NFL insider predicts cost of Justin Herbert contract extension

By Andrew Buller-Russ

·Updated: February 10, 2023

After three seasons of quarterbacking the Los Angeles Chargers, now Justin Herbert is eligible to sign a contract extension for the first time in his NFL career. Yet, it should be noted that Herbert has another year on his current rookie deal, which runs through the end of the 2023-24 season and also includes a fifth-year team option for an additional season, meaning the Chargers could still have up to two more years of control.

Yet, any time an organization gains access to a franchise cornerstone such as Herbert, there is a strong sense of urgency to get a contract agreement done as soon as possible. This not only gives the team more long-term security but also provides the player with more financial security.

In the case of Herbert, who has yet to miss a game in his professional football career, he may not feel as much of a rush to secure a large payday, knowing he can just continue to drive up the price for his services. Yet, if Herbert wants to build the best team possible around him, giving the Chargers a contract figure now could help the organization better plan for the future.

The Athletic’s Daniel Popper recently speculated what a contract extension could look like if Herbert is eager to sign a long-term agreement. Considering other franchise options like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray all signed big extensions after their third season, Herbert could be the next.

But what could Herbert’s contract extension with the Chargers look like? Let’s look at The Athletic’s suggestion, which came from data derived from Over The Cap.

Estimating the cost of Justin Herbert’s contract extension

Two other players who could sign massive extensions with their current team include Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, who was also a first-round pick in 2020, and Lamar Jackson, who’s set for free agency. Chances are, Herbert’s contract will come close to Burrow’s, and Jackson may ultimately opt to go year-to-year instead, maximizing his earning potential.

Right now, it’s Aaron Rodgers at the top of the QB earnings list, raking in $50.2 million annually. But being that Rodgers signed his contract prior to the start of the 2022 season, we’ll likely see his record-setting figure broken this offseason, possibly by Herbert and likely by Burrow.

Another figure to keep in mind is the total amount guaranteed, which Deshaun Watson takes the cake, with a $230 fully-guaranteed contract given to him by the Cleveland Browns.

Popper doesn’t see a scenario where Herbert tops Watson’s contract guarantees, mainly to give the Chargers more future cap flexibility. His projection sees Herbert signing a six-year, $295 million contract, with $135 fully guaranteed.

This would give Herbert an annual average value (AAV) of $49.1 million, just under Rodgers’ earnings. Yet, it’s also important to note that, unlike Rodgers, Herbert has yet to win a Super Bowl or four MVP trophies, as the Green Bay QB has. Still, Herbert’s contract would make him the second-highest-paid QB in the NFL, and the second-highest guaranteed amount, just behind Watson.

Fresh contract or not, Herbert will already be facing plenty of pressure as he heads into his fourth season with the hopes of securing his first career playoff win. The only question now is whether he will do so playing to raise the value of his second contract or simply just to write the next chapter in his career.