Our Week 16 NFL picks against the spread include a Christmas Day game in which the Philadelphia Eagles will continue to struggle against the division-rival New York Giants.
We’re also not sold on the Buffalo Bills going into Southern California and blowing out the dreadful Los Angeles Chargers. The reason? Los Angeles has a new coaching staff after firing Brandon Staley following last week’s 63-21 loss to Vegas. Players have a way of responding to changes like this.
These are among our Week 16 NFL picks against the spread. Check them all out below.
Related: Week 16 NFL power rankings
NFL picks against the spread, Week 16 edition
| Game | Date, time |
| New Orleans Saints (+4.0) @ Los Angeles Rams | Dec. 21, 8:15 PM ET |
| Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers (+12.0) | Dec. 23, 8:00 PM ET |
| Indianapolis Colts (+1.0) @ Atlanta Falcons | Dec. 24, 1:00 PM ET |
| New York Giants (+11.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles | Dec. 25, 4:30 PM ET |
New Orleans Saints pull off road upset in Los Angeles
The Los Angeles Rams have been doing their thing recently. Sean McVay has the team at 7-7 with four wins in its past five games. Matthew Stafford has thrown 13 touchdowns against two interceptions during this five-game span.
That’s the good news heading into Week 16. The bad news? These four wins have come against teams with a combined 23-33 record, including victories over the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders.
With the NFC Playoff race hitting its final stretch run, pressure is going to be on Los Angeles to maintain home-field advantage against another 7-7 team in that of the Saints. New Orleans is coming off consecutive blowout wins over the Panthers and Giants in which its defense gave up a combined 12 points. While the Rams’ offense offers a completely different test, we like defenses to come out in situations like this with a playoff spot on the line. Go with the road team, and thank us later.
Related: Los Angeles Rams playoff changes up to 56%
Los Angeles Chargers stay close against Buffalo Bills
There is something to be said about organizations that fire their head coach. The team seems to play much better early on with an interim coach taking over. A prime example of this would be the Las Vegas Raiders destroying Los Angeles by the score of 63-21 last week with Antonio Pierce leading the charge.
That ultimately led to the Chargers firing head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco within hours. Inside linebackers coach Giff Smith now takes over on an interim basis for the 5-9 Chargers. Whether he’s going to change the culture like we saw with the Raiders and Carolina Panthers after the latter fired Frank Reich remains to be seen.
What we do know is that being 12-point home underdogs in today’s NFL is an exception to the rule. It does not take into account the dynamics mentioned above.
Fresh off a blowout win over the Dallas Cowboys last week, we like Buffalo to come out on top in this one. We just expect Los Angels to cover. That’s especially true with the Bills having to travel clear across the country on a short week.
Related: Los Angeles Chargers job not all it’s cracked up to be
Minshew Magic continues for Indianapolis Colts (NFL picks against the spread lock)
Gardner Minshew has won six of 10 since taking over for the injured Anthony Richardson as Indianapolis’ starting quarterback. That includes five wins in the team’s past six games with Minshew accounting for eight touchdowns compared to three interceptions.
There is something to be said about having consistency at the quarterback position when vying for a playoff spot. Atlanta simply does not have that. Veteran journeyman Taylor Heinicke replaces a benched Desmond Ridder for the second time this season as the 6-8 Falcons look to remain alive in the NFC Playoff race. The Falcons have lost five of seven and simply haven’t been doing it on offense. As minor road underdogs, we like the Colts here.
Related: NFL Week 16 Playoff and Super Bowl predictions
Philadelphia Eagles’ struggles continue on Christmas
Some might expect the Eagles — losers of three consecutive — to take their frustrations out on the New York Giants. We’re not buying it. Philadelphia allowed Drew Lock to drive the Seattle Seahawks 92 yards down the field for a game-winning touchdown in Week 14. Yes, Drew Lock.
No one is going to mistake Tommy DeVito for the second coming of Tom Brady. But he has shown an ability to do things both on the ground and with his arm. The Eagles have yielded 30 passing touchdowns compared to six interceptions on the season. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts has turned the ball over a whopping 17 times in four games. These are both indications that New York will at least keep this Christmas Day game close.
Related: NFL Week 16 defense rankings
NFL picks against the spread results
- Week 1: 4-1
- Week 2: 2-3
- Week 3: 1-3
- Week 4: 1-3
- Week 5: 2-2
- Week 6: 3-1
- Week 7: 3-1
- Week 8: 3-1
- Week 9: 0-4
- Week 10: 3-1
- Week 11: 3-1
- Week 12: 2-2
- Week 13: 3-1
- Week 14: 3-1
- Week 15: 1-2
- Total: 34-27