BALTIMORE – Something is unfolding in the American League East this year that has never occurred before.
While there have been some tremendous down-to-the-wire races in the division over the years, this one is unique. Not necessarily for its drama – not quite yet anyway – but for its participants.
Unless there is an historic collapse, the AL East crown – and almost certainly the No. 1 playoff seed in the American League – will go to either the Baltimore Orioles or the Tampa Bay Rays. They begin a four-game series at Camden Yards on Thursday, the last regular season battle between the two in 2023.
The Orioles (91-54) are up 6-3 in the season series and hold a two-game lead in the East standings over Tampa Bay (90-57).
Since the “Devil” Rays entered the majors in 1998, the Rays and Orioles have never finished 1-2, in either order, in the big-money, big-spotlight AL Beast. It’s almost certain to happen that way in 2023.
“Wouldn’t that make it kind of an underdog story for us to be 1 and 2 for the first time?” Orioles outfielder Austin Hays said. “I’m not saying there’s an underdog between us, but us being the smaller market teams, finishing at the top, that’s like its own little underdog story in itself.”
Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays ushering in news AL East era
In the Rays’ previous 25 seasons, they have won the division four times and finished second in three others. They’re headed toward their fifth consecutive playoff appearance. Since 1998, the Orioles have captured the division title once and placed second twice but haven’t made the playoffs since 2016.
The two organizations, however, have never been in the postseason at the same time. But they have been awful together on many occasions. Combined, the two clubs have finished last in the East 18 times and placed 4th/5th in the same season nine times.
But this isn’t the AL East of old, where the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees rule and everyone else takes a number. Those two behemoths are battling for the basement in 2023. Meanwhile, the Orioles and Rays payrolls combined (approximately $150 million) is less than the Red Sox ($181 million) and much less than the Yankees ($279 million), according to Spotrac.com.
“It’s definitely a big series against a really good team and it’s just cool to see some of these smaller market teams produce like we have,” Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle said. “I think it’s gonna be a lot of fun and everybody should be excited for it.”
The Orioles already have sold out Friday’s game, which includes a tribute to former All Star Adam Jones, who will officially “retire” as an Oriole. And the team is expecting large crowds on both Saturday and Sunday as well.
“I imagine our fans are gonna fill this place out and I imagine it’s going to be a tough environment for the Rays to have to come into and play in,” Hays said. “I love that we have the home-field advantage for this series.”
Play vs. rest debate
Also at stake will be the AL’s No. 1 seed in the playoffs, which comes with a bye during the first round of the postseason. There’s been debate as to whether the bye helps or hurts teams that are accustomed to playing every day, but the Orioles and Rays seem to be on the same side of that argument.
“Everybody in this clubhouse is dead set on winning the division,” Rays starter Zach Eflin told the Tampa Bay Times earlier this week. “We don’t have anything on our minds of what we want to do other than just win the division. That’s exactly where our heads are.”
Baltimore Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said given that his Orioles relievers have been asked to eat a lot of innings and his rotation consists of several starters who haven’t pitched so deep into a pro season, his team would love a brief rest at the end of this grueling year.
“I think giving pitchers days off, that’s extremely important, especially where we are with our pitching staff and the usage of our bullpen and those type of things,” Hyde said. “That (bye) would be really, really helpful.”
The winner of the East also should be guaranteed homefield advantage throughout the American League Championship Series. The Rays (50-25) and the Orioles (44-27) have the two best home records in the league, so the winner of the division receives a distinct boost to their World Series hopes as well.
After a hot start in Tampa Bay, a cool down
For much of the first half, the Rays looked like they would cruise to the division title. Coming off a season in which they won 86 games and made the playoffs, the Rays started 2023 by winning their first 13 games and 29 of 36. They ended June with a 57-29 record – a .671 winning percentage – and led the Orioles by 6 ½ games entering July.
The Rays, however, stumbled that month, going 8-16, and falling out of first place for good on July 22. The Orioles jumped over them that day and have remained atop the division since.
And now that six-month marathon could be determined this week – or perhaps be extended until the end of the month.
“Obviously, it’s a huge series no matter what, no matter which way you look at it, the top two teams in the East,” Tampa second baseman Brandon Lowe told the Tampa Bay Times. “It has huge, potential playoff implications.”
The Baltimore Orioles have the advantage, both in the standings and circumstantially. They likely have lost All Star closer Félix Bautista for the year with an elbow injury, but they have been primarily healthy this season. And top lefty starter John Means is now back from 2022 elbow surgery.
Meanwhile, the Rays have dealt with serious injuries throughout 2023, including losing ace Shane McClanahan to August elbow surgery. Additionally, the team’s WAR leader, shortstop Wander Franco, is on indefinite administrative leave while being investigated for alleged inappropriate relationships with minors.
Regardless, after being out of the postseason picture for seven years and surviving some miserable seasons in between, the Orioles aren’t taking this upcoming series for granted.
“We’ve obviously come a long way to playing these types of games in mid-September, against a team that’s a really, really good club,” Hyde said. “I want our guys to enjoy it, honestly.”
Dan Connolly is an MLB Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.