In less than two seasons as the Denver Broncos’ quarterback, Russell Wilson has gone through whole heck of a lot. He’s seen two different head coaches, as many ownership groups and an on-field product that has lacked competitiveness.
For the future Hall of Fame quarterback, this is foreign soil after his 10-year run with the Seattle Seahawks was defined by roster, coaching and front office stability.
It has led to Denver posting a 6-16 record in Wilson’s 22 starts, including a 2-5 mark heading into Week 8 against the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.
The backdrop here includes Denver potentially selling off assets ahead of next week’s NFL trade deadline as first-year head coach Sean Payton takes on the de facto general manager role in Denver. No one is seemingly safe from Payton’s wrath as he attempts to bring the same culture of excellence he led in New Orleans to the Rocky Mountains.
“Sean Payton may be the head coach, George Paton may be the GM, but the balance of power has shifted in that organization to Sean Payton. He’s got the juice right now. And whether or not you think that’s a good thing, that’s how it is. So understand that, and then you can understand the framework in terms of how Denver’s going to operate at this trade deadline.”
NFL insider Jordan Schultz on the Denver Broncos’ current situation
To be clear. No team is trading for Russell Wilson. He signed a five-year, $242.59 million contract extension with Denver after being acquired from Seattle ahead of the 2022 season. Wilson, 34, has cap hits accounting for $150 million in the next three seasons following the 2023 campaign. He’s not an asset on the NFL trade market.
The question now becomes whether Denver bites the proverbial bullet and ends what seems to be a failed experiment involving Wilson following the 2023 season.
Related: Ranking Russell Wilson among the NFL’s 32 starting QBs
Financially, Denver Broncos have a decision to make
Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated had a really interesting point recently. Wilson’s contract is structured in a way that it wouldn’t make sense for Denver to delay the inevitable if its comes to the conclusion that the quarterback is not a long-term fit.
Releasing Wilson after this season would result in a $107 million dead cap hit. Making that move following the 2024 campaign would lead to an $85 million dead cap hit. We’re talking about a mere $22 million difference in the broader construct of what could be a franchise-crippling contract.
The NFL also has this thing called a post-June 1 cut designation. It enables teams to spread the dead cap hit throughout the remainder of a contract. In Wilson’s case, that would be through the 2028 season. In turn, his dead cap hit for the 2024 campaign if released early next year would be roughly $35.4 million. Making the move following the 2024 season would result in an $18.4 million dead cap hit.
Denver has people within its front office that are much smarter than us Monday morning quarterbacks. We’re sure that they are crunching the numbers regardless of Wilson’s on-field performance.
Related: Russell Wilson and the NFL’s highest-paid quarterbacks
Russell Wilson’s play, Denver Broncos trajectory
Likely set to move to 2-6 following Sunday’s game against a vastly superior Chiefs team, the Broncos are going nowhere fast. Heck, they have not earned a spot in the playoffs since winning the Super Bowl following the 2015 season.
Since then, Denver has posted a combined 46-75 record with six wins or fewer a total of four times. Denver’s new ownership group led by Rob Walton is not going to stand by and watch this on-field product struggle to be relevant on the broader NFL stage. They did not spend a then-record $4.65 billion on the team back in 2022 for the status quo to be the name of the game.
If it means tearing this whole thing down and starting anew, it’s something the powers that be in Denver must seriously consider. Giving Payton the keys to the kingdom ahead of the NFL trade deadline seems to suggest that this is the thinking internally.
Meanwhile, Wilson is entering the back end of his career. After some major struggles last season (16 TD, 11 INT), he’s actually playing some good individual ball in 2023.
- Russell Wilson stats (2023): 66% completion, 1,499 yards, 13 TD, 4 INT
Wilson and the Broncos could very well decide that their paths moving forward do not merge. That the marriage is destined to fail. This scenario could include the joint decision that parting ways following the 2023 season is in their mutual interest.
Is it likely Wilson is playing out his final season with the Broncos? No. But the idea that the two sides will continue in an attempt to make this work under the guise of futility makes no sense. It would be the definition of insanity.