Our NFL picks against the spread last week provided varying results. The Houston Texans and Minnesota Vikings pulled off major upsets, making us look good. About the New York Giants? Yeah, they did not cover against the Dallas Cowboys.
This week, there are certainly some interesting matchups. In the midst of a two-game winning streak, the Las Vegas Raiders find themselves as near two-touchdown underdogs on the road against the Miami Dolphins.
Moving forward, we now look at Week 11 and what that slate has to offer for NFL picks.
NFL picks against the spread, Week 11 edition
| Game | Date, time |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.0) at Cleveland Browns | Nov. 19, 1:00 PM ET |
| Las Vegas Raiders (+13.5) at Miami Dolphins | Nov. 19, 1:00 PM ET |
| Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Denver Broncos | Nov. 19, 8:20 PM ET |
| Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs | Nov. 20, 8:15 PM ET |
Pittsburgh Steelers take advantage of Deshaun Watson injury
The loss of Deshaun Watson for the season with a shoulder injury really impacts Cleveland’s odds moving forward. Sure, the team is 6-3 on the season. It also boasts one of the best defenses in the NFL. Meanwhile, Watson was not playing at a Pro Bowl level. That’s all fine and dandy. But the idea of starting a rookie in Dorian Thompson-Robinson makes no sense.
Head coach Kevin Stefanski and Co. went in this direction rather than going with veteran P.J. Walker. In his only start this season back in Week 4 against the Baltimore Ravens, DTR threw three interceptions. It resulted in an ugly 28-3 loss.
We’re not expecting Kenny Pickett and Pittsburgh’s offense to do much against Cleveland’s stout defense. But is should do just enough to pull off the mini upset while sending the Steelers to their fifth win over the past six games. After all, Mike Tomlin’s defense has given up just 12 passing touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions in nine games this season. DTR is in for a rude awakening.
Las Vegas Raiders keep it close against Miami Dolphins (NFL picks lock)
As we noted last week, we’re not fans of huge point spreads. But unlike the New York Giants, Las Vegas is playing some decent football. There is something to be said about the change of culture and attitude since the Raiders fired Josh McDaniels and replaced him with Antonio Pierce on an interim basis.
We’ve seen it on the field with Vegas winning its first two games under Pierce. We have also seen it in the locker room after games. The spirit is there. They are having fun playing football. They are surprisingly in the AFC Playoff race heading into Week 11.
While we are not expecting Vegas to go into South Beach with rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell and win, the near two-touchdown spread is somewhat disrespectful. We can fully expect Pierce to play into that narrative with his team heading into this one.
It also must be noted that reigning NFL rushing champion Josh Jacobs has picked it up big time since Bo Hardegree took over play-calling duties. He’s put up 214 rushing yards in two games. The Raiders will want to play ball-control offense to keep Tua Tagovailoa and Co. off the field. If that does happen, expect a closer game than the point spread indicates.
Related: Week 11 NFL picks from Sportsnaut experts
Minnesota Vikings run continues
Minnesota has now won five consecutive games since a 1-4 start to the season. That includes victories over playoff contenders such as the San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints. It is 2-0 with Joshua Dobbs starting over the injured Kirk Cousins.
We went fully with Minnesota last week before it disposed of the Saints. Expect the same end result come Week 11 despite these Vikings taking on another surprising Broncos squad that defeated the Bufalo Bills last week.
Primarily, we love this matchup for Jordan Addison and the Vikings’ wide receiver group. Denver has yielded a 69% completion to wide receivers on the season. If Justin Jefferson is able to return from his five-game hiatus, that’ll be magnified even further.
Philadelphia Eagles exact revenge
Somehow, people forget just how good Jalen Hurts was in Philadelphia’s narrow 38-35 loss to Kansas City in February’s Super Bowl. He accounted for 374 total yards and four touchdowns in a record-setting performance.
Some say Hurts is in the midst of a down season with just 15 touchdown passes in nine games. But he’s added seven scores on the ground and is averaging nearly 300 total yards per game.
Rather, it’s Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense that has not necessarily lived up to expectations. He’s on pace for 32 touchdowns and 15 interceptions after putting up a 41-to-12 split a season ago. The Chiefs are averaging nearly a touchdown less per game. While they do boast the league’s second-best scoring defense, we like Philadelphia to step up on that side of the ball. They are yielding just 66 rushing yards per game. If Philly can make Kansas City one-dimensional, it will lead to a mistake from Mahomes and a statement win for the Eagles.
