Our NFL picks against the spread last week left something to be desired. Such as the nature of the beast. The Miami Dolphins put up their worst offensive performance of the season in a 21-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Germany. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys couldn’t get out of their own way late in a terrible defeat at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Moving forward, we now look at Week 10 and what that slate has to offer for NFL picks. The Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) surprisingly find themselves as three-point home underdogs against a struggling 49ers team that’s lost three consecutive. Can Trevor Lawrence and Co. pull off the mini upset?
Speaking of the Cowboys, they are 16-point home favorites over the New York Giants. Do we take the points or not? Meanwhile, the Houston Texans are riding a huge late-game win and a seven-point underdog status into Cincinnati against the Bengals.
In another edition of this article for the 2023 NFL season, we will focus on the four games (listed below) that offer up NFL picks against the spread worth your bet.
NFL picks against the spread, Week 10 edition
| Game | Date, time |
| Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Chicago Bears | Nov. 9, 8:15 PM ET |
| Houston Texans (+7.0) at Cincinnati Bengals | Nov. 12, 1:00 PM ET |
| New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) | Nov. 12, 1:00 PM ET |
| New York Giants (+16.0) at Dallas Cowboys | Nov. 12, 4:25 PM ET |
Carolina Panthers take advantage of turnover-prone Chicago Bears
It’s looking more and more like rookie undrafted free agent Tyson Bagent will get the start for an injured Justin Fields once again Thursday night in Chicago. After a tremendous first career start against the Las Vegas Raiders, Bagent has fallen back to earth the past two games. That span has seen him account for two touchdowns with seven giveaways.
Sure, Bryce Young has his own turnover issues (two pick-sixes last week). But we like him to hold up a bit better than an undrafted free agent from Shepherd.
This really is nothing more than a pick em game with Chicago receiving the points at home. Look for Carolina to get it back on track in what should be an ugly Thursday Night Football game. Thanks, NFL.
Related: Sportsnaut experts provide Week 10 NFL picks
Houston Texans keep it close against Cincinnati Bengals
At 4-4 on the season, Houston is actually just one game behind Cincinnati for the final wild card spot in the AFC Playoffs. It has been an amazing turnaround for first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud leading the charge.
- C.J. Stroud stats (2023): 62% completion, 2,270 total yards, 15 total TD, 1 INT, 102.9 QB rating
In last week’s dramatic late-game win over the Buccaneers, Stroud threw for 470 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s a man on a mission heading into this Week 10 game.
On the other hand, Cincinnati has been darn good. It has won four consecutive games with Joe Burrow (10 TD, 2 INT) returning to pre-injury form.
We’re not going to pick the Texans to win outright. Rather, the expectation is that they’ll keep this close. Outside of Stroud, Houston’s defense has continued to do work under Ryans. It is yielding less than 20 points per game and has given up just seven passing touchdowns in eight outings this season.
Related: NFL Week 10 power rankings
Minnesota Vikings win fifth consecutive game (NFL picks lock)
We’re not necessarily huge fans of the Saints heading into Minnesota for Week 10. Despite a 5-4 record on the season, the team has played pedestrian football throughout. That includes narrow victories over the Tennessee Titans (3-5), Carolina Panthers (1-7) and Chicago Bears (2-7). New Orleans has also lost to the Green Bay Packers (3-5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5).
Set to take on a red-hot Vikings team that’s riding the wave of Joshua Dobbs’ debut performance last week, look for Minnesota to come out on top and win a fifth consecutive game. That’s especially true if the Vikes’ defense (nine takeaways during four-game streak) can continue to ball hawk on this side of the ball.
New York Giants show fight against Dallas Cowboys
First off, the Giants are a hot mess right now. The two-win team will likely trot out veteran Matt Barkley to start at quarterback mere days after signing him to the practice squad. Daniel Jones (ACL) is out for the season. Tyrod Taylor (ribs) is currently on injured reserve. Meanwhile, New York’s seven losses have come by an average of 18 points per game.
So, why would we expect this team to cover after a 40-0 home loss to these very same Cowboys back in Week 1? It’s two-fold. It’s always a good rule of thumb to avoid the points in a game with such a large spread. Secondly, we’re talking about a rivalry matchup with Brian Daboll’s squad playing for some sense of pride.
Prior to last week’s blowout loss to the Raiders, each of New York’s previous three games were decided by one score. That included a 14-9 loss to the Buffalo Bills back in Week 6. It won’t necessarily be close. But giving16 points is absurd for an NFL game.
