When looking at NFL picks against the spread for Week 4, one must take into account some pretty evenly-matched contests on the docket.
The Miami Dolphins head to Western New York to take on the Buffalo Bills fresh off a 70-point performance last week. Are they really underdogs in this one?
Related: NFL Week 4 lines
On the other side of the ledger, the Broncos gave up those 70 points to Miami. They’re now set to visit a Chicago Bears team that’s lost 13 consecutive games. Can Chicago snap this streak at home?
In another edition of this article for the 2023 NFL season, we will focus on the four games (listed below) that offer up NFL picks against the spread worth your bet.
NFL picks against the spread, Week 4 edition
| Game | Time (ET) |
| Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills | 1:00 PM |
| Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears (+3.5) | 1:00 PM |
| Arizona Cardinals (+14.0) at San Francisco 49ers | 4:25 PM |
| New England Patriots (+7.0) at Dallas Cowboys | 4:25 PM |
Miami Dolphins keep good times rolling against Buffalo Bills (NFL picks lock)
Seventy points in an NFL regular season football game. A total of 726 yards of offense. Tua Tagovailoa having more touchdown passes (four) than incomplete passes (three). Rookie running back De’Von Achane going for 203 yards on the ground. Fellow running back Raheem Mostert scoring four touchdowns.
These are the historic numbers Miami put up against the Denver Broncos in Week 3. The team is on an absolute roll. There is no other way to go about it.
Meanwhile, Buffalo has won two consecutive games by a combined margin of 75-13 after a season-opening loss to the New York Jets. It makes sense for the Bills to be home favorites against pretty much any team in the NFL. But did we mention that Miami dropped a 70-burger last week? It’s hard to imagine the team struggling at any point in the near future. Go with the red hot Dolphins and don’t look back.
Related: Are the Miami Dolphins No. 1 in Sportsnaut’s NFL power rankings?
Chicago Bears snap 13-game losing streak
Chicago is a bad football team. It has not won a regular season game since Oct. 24 of last season. Justin Fields had put up less than 30 net passing yards last week against the Kansas City Chiefs before getting a garbage-time touchdown in what ended up being a 41-10 loss.
So, why would we venture to use one of our NFL picks on this disaster class of a team? Did you read our Miami Dolphins blurb above? They scored 70 points against the Denver Broncos. Seventy! Do you really think Sean Payton’s squad is going to be able to rebound from that performance in a week?
On a side note, the Broncos have lost nine of their past 10 games on the road dating back to last season. That included giving up 51 in Week 16 against the Los Angeles Rams last season and 70 this past week to Miami.
Arizona Cardinals keep it “close” against San Francisco 49ers
We’re not fans of huge point spreads. Just look at last week as a case study. The 49ers and Chiefs covered double-digit spreads last week, only to see the Dallas Cowboys lose as 11-point favorites against these very same Cardinals in Arizona.
Arizona has played it competitively through three games despite a lack of all-around talent. The team held a lead against the Washington Commanders after three quarters back in Week 1. It then led the New York Giants 20-0 at the half in Week 2 before taking out Dallas this past Sunday. It’s hard to pick this team to lose by two touchdowns given this three-game sample size.
We’re still looking at a potential two-score win for San Francisco at home. Don’t get all crazy with your NFL picks. The 49ers are outscoring their opponents by an average of 16.1 points per game during their 13-game regular season winning streak. Just don’t expect full coverage in this one.
Related: NFL defense rankings heading into Week 4
New England Patriots put up a fight against the Dallas Cowboys
New England held the Miami Dolphins to 24 points back in Week 2. That seems to be a major win given what we’ve seen from Miami’s offense in its two other games (106 points). It then went out there and frustrated the New York Jets in Week 3, yielding just 10 points and 171 total yards of offense to go with a mere 12 first downs.
Even with the game on the road, we’re not exactly fans of teams with this type of defense being a touchdown dog. Dallas’ red-zone struggles last week in a shocking loss to the Arizona Cardinals should also be of concern. Dak Prescott and Co. scored just one touchdown on five trips inside the Cardinals’ 20. Playing the Pats’ defense, that’s a recipe for failure.
Much like with the Cardinals, we’re not picking the road underdog to win outright. But given New England’s track record of close games and the Cowboys’ dumpster fire of a performance last week, seven points seems to be pushing it.
Related: 2023 NFL Playoff and Super Bowl predictions