10 fantasy football busts for 2024, top NFL players to avoid in fantasy drafts including Travis Kelce

Picking Justin Herbert among our fantasy football busts for 2024 has a lot to do with his injury. After being diagnosed with a plantar fascia injury, Herbert’s timeline for a return is the Week 1 opener. The problem is returning to the field doesn’t mean he is close to 100 percent. Plantar fascia injuries can take months to fully recover from and while Herbert isn’t Jalen Hurts, he is an above-average athlete for his position who uses that movement to evade sacks and extend plays. Any limitations take away from what he can do on the field. We also have to account for the lost reps in training camp with Ladd McConkey, the Chargers’ new tight ends and the ability to get reps in this new system. With an ADP of 155.4 (18tg among quarterbacks), you’re much better off taking Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence or even Baker Mayfield.

Related: Fantasy Football Sleepers 2024

Most of the people who are optimistic about Deshaun Watson returning to the MVP-caliber form we saw with the Houston Texans are residing in Cleveland. It’s true that Kevin Stefanski is one of the best play-callers in football and the Browns offensive line is a strength. Cleveland also boasts the receiving corps to excel and it will be more dependent on its passing game this year with Nick Chubb returning from multiple ligament tears in his knee. Now’s the point where we highlight the fact that Watson has a worse QB rating since 2022 (81.7) than Carson Wentz (81.8), Jacoby Brissett (92.6) and Gardner Minshew (84.4). He also ranks 33rd among qualified quarterbacks in EPA per Play (-0.041). There’s no reason to draft him, especially when you can get Will Levis, Bo Nix, Bryce Young or Justin Fields later in your fantasy football draft.

Related: NFL power rankings 2024

There is less of an argument for Alvin Kamara to finish among the fantasy football busts this season in PPR scoring. After all, he finished last season with 75 receptions in just 13 games. Here’s where our problem is. Kamara will be running behind the worst offensive line in the NFL this season, meaning there’s a strong chance he averages under 4.0 yards per carry for the second consecutive year. It’s also clear that Kendre Miller could be more involved this season and the Saints coaching staff will give goal-line touches to Jamaal Williams and Taysom Hil. So, Kamara’s fantasy value is dependent on Derek Carr overwhelming him with targets. Carr’s tendency gives some credibility to that, but Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak should help expand this passing attack. Instead of taking Kamara with a top-40 pick, target Aaron Jones 20 picks later or snag someone like Zamir White, Jaylen Warren or James Conner multiple rounds later. Thank Kamara for his great years and look elsewhere.

Related: Want more NFL coverage, analysis? Check out Sportsnaut.com

How lucky do you feel? That’s what fantasy managers must ask themselves before drafting De’Von Achane. We certainly see the appeal in a running back who averaged 7.8 yards per carry last season, leading all NFL players with 100-plus carries. The problem is trying to guess when the explosion comes. Achane only had five games last season with double-digit carries and one of those was followed by a four-week absence. He’s also a part of an offense with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and must share carries with Raheem Mostert and standout rookie Jaylen Wright. Achane isn’t anything close to a workhorse, he’s tin a true timeshare. That’s not what you want from the running back with an ADP of 34.8, with plenty of managers taking him ahead of Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones and Kenneth Walker III.

Related: NFL defense rankings 2024

Jonathon Brooks does make it among the players to avoid in fantasy football this season. However, we’d buy all the stock we can in him in dynasty leagues. The problems for 2024 are pretty simple. Brooks’ ACL tear last season at Texas keeps him out of Carolina Panthers training camp and the recovery will potentially sideline him for most of September. When he is finally cleared, he’ll have to earn his reps and the coaching staff will gradually ease him into a bigger workload over another month-plus of action. As for those betting on him being a league-winner in December for the fantasy football playoffs, keep in mind that Carolina has one of the worst defenses in football. That means the Panthers offense will be trailing early and often, with targets going to Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen, Ja’Tavion Sanders and Xavier Legette. Just don’t pass on Brooks in 2025.

Related: Top 100 NFL players 2024

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf hasn’t scored double-digit touchdowns since 2021 and he last eclipsed 1,200 receiving yards in 2020. So immediately, you’re not exactly getting outstanding bang for your buck with his current ADP (38.2, 16th among wide receivers). Now, let’s add on the fact that receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba will take on a much larger role this season and Tyler Lockett is a strong bet for another 90-plus targets. So, you can have Metcalf sharing targets with three players or grab the likes of Zay Flowers (64.6 ADP), Cooper Kupp (50.9 ADP) or Tee Higgins (74.3 ADP) much later and probably get a lot more value.

Related: Worst NFL offensive lines right now

George Pickens is fine for what he is, a solid receiver capable of eclipsing 1,100 receiving yards but also causing some frustration for fantasy managers with inconsistency. In 2023, Pickens had five 100-yard games and nine contests under 50 receiving yards with 1 total during that nine-game stretch. Do we really expect that to change when Pickens isn’t an especially perfect fit in Arthur Smith’s offense and Russell Wilson will be his quarterback for multiple games? No. Besides, you can inexplicably get Amari Cooper or Chris Godwin a round later. We even like Diontae Johnson 103.3 ADP) more.

Related: NFL awards predictions 2024

Malik Nabers can be a superstar in the NFL, we’re just not confident it will happen right now. Daniel Jones is not an accurate quarterback and his decision-making leaves plenty to be desired. The New York Giants have also put themselves in a situation where Nabers is the only player opponents really need to account for defensively. Being the focal point of a defense’s attention when you have a below-average quarterback with limited physical tools isn’t the combo we’re looking for. Instead, we’d rather bet on Tee Higgins (74.3 ADP), Calvin Ridley (75.1 ADP), Chris Godwin (89.7 ADP) or Rashee Rice (100.2 ADP) over Nabers (64.8 ADP). Just make sure you have Nabers in dynasty.

Related: NFL QB rankings 2024

One of our fantasy football busts is tied to another. If the Cleveland Browns had a different quarterback, we’d feel very differently about David Njoku. The stats – 81 receptions, 882 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns – look great. Unfortunately, there’s critical context missing. From Weeks 10 through the Wild Card round, Njoku averaged 6.25 receptions and 74.75 receiving yards per game with 4 touchdowns on 81 targets in 8 games. From Weeks 1-9, he averaged 41.9 receiving yards per game with 54 total targets and 2 touchdowns in six games. We’ll let you guess which side of those splits Deshaun Watson started.

Related: Highest-paid NFL players 2024

The Kansas City Chiefs have entered territory where they can essentially treat the regular season like the San Antonio Spurs did when they were a dynasty. That means scaling back Travis Kelce’s workload and if there is any injury, being extremely cautious with him. Adding tight ends Irv Smith Jr. and Jared Wiley along with receivers Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy is just as much about lightening Kelce’s workload as it is diversifying the Chiefs’ passing attack. Kelce is undeniably one of the best NFL tight ends ever, but using a top-25 pick on him is foolish when the 34-year-old tight end easily could have fewer receiving yards in 2024 than he did last season (984).

Related: Best NFL players ever