The 2023 NFL preseason is over and while exhibition games don’t dictate what’s going to happen during the regular season, preseason action helps give us better ideas of what could happen this fall.
Most NFL teams gave their starters plenty of run during the preseason, allowing us to evaluate quarterbacks, rookies, talent in the trenches and preview how new coaches influence their teams. Of course, the 2023 NFL preseason is also an opportunity to follow some of the biggest storylines around the league that will either have an influence on the regular season or have future implications beyond this year.
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Let’s dive into our 10 biggest takeaways from the 2023 NFL preseason.
New York Jets have big problems on offensive line
The New York Jets offensive line is set for Week 1 with Mekhi Becton at right tackle and Duane Brown at right tackle. It’s nice to have an established group, but the 2023 NFL preseason also provided us with plenty of reason to worry about this unit. The Jets’ offensive line ranked 20th in PFF’s pass blocking this preseason, with offensive tackle proving to be a major issue.
We also can’t ignore the criticisms from within the organization. Robert Saleh publicly called out Becton multiple times this summer and Aaron Rodgers was critical of the offensive line, too. There are also the alarmingly low expectations the Jets’ organization has for Becton. If you’re wondering why all of this matters, Aaron Rodgers ranked 24th in quarterback rating (62.6) when pressured last season with a 4-4 TD-INT ratio. If the Jets can’t keep pressure off Rodgers, he’ll look more like a 38-year-old quarterback than a four-time MVP.
NFL running backs must accept harsh reality
Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott and Josh Jacobs all took slightly different paths this summer but experienced similar results. NFL teams simply no longer value running backs like they used to and given we’re in the third year of a 10-year CBA, even an unlimited number of conference calls and group chats won’t change the reality of the situation.
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Elliott (2,200 career touches) and Dalvin Cook (4.1 true yards per carry in 2022, 37th in NFL) were cut because they’re no longer effective workhorse running backs and that’s not worth more than $6 million to teams. As for Taylor, his talent is worthy of a contract extension but no NFL team in this era was ever going to commit to a multi-year deal worth $14-plus million per season to a running back who was plagued by injuries in 2022 and has already handled 1,851 touches between college and the NFL. Taylor’s timing was terrible and he’ll be lucky if he’s traded, but there isn’t anyone out there willing to pay him what he wants.
As for Jacobs and Barkley, neither came out as a huge winner this summer. Barkley settled for a slightly altered franchise tag that requires everything to go right for him to earn $12 million. Meanwhile, Jacobs missed out on training camp and all he got out of it was $2 million. It’s time for running backs to accept the new reality through 2023. If they are great, an NFL team will roster them for five or six years. After that, it’s one-year deals.
Trey Lance must be a cautionary tale for NFL teams
Trey Lance played eight total games for the San Francisco 49ers, the fewest nu a top=five pick for their original team since 1967. The stat only partially captures what went wrong in the Bay Area for Lance and his experience with the 49ers should be a lesson for everyone.
Kyle Shanahan drafted Lance, at the cost of three first-round picks, because he believed Lance could become his version of Josh Allen. The first problem with that is Allen is an exceptional outlier, a one-of-one with a long history of attempts before him and after that have been unsuccessful. Second, Lance never had a chance to develop like Allen because Allen attempted over 780 passes in his first two seasons whereas Lance had 102 pass attempts. If you’re not going to give the quarterback the reps he needs to develop, he’s never going to become the player you want him to be.
Pittsburgh Steelers struck gold with Nick Herbig
Pro Football Focus highlighted Nick Herbig as one of the hidden gems of the 2023 NFL Draft. Even after earning first-team All-Big Ten hours at Wisconsin, a program with an impressive history of draft pass rushers, Herbig fell to the 132nd overall pick. The Pittsburgh Steelers are thankful for his draft-day slide.
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Herbig was electric in the 2023 NFL preseason. He recorded 3.5 sacks in limited reps, pairing it with an elite 30 percent pass-rush win rate, six pressures and a 92.5 PFF grade. Herbig wasn’t just one of the best Steelers’ players in the preseason, he was one of the best pass rushers overall. It’s a testament to the depth of the Steelers’ defensive front that Herbig will be a rotational player behind T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Markus Golden. Count on Pittsburgh having one of the NFL’s best pass rushes in 2023.
Bryce Young is in an unfavorable situation with the Carolina Panthers
When the Carolina Panthers traded up for Bryce Young, the move received considerable praise. While trading up came at a heavy cost, Carolina had the infrastructure to make it work. Plus, the Panthers’ coaching staff was perfect for Young and the offensive line in the second half of the 2022 season really inspired confidence.
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During the 2023 NFL preseason, per PFF, the Panthers allowed 35 pressures (sixth-most in NFL), 22 hurries (10th-most) and six sacks. Young was often running for his life in the pocket and that’s especially problematic because he doesn’t have the athleticism to get away from NFL defenders and still make plays. Making this situation even more concerning is the fact that none of Carolina’s receivers have proven they can even be a No. 2 option, let alone a go-to target.
Green Bay Packers made the right call with Jordan Love
The numbers Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love posted in the 2023 NFL preseason were certainly impressive. He also made some highlight throws, evaded pressure in ways reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers and he showed outstanding chemistry with Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Luke Musgrave. Yet, that’s not what stood out most this summer.
- Jordan Love preseason stats: 3-0 TD-INT, 193 pass yards, 63.6% completion rate
Love is remarkably comfortable in this offense. While that might not seem like a surprise based on how many years he’s had to learn Matt LaFleur’s system, it’s significant. In his first year as a starting quarterback, Love is consistently making the right decisions with the football and seems to be reading the defense like a veteran. There will be growing pains along the way, but it legitimately looks like the Packers might have another franchise quarterback.
Washington Commanders are underrated
So much of the public attention surrounding the Washington Commanders still centers on Daniel Snyder selling the team and excitement for the new ownership group. While a new era for football in Washington is enough reason for optimism, the Commanders could be a good football team sooner than expected.
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Washington boasts one of the best defensive lines in the NFL and its depth up front means it will consistently generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks and create penetration in the backfield. However, the Commanders’ secondary might also be even better than anticipated, culminating in a top-10 defense.
Offensively, Sam Howell truly doesn’t need to do a lot. The Commanders’ receiving corps of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown is one of the best in the NFC. Antonio Gibson is a fantastic receiving back and Brian Robinson Jr. is productive enough as a runner. Eric Bieniemy has all the pieces he needs to coordinate a league-average offense and Howell could make it above-average. Washington won’t win the NFC East, but it could challenge for a Wild Card spot.
Bijan Robinson is going to run away with Rookie of the Year
Looking at the field for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, it feels like there won’t even be a race in 2023. Young, as previously mentioned, is in a bad situation that likely won’t translate to immediate success. If the Colts trade Taylor, Anthony Richardson doesn’t have the running game he needs and he’s still an extremely inexperienced quarterback. C.J. Stroud doesn’t have the pass-catchers to make things interesting and Jahmyr Gibbs is sharing touches with David Montgomery.
Meanwhile, beat writers in Atlanta are already calling Bijan Robinson one of the best NFL players they’ve watched this summer. The Atlanta Falcons offense is perfect for him and he’s going to be a workhorse this year. Bet on Robinson while the OROY odds are still reasonable.
Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins are Super Bowl contenders
Heading into the 2023 NFL preseason, we were skeptical of the Dallas Cowboys as a Super Bowl contender. While they have an elite defense, an MVP-caliber quarterback and outstanding weapons, head coach Mike McCarthy’s words spoke volumes. When he talked about changing the offense, going away from high-scoring games to a more run-heavy approach, it sparked concern in an era when throwing the football is a more effective way to win games.
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Yet, Dallas never re-signed Ezekiel Elliott or brought in a ‘thunder’ to serve as a complement to Tony Pollard. The Cowboys’ actions don’t suggest McCarthy’s play-calling is going to drag this offense backward a decade. Instead, this should be a balanced offense with Dak Prescott protecting the football better. When you combine that with a defense that can generate defensive stops and create takeaways, you’ve got a Super Bowl threat.
It’s a similar formula for the Miami Dolphins. Once Jalen Ramsey returns, Miami can have a top-five defense. We already saw last year that a healthy Tua Tagovailoa can execute everything Mike McDaniel asks for him in an offense with two of the best wide receivers in the NFL. No one should be surprised if either team goes on a deep playoff run this winter.
Defenses will dominate out of the gate
NFL front offices have seen this coming for years and it became even more apparent early in the 2022 NFL season. Defenses, especially in the trenches, have an early advantage over opposing offenses and especially compared to offensive linemen.
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Defensive linemen are already more athletic, flexible and powerful than a majority of NFL offensive linemen. This gives them a distinct advantage in one-on-one matchups. In addition, more bulked-up athletes switching from offense to defense at the high school and college levels means NFL teams are far deeper on the defensive line than at offensive tackle or guard.
It also takes time for an offensive line to develop chemistry, learn how to work alongside one another and stay well-positioned for the quarterback. Speaking of the quarterback, many starters will still be working on their timing within the offense and building a rapport with wide receivers in September.
We’re not suggesting there won’t be some fireworks and high-scoring games to open the season. Instead, the 2023 NFL preseason just reaffirmed that defenses will have the early edge when Week 1 begins and it should last for a few weeks.
