The stage is set for the AFC Championship Game, delivering another iconic matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. It marks the fourth time since January 2021 that we get a Bills vs Chiefs matchup in the playoffs, with the stakes at an all-time high for both teams. As part of our AFC Championship Game preview, here are some stats you need to know that will have a heavy influence on the Bills vs Chiefs matchup.
5.2 – Yards per Carry Allowed by the Kansas City Chiefs in last five games
In their last meeting, Kansas City did an effective job slowing down the Bills’ rushing attack. While Josh Allen and James Cook combined for 3 rushing touchdowns, Allen’s 26-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter was one of the few explosive plays allowed by Kansas City on the ground. However, the recent stretches by both of these units suggest it will be a different story in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday.
- Kansas City Chiefs run defense vs Buffalo Bills (Week 11): 104 rushing yards allowed, 3.4 yads-per-car average
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- Kansas City Chiefs run defense (Weeks 15- Divisional Round): 732 rushing yards allowed (146.4 rushing yards per game), 5.2 yards-per-carry average, 4 rushing touchdowns
The Chiefs’ recent ineffectiveness in stopping the run is especially problematic because of what the Bills’ offense has done lately. In Buffalo’s final six regular-season games, it averaged 153.2 rushing yards per game with 2.3 rushing touchdowns per game and a 5.0 yards-per-carry average. In the NFL Playoffs, per Benjamin Solak, both Denver Broncos (50% rush success rate allowed) and Baltimore Ravens (55.6% rush success rate allowed) had their worst games of the year stopping the run. If the two best run defenses in the NFL had problems, Kansas City could be in trouble.
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81.6 – Patrick Mahomes’ QB rating vs blitz since Week 12
One of the intriguing elements of this Bills vs Chiefs matchup is how much head coach Sean McDermott will use the blitz. In the Divisional Round, the Bills defense blitzed Lamar Jackson on 48.4 percent of his dropbacks (Next Gen Stats), their highest in a game since Week 15 in 2021. That compares to a 19.1% blitz rate in the regular season and a 28.6 percent blitz rate in the last meeting with Patrick Mahomes.
- Patrick Mahomes stats vs blitz since Week 12 (PFF): 81.6 QB rating (25th), 56.3% completion rate (32nd), 6.8 yards per attempt (23rd), 63.2 PFF grade (28th)
There is a danger in McDermott being that aggressive again, however. In that Week 11 contest, Mahomes completed 7-of-10 attempts with 1 touchdown and a 117.5 QB rating when blitzed. He’s proven he can exploit the blitz in the past and he burned the Houston Texans for doing it several times in the Divisional Round. This will be one of the best chess matches in the AFC title game.
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113.6 – Josh Allen’s QB rating from a clean pocket
The Buffalo Bills offensive line has been excellent this season, entering the AFC Championship Game with the fifth-fewest pressures (142) allowed and they ranked fourth in ESPN pass-block win rate (68 percent). It’s why all eyes should be focused on just how effective Kansas City is at getting penetration and forcing Allen into risky throws with pressure.
- Josh Allen stats from clean pocket (PFF): 113.6 QB rating (4th), 8.2 yards per attempt (5th), 22-3 TD-INT ratio (3rd), 93.3 PFF grade
Don’t expect a repeat of the Divisional Round – C.J. Stroud pressured on 53.7% of dropbacks – not against this offensive line. Although, the Chiefs defense did pressure Allen on 42.2 percent of his dropbacks in Week 11.
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122.0 – QB rating allowed by Buffalo Bills CB Rasul Douglas this season
Buffalo Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas played te hero in the Divisional Round, securing the onside kick to send this team to the AFC Championship Game. However, he’s also the cornerback Patrick Mahomes is most likely going to try and exploit on Sunday.
- Rasul Douglas stats: 122.0 QB rating allowed, 72.9% completion rate, 518 receiving yards allowed, 8.8 yards per target allowed, 4 receiving touchdowns allowed
Mahomes went after Douglas 5 times in the last Bills vs Chiefs meeting, completing all 5 passes with a 133.8 QB rating when throwing his way. Douglas was outstanding in last year’s playoffs against the Chiefs – 2 interceptions and 1 pass breakup – but he hasn’t been that guy in 2024. There will be opportunities here for the Chiefs’ receivers.
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2.83 – Yards per Carry by the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense in last two games
Moving Joe Thuney from guard to left tackle improved the Kansas City Chiefs’ pass protection, but it came at a cost. From Weeks 2-16, the Chiefs offense averaged 115.9 rushing yards per game with a 4.1 yards-per-carry average. In the team’s last two games – excluding Week 18 when starters were rested – Kansas City averaged just 2.83 yards per carry and 59.5 rushing yards per game.
- Buffalo Bills run defense (regular season + playoffs): 2,218 rushing yards allowed (116.7 rush ypg, 4.6 yards per carry allowed
With that said, Buffalo’s run defense is not a strength. Baltimore fashed them for 176 yards and a 5.9 yards-per-carry average in the Divisional Round. A week prior, a Denver Broncos offense that ranked 21st in yards per carry averaged 4.6 yards per carry in the Wild Card Round. This matchup could go either way.
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