Chris Phillips
A Week 5 matchup between the Indianapolis Colts vs Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football pits two AFC playoff hopefuls coming off losses against one another. Both teams will also take the field dealing with significant injuries.
Denver lost its young star running back Javonte Williams to an ACL tear, delivering a massive blow to its offense. On the other side, Indianapolis will be without All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard is out with a concussion.
It might not be the only major injury impacting the Colts on Thursday. In Week 4, Jonathan Taylor suffered an ankle injury that required further testing. While it’s only a low ankle sprain, he is questionable to play in Week 5.
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Previewing this Colts vs Broncos game, here are three matchups to watch closely.
Effectiveness of Indianapolis Colts’ rushing attack vs Broncos’ defense
Taylor is arguably the best running back in the NFL, but it’s a question of how effective he will be if he plays. He is a vital piece to the Colts’ offense, but a compromised Taylor might not be as helpful as a healthy Nyheim Hines, Deon Jackson, or Philip Lindsay.
The Colts said they wanted to get Hines more involved in the offense. It’s debatable if they have actually followed through on it. Regardless, this game could be a good opportunity to feature him more. Hines probably can’t carry a full starter’s workload for an entire season, but he could handle it for one game.
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Meanwhile, Jackson has flashed in small doses. So maybe he’s the change of pace back or the “thumper” to Hines. There is also Lindsay who is a former starter and is from Denver. Lindsay might be the best of the group to replicate Taylor’s between-the-tackles run. I’m sure he’ll also be motivated for some revenge against Denver since he used to play for them.
If Taylor doesn’t play, it will take a strong effort from these running backs to replace the production. If Taylor does play, then hopefully he’s healthy enough to carry this offense to a win.
Turnover battle will be crucial
After tying for the NFL lead in turnover differential (+14) last season, Indianapolis is now tied for 30th in turnover differential (-6) entering Week 5. It’s drastic and troublesome considering the defense didn’t suffer any big losses from last year’s squad. However, there are some reasons to help explain it.
One of them is that star linebacker Shaquille Leonard has only played in one game. Subsequently, he was knocked out of that game with a concussion. Last season, Leonard led the NFL with eight forced fumbles.
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He was also responsible for four interceptions and three fumble recoveries. It was largely speculated that without his play the defense would be a lot worse. Possibly this season’s play would be what the defense would have been last season.
Another reason for this drastic change is that the Colts have been playing from behind for almost the entire season. And not just down one score but down multiple scores. This leads teams to play a little bit more conservatively, as they just need the clock to run out.
Opponents aren’t as aggressive with their passing game. They call more running plays or screens. The only turnover the defense can generate on these plays is forcing a fumble. And considering Leonard is the master of punching the ball and isn’t playing you see the results.
Another reason is the average starting position the opponents are getting. Since Matt Ryan and the offense haven’t done a good job of taking care of the football. Opponents are getting to start around the Indy 30-yard-line. With such a short field to defend it makes it even more difficult for the defense to try and get a turnover.
The longer the offense has to go to score the more opportunities the defense has to force a turnover. This week it will be imperative for the Colts to get back on the right track. Denver’s offense is loaded with talent but they have not been clicking. This gives Indy an opportunity to score some points and take advantage of a disjointed offense.
Creative an effective pass rush
This is a matchup between two units that aren’t living up to expectations. After making Russell Wilson one the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL, the NFL star has struggled. Once a poised signal-caller behind the pocket, Wilson now ranks 25th in quarterback rating when pressured (55.9), 21st in completion rate under pressure (44.4%) and he hasn’t thrown a touchdown under duress this season, per Pro Football Focus.
It would seemingly be something the Colts’ defense could exploit, except this is an area where the defense has really come up short, per Pro Football Reference.
- 31 pressures (24th in NFL)
- 14 quarterback hurries (T-14th in NFL)
- 10 quarterback knockdowns (T-23rd in NFL)
The Indy defense will need to be smart when they rush Wilson. While he may have lost a step he can still beat you with his legs. The pass rush will need to work together to close in all around him. If one player gets upfield too quickly it could create an escape lane for Wilson to run through.
Another thing the pass rush will need to do is not give up on trying to sack Wilson. Wilson doesn’t always look to run upfield and pick up positive yards. His go-to move in avoiding the rush is to spin away and roll out, all while keeping his eyes downfield looking for the home run throw. This provides the opportunity for the defense to still get a sack on the play.
