When looking at NFL picks against the spread for Week 8, a few things jump out. There are some abnormally large point spreads in games that should be much closer than Vegas anticipates.
Will the struggling Buffalo Bills dominate the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home on Thursday Night Football? What about the San Francisco 49ers being near touchdown favorites against Cincinnati after losing two consecutive?
In another edition of this article for the 2023 NFL season, we will focus on the four games (listed below) that offer up NFL picks against the spread worth your bet.
NFL picks against the spread, Week 8 edition
| Game | Date, time |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8.5) @ Buffalo Bills | Oct. 26, 8:15 PM ET |
| New England Patriots (+9.5) @ Miami Dolphins | Oct. 29, 1:00 PM ET |
| Cleveland Browns (+3.0) @ Seattle Seahawks | Oct. 29, 4:05 PM ET |
| Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) @ San Francisco 49ers | Oct. 29, 4:25 PM ET |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers keep it close against Buffalo Bills
The Bills just has not been themselves over the past three weeks. They lost to the Jaguars in London back in Week 5 before barely defeating a one-win New York Giants team at home the following week. Then, in Week 7, the Bills laid a stinker against another one-win team in that of the New England Patriots.
It’s all about a lack of consistency from Sean McDermott’s squad. In the three games before that (all wins), Buffalo outscored its opponents by a combined margin of 123-33. It’s just hard to bank on this team as near nine-point favorites Thursday night.
Sure, the Buccaneers are a mediocre 3-3 on the season and coming off consecutive home losses in which they scored 19 combined points. But we like Baker Mayfield and Co. to keep this close and cover what seems to be a hefty point spread.
Related: Sportsnaut’s experts make NFL picks for Week 8
Miami Dolphins can’t pull away against New England Patriots
Speaking of large point spreads, the Fins find themselves as nearly double-digit favorites at home against the aforementioned Patriots. First off, it must be noted that Miami won by just seven points against these very same Patriots on the road back in Week 2. These two teams always play close games.
Despite the Patriots’ 2-5 record on the season, they are coming off an upset win over the aforementioned Bills. They also boast the ninth-best total defense in the NFL at 311 yards per game. Typically, teams with defenses like that find a way to avoid blowouts. While this didn’t happen for New England earlier in the year, Bill Belichick’s squad could be turning things around. We’re not picking the Pats to win. But they should cover here.
Cleveland Browns pull off road upset (NFL picks lock)
Whether it’s Deshaun Watson or P.J. Walker under center for the Browns in Week 8 means very little. Watson has not proven himself to be a starter-caliber quarterback (4 TD, 3 INT) this season. Cleveland’s 4-2 start is about a lot more than that.
Prior to shockingly giving up 38 points in a narrow win over the Indianapolis Colts last week, Cleveland had yielded 77 points in five games. It has held quarterbacks to just six passing touchdowns in as many games and an average of 196 yards per outing.
On the other side sits a Seahawks squad that is coming off an uncomfortable win over the struggling Arizona Cardinals. It was a one-score game until Seattle got a field goal late. Quarterback Geno Smith has struggled to the tune of three touchdowns and four giveaways over the past three games. Look for Myles Garrett to continue dominating, sending the Browns to their fifth win on the season.
Cincinnati Bengals make it a game against San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers are not looking at a three-game losing streak. They are too good for that, as evidenced by Kyle Shanahan’s squad dominating opponents during a five-game winning streak to start the season. However, San Francisco also isn’t in position to continue that domination with stars, left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, sidelined.
The 49ers’ defense has also regressed over the past two games. Last time out, they yielded north of 470 total yards to Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings.
Cincinnati has also turned it around after a 1-3 start, winning its past two games. The Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase connection seems to be finally hitting. It won’t be enough to pull off the road upset. But pick Cincinnati to cover here.