The San Francisco 49ers needed Brock Purdy and their offense to step up Sunday against the lowly Arizona Cardinals. Their typically stout defense just did not have it against Arizona, yielding 436 total yards and 22 first downs.
It didn’t matter. San Francisco won going away by the score of 45-29 to clinch the NFC West. Purdy completed 16-of-25 passes for 242 yards and four touchdowns.
Back east in Western New York, Dak Prescott led his Dallas Cowboys into a game against the Buffalo Bills. Dallas joined San Francisco in winning five consecutive heading in. Prescott was a slight favorite over Purdy for the league’s top individual honor.
The results we saw from Dallas did not align with this narrative. Prescott completed 21-of-34 passes for 134 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception. A good chunk of those yards came in garbage time as Dallas fell down 31-3 before a late-game touchdown.
These two star quarterbacks were on the opposite end of the spectrum on Sunday for pretty much the first time since Purdy’s 49ers defeated Dak’s ‘Boys by the score of 42-10 back in Week 5. It also has Purdy as the clear-cut NFL MVP favorite heading into Week 16. Here’s why.
Related: Updated NFL MVP odds
Brock Purdy simply has the best numbers among NFL QBs
We can put Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen and Philadelphia Eagles star Jalen Hurts as other quarterbacks in the NFL MVP conversation. Even if they are a tier below Purdy and Prescott, it would not be fair to exclude them.
When looking at these four signal callers, Purdy’s numbers stand above the rest. In reality, it’s not necessarily that close in a number of categories.
| Player | Comp% | Yards | Total TD | INT | QB rating | QBR | YPA | YPC |
| Brock Purdy | .700 | 3,795 | 31 | 7 | 118.9 | 74.6 | 9.9 | 14.4 |
| Dak Prescott | .688 | 3,639 | 30 | 7 | 105.3 | 74.5 | 7.8 | 11.2 |
| Josh Allen | .663 | 3,541 | 37 | 14 | 93.3 | 70.6 | 7.3 | 10.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | .665 | 3,192 | 31 | 10 | 93.5 | 60.2 | 7.4 | 11.2 |
In addition to leading in seven of the eight categories mentioned above, Purdy’s advanced stats also stand above the rest. He leads NFL quarterbacks in net yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, TD/INT ratio and touchdown percentage.
Some will point to the ridiculous amount of skill-position talent Purdy has on offense in San Francisco and the fact that its “west coast offense” relies a lot on yards after the catch. That’s a false narrative when looking at the numbers and the tape.
Purdy entered Week 15 with 1,812 total air yards while averaging 7.2 air yards per completion. Prescott? He had tallied 2,016 air yards while averaging 6.5 per completion. Allen’s splits stood at 1,805 and 5.7 while Hurts was at 1,805 yards and an average of 6.3 per. By all metrics, Purdy’s stats align with him being the favorite to come away with the NFL MVP.
Related: Ranking Brock Purdy among the NFL’s 32 starting QBs
No, Christian McCaffrey doesn’t change the dynamics
“Dude, I think Christian should be MVP. I really do believe that. I’m the guy who hands him the ball off and then I turn back and watch,” Brock Purdy said of Christian McCaffrey after Sunday’s win.
CMC should certainly be in the MVP conversation. After Sunday’s 187-yard, three-touchdown performance; the NFL’s best running back is on pace for 2,186 total yards and 24 touchdowns. It will go down as one of the best seasons for a running back in modern NFL history.
For some, McCaffrey’s performance cancels out what Purdy has been able to do this season. That’s ridiculous. The quarterback boasts a 115.4 QB rating when targeting McCaffrey. Someone has to get the ball to the back in the passing game. And as noted above, Purdy’s air yards compare very well to other top-end NFL MVP candidates.
As an aside, the last running back to win the MVP was Adrian Peterson back in 2012. Only five running backs have come away with the award over the past quarter-century with the rest going to quarterbacks.
Related: NFL Week 15 offense rankings
Purdy’s head-to-head win over Dak Prescott
In addition to Prescott’s struggles against a good team in the Bills on Sunday, it must be noted that Purdy vastly outplayed him in San Francisco’s 42-10 win over Dallas back in Week 5.
| Player | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | QB rating |
| Brock Purdy | 17 | 24 | 252 | 4 | 0 | 144.4 |
| Dak Prescott | 14 | 24 | 153 | 1 | 3 | 51.6 |
Head-to-head has to matter when it comes to voters. As you can see above, Purdy was in a league of his own compared to Prescott in their Week 5 matchup.
Purdy is also 8-3 against teams who find themselves at .500 or better heading into Week 16. That 11-game sample size has seen him throw 22 touchdowns compared to seven interceptions. Dak’s Cowboys are 3-3 against teams with a similar record. The quarterback has accounted for 13 touchdowns and six interceptions in those games.
Final verdict: Brock Purdy is the NFL MVP
All metrics point to Purdy running away with this award when NFL Honors are held the weekend of the Super Bowl. Of course, it’s really the least of his worries. He wants to be leading the 49ers into the big game in Las Vegas.
But that’s just Purdy. He’s unassuming. He doesn’t seem to care too much about individual honors. It’s all about team success. The same thing can be said for other top-end MVP candidates, too. This isn’t simply limited to Purdy.
What we do know is that Purdy has his 49ers with the best record in the NFL. They are averaging north of 30 points per game, including 34.5 points per game during their current six-game winning streak. San Francisco is defeating its opponents by an average of 19.3 points per game.
Call him a game manager or a product of Kyle Shanahan’s system. That’s fine. It doesn’t change the fact that Purdy will win the NFL MVP once February comes calling.