NBA fans should allow the regular-season to play out significantly before immediately proclaiming someone in the running to win a certain individual award.
Nonetheless, below is a prediction on each winner based on the full body of work in an 82-game schedule.
Presuming no major injuries arise from the favored candidates, below are my picks for the NBA awards this season. Those include regular-season MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Most Improved Player and Coach of the Year.
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NBA MVP
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic
Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo may receive more open looks with Damian Lillard, but he will also share the offensive workload. Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid can thrive with or without James Harden, but his status uncertainty will surely hurt his play in some fashion. Yet, Jokic will win his third regular-season MVP award in four years for much more important reasons.
Scary to think, but Jokic could actually perform even better than his past two MVP campaigns. The Nuggets have a fully healthy Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. to relieve some pressure off of Jokic. As shown during his first NBA title run, Jokic has become unstoppable with his superb passing, post-up work and step-back jumpers.
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NBA Rookie of the Year
San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama
The race will stay close between Wembanyama and Portland Trail Blazers point guard Scott Henderson. Though the Spurs aren’t expected to make the playoffs with their young roster, Wembanyama’s skillset has already proven great so far.
He has point-guard skills in a big-man’s body. What he lacks in size and strength, Wembanyama makes up for defensively with his length and timing. And though he has become a hyped rookie, Wembanyama has done most of his talking with stoic personality, strong fundamentals and team-oriented approach.
NBA Defensive Player of the Year
Boston Celtics guard Jrue Holiday
Don’t be surprised if Holiday and Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo remain neck-to-neck in defensive effectiveness throughout this season. Holiday has become the NBA’s best perimeter defender, a valuable need that can at least slow down and tire out the league’s best wing scorers. Adebayo can defend at all five positions, a valuable need in a game that requires versatility. My edge will go to Holiday, however, partly because he can master his job description under better circumstances.
Holiday can mostly focus on defense with the Celtics since they have a high-octane offense that features Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis. Adebayo will have the pressure to thrive on both sides of the floor considering the Heat’s depleted roster. Holiday can afford to take risks because of the Celtics’ depth. Adebayo can’t as much. Nonetheless, Holiday will be well-deserving of this award after cementing himself as one of the league’s best defenders for quite some time.
NBA Sixth Man of the Year
New York Knicks guard Immanuel Quickley
Don’t be surprised that the Knicks agree to an extension with Quickley before the 2023-24 season starts. Don’t be surprised if Quickly then rewards the Knicks with building off his already stellar play.
The third-year guard has already emerged as the Knicks’ third-best player behind Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle. But Quickley will add on to his body-of-work. He will remain one of the league’s best perimeter defenders. He will show growth as a 3-point shooter. And he will stay consistent with his production without fretting about his role.
NBA Most Improved Player
Los Angeles Lakers guard Austin Reaves
He will not mirror the role player that suddenly becomes complacent after landing his first handsome contract. He will mirror the promising young player that experiences dramatic growth following his first stint with Team USA.
Reaves has already become a Lakers’ fan favorite for his hustle, defense and perfect fit alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Reaves will show he is more than just a role player on a high-profile team, though. Reaves will continue thriving as a defender, shooter and playmaker. Reaves will assume a bigger scoring role to relieve some pressure off of James in his 21st NBA season. And Reaves will absorb physicality much better after international prospects in the FIBA World Cup tried to test him.
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NBA Coach of the Year
Oklahoma City Thunder coach Mark Daigneault
Finally, Daigneault will be rewarded for his patience during a rebuild. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will become an MVP candidate. Chet Holmgren will dominate his “rookie” season after missing his first year with injuries. And though it might be premature to anoint the Thunder as an NBA title contender, they could become a dangerous playoff team.
Daigneault will deserve credit for some of that success. He has resonated with the team’s young roster because of his youth, amenable personality and collaborative style. He knows his Xs and Os well, too.
Mark Medina is an NBA Insider at Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and Threads.