With MLB’s Opening Day upon us and an exciting 2025 season ahead filled with compelling storylines, a grim reality looms over baseball. Commissioner Rob Manfred and league owners are expected to lock out players after the 2026 season.
The current collective bargaining agreement, ratified in March 2022, expires on Dec. 1, 2026.
MLB owners last locked out players in December 2021, a standoff that lasted three months. Despite extending late into spring, baseball still managed to complete a full 162-game schedule.
The most contentious issue is whether billionaire owners will push for a salary cap — historically a non-starter for the MLB Players Association. If both sides dig in on this point, the lockout could stretch well into the regular season.
With this potential crisis on the horizon, a top MLB insider is issuing a dire warning about the severity of the situation.
MLB insider: ‘We’re not going to see baseball’ if owners push for salary cap
In an interview with the “Foul Territory” baseball podcast, ESPN’s Jeff Passan put it bluntly: “We’re not going to see baseball” if owners demand a salary cap.
“It’s going to be a real window, I think, into Major League Baseball and into its owners and into the league’s priorities and visions for the future, just how hard they lean into the idea that a salary cap is a must-have this time around,” Passan said. “If they do, that means that they are prepared to shut down the sport. Look, unless something miraculous happens, MLB is going to lock out the players in early December of 2026.”
Passan added: “This has a chance to be a lot darker and a lot worse than four years ago when we saw this same thing happening barreling toward Opening Day, and wondering, ‘Are we going to have baseball?'”
If MLB leans into pushing for a salary cap, you can expect them to lock out the players in December of 2026, says @JeffPassan.
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) March 25, 2025
"Is it worth it to take a great era of MLB, that we are in the midst of right now, and absolutely torpedo it in pursuit of financial gains?" pic.twitter.com/ciivgZlor8
The MLB insider noted that baseball is in a strong position right now — the league addressed one of its biggest concerns with game length by implementing the pitch clock. The automated ball-strike challenge will likely come into play next season following a successful trial in spring training. And Shohei Ohtani has become the face of the sport globally.
Passan questioned if it’s worth derailing the sport and alienating fans when MLB appears to be thriving.
“You have all these good things going for you, is it worth it? That’s the question that they need to ask themselves and that’s the question fans need to ask as well. Is it worth it to take a great era of Major League Baseball, that we are in the midst of right now, and absolutely torpedo it in pursuit of financial gains? There is sanity to be found in negotiation, in a non-capped system. I’m just curious if Major League Baseball owners are going to agree with that sentiment,” Passan stated.
According to Forbes, the league’s revenues reached a record $12.1 billion in 2024, indicating they’re far from financial distress. Additionally, public perception of billionaires has shifted significantly since the 1994 strike, which many blamed on players. This time, owners would likely face the brunt of backlash if an extended lockout eliminates part of the 2027 season.
