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Alabama. It should be a great defensive battle, but we’re expecting the three-headed rushing attack of Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price and Riley Leonard to pull out a win for Notre Dame.

(1) Georgia Bulldogs 31, (8) Ohio State Buckeyes 28

This should easily be the best matchup in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. The Oregon Ducks and Texas Longhorns were arguably the two best teams in the nation this year, as we saw in a thrilling 32-31 game back in October. This time around, the Ducks won’t have the home-field edge.

One thing Oregon can do that Tennessee couldn’t versus Ohio State is protect the quarterback (2.65 percent sack rate allowed versus 7.45 percent sack rate). Both teams will run the football effectively, as they did in their last meeting (296 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns combined). In a back-and-forth game, we’re giving the edge to the better quarterback with Dillon Gabriel leading a game-winning drive in the final 3 minutes. For all intents and purposes, this is the national championship game. Whoever wins Oregon vs Ohio State will be national champions.