NFL Week 5 predictions: Projecting every game, including Jets vs Vikings and Cowboys vs Steelers

Both NFC South foes are coming off big wins, with the Atlanta Falcons taking out the New Orleans Saints on a game-winning field goal and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers dismantling the Philadelphia Eagles. Tampa Bay looks like the better team right now, especially with Vita Vea back and Calijah Kancey at least having a chance to return in Week 5. That gives the Buccaneers a potentially significant advantage in the trenches against a banged-up Falcons offensive line. If Atlanta wins this, it will be on the shoulders of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier against one of the NFL’s worst run defenses this season.

Related: See where the Bucs rank in our Sportsnaut offense rankings

The New York Jets defense has really turned things around in the last two games, holding its last two opponents to a 54.9% completion rate and 69.1 QB rating (Pro Football Reference). New York, unlike the Green Bay Packers, also boasts the secondary to actually match up pretty well with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. With that said, the Vikings are the best team in the NFL right now and if this Jets’ offense had that many issues with the Denver Broncos defense, Aaron Rodgers and Co. could be in for a very long Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings defense and Brian Flores.

Related: Find out where the Vikings stand in our Sportsnaut defense ranking

The Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears offenses, especially their run games, have started gaining a little momentum. That leaves this game up to the defenses and that’s where the Chicago Bears have the massive advantage. Chicago’s secondary is well-equipped to put the clamps on a bottom-10 Panthers receiving corps and the Bears defensive line should be able to generate some pressure. With Caleb Williams facing a bottom-3 defense, Chicago has the edge and should win consecutive games.

Related: NFL power rankings

The Baltimore Ravens are coming off one of the most impressive performances by an NFL team this season. On the other side, the Cincinnati Bengals are 1-3 and have allowed 62 points combined to their last two opponents. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should be relatively successful through the air against this Ravens secondary, but running the football won’t be an option against the No. 1 defense in the NFL. Rivalry games can always get tricky, but the Ravens look like the vastly superior football team right now with the arsenal to pick apart Cincinnati’s defense in a big win.

If there is one game to skip in NFL Week 5, it’s this one. The New England Patriots are last in the NFL in total yardage per game (238.8) with the second-worst scoring offense (13 PPG). The Miami Dolphins offense without Tua Tagovailoa is just as bad. Explosive plays, let alone points, will be hard to come by. Ultimately, we give the slight edge to a better defense and a more experienced quarterback but this matchup feels like a coin flip where the outcome doesn’t matter.

Related: Is Tyreek Hill looking for a trade out of Miami?

The Washington Commanders have officially taken the leap. That’s not something we expected coming into the season, in large part due to massive concerns with Washington’s offensive line and defense. In a credit to this organization, the offensive line has exceeded expectations and it’s allowing Jayden Daniels to thrive. With the Cleveland Browns defense taking a significant step back in 2024 and the Browns’ offense in an unwatchable state, the Commanders should be able to coast to their fourth consecutive win and a 4-1 start no one saw coming.

Anthony Richardson (hip pointer) exited Sunday’s game with an injury and the Indianapolis Colts offense looked better without him thanks to Joe Flacco. Now, there is no QB controversy in Indianapolis, but it shows how great this Colts offense can be with Shane Steichen’s play-calling when the quarterback protects the football and completes more than half his passes. For now, Richardson is likely to play in Week 5 and this game hinges on his decision-making. Indianapolis gets the edge because of Jonathan Taylor and a Colts defense on the upswing, but this is the Jacksonville Jaguars’ best chance at a win so far.

Get your popcorn ready. The timing of this matchup is particularly nice for the Houston Texans, who should get Joe Mixon back for Week 5 ahead of a matchup against a Buffalo Bills defense that just allowed over 200 rushing yards. Houston wants to run the football and success will do even more for C.J. Stroud and this passing game. However, we do also expect Josh Allen to rebound after a rough Sunday Night Football performance and while the Stefon Diggs ‘revenge game’ is a very popular narrative, Buffalo will be just as motivated to prove it is better off without him. We’re predicting this is the highest-scoring NFL game in Week 5, with the Texans winning it late in the fourth quarter.

If the Denver Broncos can beat the New York Jets in a game where Bo Nix had just 60 yards on 25 pass attempts, the Las Vegas Raiders are in trouble. Denver’s defense is suffocating opponents this season – allowing just 4.2 yards per play (2nd) with a 28.3% third-down conversion rate (4th) – through four games. With Davante Adams (hamstring) potentially out for this one, Denver should be able to control this one throughout. The Raiders’ lone hope, especially if Maxx Crosby (high-ankle sprain) can’t go, is Antonio Pierce rallying the team as he did last year against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Brock Purdy proved he can play well without Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, but life is just easier when you have two All-Pro offensive weapons on the field along with Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings. Now, coming off a blowout win, San Francisco faces an Arizona Cardinals defense that has allowed the seventh-highest yards per play (5.8) average. Kyle Shanahan is going to cook on Sunday. Whether or not San Francisco wins comes down to if the 49ers defense can turn things around. This unit looked great against the New England Patriots, but that’s a bottom-3 offense with no offensive weapon teams have to fear. Fortunately for San Francisco, Kyler Murray and Co. are a bit up-and-down right now, which could be the difference-maker in this underrated game.

Related: NFL games today, NFL Week 5 schedule

Everything looked bleak for the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field after falling behind the Minnesota Vikings 28-0. Somehow, with Jordan Love playing at 60 percent and underthrowing passes, Green Bay lost 31-29 because of missed field goals. The Packers offense is proving it’s one of the best units in the league and this defense, while prone to giving up the big play, also generates takeaways like no one else. Against a Los Angeles Rams team without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, while also saddled by a bottom-3 defense, the Packers should cruise to a win.

Related: NFL expert picks

The Seattle Seahawks defense under first-year head coach Mike Macdonald is one of the biggest stories in the NFL right now. After fielding one of the worst defenses in 2023, Seattle’s defense is thriving this season. That’s bad news for Daniel Jones, especially since this Seahawks offense should have no trouble exploiting the Giants’ secondary.

The hype for this game has taken a bit of a hit. The Dallas Cowboys will be without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, making a bad defense so much worse. If that’s not bad enough for Dallas, this Cowboys offense has proven it can only move the football when Dak Prescott is connecting with CeeDee Lamb or Jake Ferguson. In short, the Pittsburgh Steelers have every advantage except quarterback play in this one. With that said, Pittsburgh also blew its undefeated season last Sunday against a struggling Indianapolis Colts team. Even with that in mind, the Steelers just look far superior defensively and this feels like a very good matchup for them on Sunday Night Football.

Related: Cowboys may be interested in Davante Adams

On one side of the field, we have a New Orleans Saints team coming off consecutive losses that will likely be without Taysom Hill, Demario Davis, Tyrann Mathieu and Erik McCoy on Monday Night Football. Meanwhile, this Kansas City Chiefs offense no longer has Isiah Pacheco, Marquise Brown nor Rashee Rice (ACL tear). This could’ve been a great game, but injuries decimated both teams. So, we give the edge to the team with the all-time greats at quarterback and head coach.