The Boston Red Sox started the week losing two of three on the road to the 27-72 Oakland Athletics. They’ve also spent a decent amount of time in last place in the AL East this season. Yet, the Red Sox could be poised to sneak up on some teams over the next couple of months in their bid for October baseball. They sit at 51-46, six games over .500, with a record good enough to lead the AL Central.
Despite being 8.5 games out in the AL East and almost being an afterthought in the division through the first half, the Sox are just three back of the Toronto Blue Jays for the third wild-card spot in the American League.
Toronto is the perfect team for them to be chasing since the Sox are 7-0 against the Jays this season. Boston has six games left against the Blue Jays, three at home from August 4-6, then three on the road September 15-17. Every game on the baseball calendar is important, but those six in particular could end up having big playoff implications.
Before the Baltimore Orioles win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday night that vaulted them into first in the division, the Red Sox and O’s had the exact same record (16-11) against the AL East. Baltimore is now 17-11, same as Tampa Bay. The Yankees are 13-17, while the Blue Jays are 7-20. Boston is hanging with the right company. Twenty-five of their remaining 65 games are against the AL East.
While their remaining strength of schedule is the sixth-toughest in MLB, that could actually play into Boston’s favor. So far this season the Sox are 33-28 against teams with a winning record, and 18-18 when they face a team below .500.
Related: Boston Red Sox MLB trade deadline approach
Boston Red Sox bringing reinforcements
If the Red Sox are going to make a push, they’ll need some key players for an October push. Trevor Story is set to begin his rehab assignment by playing shortstop in Double-A for five innings on Friday and Sunday with a game at DH on Saturday. With position players not able to be on a rehab assignment for longer than 20 days, if all progresses as planned for Story, August 9th would be the end of that 20-day span. He may need that entire time, but the hope is that within three weeks the Sox can get a big boost at short.
Offensively, Boston’s 59 wRC+ at shortstop ranks 28th, 41% below league average. In the month or so that Pablo Reyes was with the Sox after being acquired from Oakland, he was a nice fill-in, but he has been on the IL since June 23rd with an abdominal strain. Sox manager Álex Cora told reporters before Wednesday’s game that Reyes’ rehab assignment ends on Sunday, and that a decision with his next steps would follow.
Enrique Hernández has gotten into 63 of 97 games at short and ranks as the second-worst defensively at the position with -12 outs above average (OAA) per Statcast. Story was Boston’s second baseman with Xander Bogaerts at short last season, and he was one of the best defenders in baseball in 2022, ranking in the 97th percentile in OAA.
Throughout his career, Story has been well above and also well below league average defensively at short, so we’ll have to wait and see how he fares in the field upon his return, but at the dish he should present an upgrade.
Cora also told reporters that Chris Sale felt good after his bullpen and will have another this weekend. A rehab stint isn’t in the cards quite yet. “Probably two live bp’s (batting practice) then he’ll go on the rehab assignment. The next step is the bullpen.”
There is also a target date for catcher Reese McGuire, which Cora put at July 25th or right around there, to go on a rehab assignment. Reliever John Schrieber pitched back-to-back days on Wednesday and Thursday, totaling two innings, zero hits allowed, and recorded three strikeouts. “[His return] looks more like the Atlanta series than the Mets series.” That series against Atlanta begins on Tuesday in Boston.
Cora said of this weekend’s series against the New York Mets, “We better kick their [expletive]. I don’t care about the Mets, but the third base coach (his brother, Joey) we gotta kick their [expletive].”
Pitchers Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck are both “feeling good” though no timetable or plan for their recovery was discussed. All in all, the Red Sox could be getting a bounty of upgrades around the diamond just from the IL in the next few weeks.
Related: Updated MLB trade rumors
Boston Red Sox swingin’ deals?
The Red Sox are reportedly looking to add a back-of-the-rotation starter that can eat innings, and a righty reliever to help bridge the gap to veteran closer Kenley Jansen.
Earlier this week, I took a look at some under-the-radar pieces that could be moved at the trade deadline and found them some landing spots. In the piece, A’s reliever Trevor May was mentioned (though I sent him elsewhere), and he could fit that need that Boston is looking to fill as a righty reliever. While his 4.91 ERA could cause fans to scoff, since his return from the IL in May, the right-hander has been fantastic, saving eight games and holding a 2.81 ERA over 19.2 innings. If the Red Sox are looking for a righty rental, may I interest you in Trevor?
In terms of rental starters, they could go with either Jordan Montgomery or Jack Flaherty of the St. Louis Cardinals, All Star Michael Lorenzen of the Detroit Tigers, or even bring back old friend Rich Hill for the fourth time. There are plenty of back-end starters that could be made available for Boston.
Lorenzen is particularly interesting given that they’re looking for an innings eater. With Detroit, he has completed at least five innings in every start this season since his first of the year. He holds a 3.49 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP on the year, and part of the reason he’s having that success is that he’s throwing more strikes than he has in his career.
Related: Boston Red Sox standing in our MLB power rankings
Postseason bound?
The big question that the front office has to be asking themselves when they look at the injured list and potential additions at the trade deadline is: Will it be enough? There is no surefire way to tell. A lot of the answer to that question depends on when the reinforcements arrive from the IL, and what their level of play will be after returning from injury. If Story, Sale, Whitlock, Houck, et al. are performing similarly to their career norms, the the Sox could be in good shape.
It seems like every season there is a team that isn’t grabbing the headlines early on, but they do enough to stay in the thick of the playoff hunt undetected. This year the Red Sox could be that team. October baseball isn’t necessarily about which team is the best. It’s about coming through in big spots, surprise heroes, and having a relatively healthy group of guys.
It’s impossible to predict which teams will come through in big spots, or who the surprise heroes will be (that’s why it’s a surprise!), but the Boston Red Sox are closing in on being relatively healthy, and that could be the first step to punching their ticket to the postseason.