Vincent Frank
Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills are set to visit Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday afternoon in a matchup between two teams who entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations. It’s the best game on the NFL Week 12 schedule.
Things have changed a tad since the middle of September when the season got going. Philadelphia boasts the best record in the NFL at 9-1 following last week’s win over the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of February’s Super Bowl. Hurts is legitimately right up there as one of the top NFL MVP candidates.
In Upstate New York, Buffalo has struggled to a 6-5 start to the season. It led to the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey follwing a brutal loss to the Denver Broncos on national television back in Week 10. One of the main culprits as it relates to Dorsey’s firing was Allen and his proneness for turnovers.
It would have been unfathomable to say this with a straight face two years ago. Allen was coming off a 2020 campaign in which he finished as the runner-up for the MVP award. He was in the midst of what would end up being his best season.
When Week 12 rolled around in 2021, Hurts career starts after replacing Carson Wentz in Philadelphia as a rookie the year prior. His Eagles would go on to lose that Week 12 outing against the New York Giants, 13-7, with Hurts tossing three interceptions. This dropped Philly to a mere 5-7 on the season.
Fast forward two years, and the trajectories of these two quarterbacks have changed a great deal. While Hurts and his Eagles head into Sunday’s game as the class of the NFL, Allen’s Bills are currently out of playoff positioning in the AFC.
The pressure is squarely on Allen to lead his Bills into a hostile Philadelphia environment and come away with a win. From a micro perspective, it’s fair to wonder whether Hurts has taken over for Allen as one of the faces of the NFL.
Related: Week 12 NFL quarterback rankings
Josh Allen vs Jalen Hurts: It’s in the numbers
It’s not fair to either quarterback to include a small sample size when determining whether Hurts has in fact taken over Allen’s spot as one of the faces of the NFL. A good starting off point would be Week 13 of the 2021 season.
It gives us roughly two full calendar years to provide an objective and stat-driven comparison between the two signal callers.
| Player | Starts | Record | Comp% | Passing yards | Rushing yards | Total TD | Turnovers | QB rating |
| Jalen Hurts | 28 | 26-2 | 67.3 | 8,907 | 1,194 | 64 | 22 | 99.0 |
| Josh Allen | 33 | 23-10 | 64.1 | 8,494 | 1,403 | 85 | 40 | 93.6 |
In some ways, the numbers are similar. But there are a few glaring differences. The crowd that pushes back against QB wins might want to sit this one out. Hurts has won 26 of his past 28 regular-season starts. In games that he’s missed during that very same span, the Eagles are 0-4. You can’t simply call this a coincidence.
Secondly, Allen has been a turnover waiting to happen during his past 33 regular-season starts. He’s averaging 1.2 turnovers per outing during this span. Hurts stands at 0.79 per outing. That’s a difference of roughly 8.5 turnovers per season.
The advanced stats tell us an even bigger story. Hurts is averging 7.9 yards per attempts compared to 7.2 for Allen. Buffalo’s quarterback boasts a 2.9 interception percentage compared to 1.8 for Hurts.
It’s not simply about Allen throwing the ball more and being asked to do a whole lot in Buffalo’s offense. When these percentages are factored in, pretty much every relevant quarterback statistic favors Hurts over his counterpart.
The market dynamics between Allen and Hurts
The NFL is not necessarily reliant on markets when it comes to star power. That it to say, it can market those who play in smaller regions. Aaron Rodgers during his time with the Green Bay Packers is a prime example of this.
Sure, it’s not as vast as the NBA or MLB. But media markets do play a role. Based on NFL Shop metrics, Jalen Hurts currently has the No. 1-selling jersey in the league. He’s followed by others who exist within the United States’ largest media markets or are seeing other factors involved.
| Rank | Player | City | Media Market |
| 1 | Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia | 4 |
| 2 | Micah Parsons | Dallas/Fort Worth | 5 |
| 3 | Brock Purdy | San Francisco/Bay Area | 6 |
| 4 | Jason Kelce | Philadelphia | 4 |
| 5 | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City | 31 |
| 6 | Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco/Bay Area | 6 |
| 7 | Travis Kelce | Kansas City | 31 |
| 8 | Justin Jefferson | Minneapolis/St. Paul | 15 |
| 9 | Josh Allen | Buffalo | 51 |
| 10 | CeeDee Lamb | Dallas/Fort Worth | 5 |
Buffalo finds itself sandwiched in between Louisville, Kentucky and the Providence area of Rhode Island and Massachusetts.
There are other factors in play here outside of media markets. For example, the Kansas City region comes in at 31. However, the Chiefs find themselves as defending Super Bowl champions. Mahomes is unquestionably the face of the NFL. As for Travis Kelce, you might have heard a thing or two about who he’s dating. That has certainly played a role.
The 49ers are always a brand, and Brock Purdy is a legitimate NFL MVP candidate in his sophomore season. Christian McCaffrey might be the best all-around player in the game today and will get MVP votes himself.
As for Micah Parsons and CeeDee Lamb, there is still something to be said about the brand of America’s Team. Jason Kelce was just named one of People Magazine’s Sexiest Men alive. This is a thing that actually happened.
Marketability. Pop culture. On-field performance. These all play a role in who is perceived to be the face of a specific sports league. However, the fact that Hurts comes in at No. 1 among NFL jersey sales while Allen is lagging at nine can also be attributed to the difference in the Philadelphia and Buffalo media markets.
Related: Josh Allen continues stunning downward spiral in Buffalo Bills gut punch Week 10 loss
Josh Allen is talented and can turn it around
None of this is to say that Allen isn’t among the most-talented quarterbacks in the NFL. He’s put up awe-inspiring performances throughout his career. In fact, Allen has gone from being seen as a project when the Bills selected him No. 7 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft out of Wyoming to a legitimate franchise signal caller. That can’t be lost on this.
After all, Hurts’ college tenure included stops at Alabama and Oklahoma while Allen played at Reedley College in California before transferring to Wyoming. Their paths to the NFL — and to stardom — have been much different.
But as it relates to a brand, we’re talking about today’s iteration of the two quarterbacks. While Allen has seen playoff failure after playoff failure, Hurts is coming off a 2022 campaign in which his Eagles won the NFC Championship before he up a record-setting performance in a narrow loss to Kansas City in the Super Bowl.
At 27, the window has not closed for Allen. It’s still wide open. The time is now for the quarterback to once again prove himself. If he can go into Philadelphia and lead the Bills to a win over the one-loss Eagles, the narrative we covered here could be on the brink of changing.
If not, there has to be further concern about both Allen’s brand and the Bills’ Super Bowl window closing altogether. The same thing can’t be said about Hurts. It’s house money for Philadelphia’s star in Week 12.
No pressure, Mr. Allen.
