Our NFL picks against the spread are back for the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs. There’s four games on the slate this coming weekend with spots in Championship Sunday on the line.
The four-game slate kicks off at 4:30 PM ET Saturday afternoon with the Jacksonville Jaguars visiting the Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City finds itself as 8.5-point favorites. Is this one of the games we’re picking an upset? At the very least, the Jags could very well cover.
Here, we give you our NFL picks against the spread for Wild Card Weekend that are worth your while.
| Game | Time (ET) | TV |
| Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs | 4:30 PM (Saturday) | NBC, Peacock |
| Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) @ Buffalo Bills | 3:00 PM (Sunday) | CBS, Paramount+ |
Related: Sportsnaut’s NFL Playoff power rankings
Jacksonville Jaguars keep it close against Kansas City
Jacksonville is coming off an epic 27-0 comeback win over the Los Angeles Chargers during the wild card round. After throwing four first-half interceptions, Trevor Lawrence stepped up and played his best football in the final two quarters. The Jags outscored Los Angeles 24-3 during that span.
There’s something to be said about momentum in the postseason. Winners of six consecutive games, Jacksonville certainly has that.
Since losing to Kansas City in Arrowhead back on Nov. 13, the Jaguars have been on quite the run. That includes wins over playoff teams such as the Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys and Chargers. They are also 3-1 on the road during this span.
We’re intrigued to see how Kansas City’s young secondary holds up against Lawrence and the Jaguars’ passing game. This unit yielded 4,144 passing yards with 33 touchdowns for a QB rating of 95.3 during the regular season. That could be an issue for the heavily-favored Chiefs.
With all of this said, we’re not going to pick Jacksonville to win outright. There’s a reason why the Chiefs found themselves as the No. 1 seed in the AFC and with a first-round bye. They ranked No. 1 in the league in scoring at 29.1 points per game. Patrick Mahomes is the likely NFL MVP. Just don’t expect a blowout in this one.
Related: Sportsnaut’s NFL Playoff and Super Bowl predictions
Cincinnati Bengals’ run continues
Let’s look at this from a logical perspective for a second. Cincinnati has won eight consecutive games heading into Sunday’s road matchup against Buffalo. That includes four road wins. Quarterback Joe Burrow was better on the road than at home during the regular season, throwing 22 touchdowns against seven interceptions while leading the Bengals to a 6-3 record and an average of 24 points per game.
Dating back to last season, the Burrow-led Bengals are 11-5 away from the friendly confines of Paycor Stadium. That can’t be lost when looking at our NFL picks for the divisional round.
There also has to be some concern in Buffalo about Josh Allen’s turnover-prone ways. He committed three giveaways in an ugly three-point win over third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson and the Miami Dolphins last week. Over the course of his past 11 starts, Allen has turned the ball over 16 times.
As the playoffs progress, these issues are going to be highlighted even more. Taking on a quick-strike Bengals offense that boasts some of the best skill-position talent in football, this will be Buffalo’s undoing.
In the end, Cincinnati comes out on top to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game for a second consecutive season. All the while, Buffalo’s tremendous season comes to a premature end.
For full disclosure, here’s our NFL picks during the past five weeks