When looking at NFL picks against the spread for Week 5, one must take into account some pretty evenly-matched contests on the docket.
The Houston Texans head to Georgia to take on the Atlanta Falcons as two-point underdogs despite C.J. Stroud’s historic start to the season and a two-game winning streak.
On the other side of the ledger, the New York Jets are set to take on the Denver Broncos in what could very well be a statement game for the road team heading to Colorado due to the drama-filled offseason (more on that below).
In another edition of this article for the 2023 NFL season, we will focus on the four games (listed below) that offer up NFL picks against the spread worth your bet.
NFL picks against the spread, Week 5 edition
| Game | Time (ET) |
| Houston Texans (+2.0) at Atlanta Falcons | 1:00 PM |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals (+3.0) | 4:05 PM |
| New York Jets (+2.0) at Denver Broncos | 4:25 PM |
| Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders (+2.0) | 8:5 PM (Monday Night) |
Houston Texans get third consecutive win (NFL picks lock)
DeMeco Ryans has his young Houston Texans playing dominant football. Houston hasn’t just won two consecutive games, it has beat down multiple AFC teams with playoff aspirations. Over the past two weeks, the Texans have outscored Jacksonville and Pittsburgh by a combined margin of 67-23. This represents the franchise’s best two-game run since all the way back in 2015.
It starts with rookie second-round pick C.J. Stroud who is in the midst of an historic start to the season with 1,212 passing yards to go with six touchdowns against zero interceptions.
However, it’s Houston’s defense which has taken on Ryans’ mentality with three takeaways and over this two-game winning streak that has us leaning in this direction. It is also giving up an average of 11.5 points and 330 yards per game.
On the other hand, Atlanta has struggled during its recent two-game losing streak after opening the season 2-0. Primarily, this is on second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder. He’s accounted for one touchdown and four giveaways while leading the Falcons to a total of 13 games during this two-game span. This is our NFL picks lock for Week 5.
Related: Sportsnaut’s experts make their NFL picks for Week 5
Arizona Cardinals continue Cincinnati Bengals demise
The final score of 35-16 doesn’t really tell us the story of the Cardinals’ loss to a dominant San Francisco 49ers team last week. Jonathan Gannon had his squad within 21-16 heading into the fourth quarter after falling down 21-3 in Santa Clara. The talent gap was too much for Arizona to overcome.
Despite this, there are real indications that Arizona will pull off the home upset of Cincinnati come Sunday. Joshua Dobbs (4 TD, 0 INT) is playing the best ball of his career at quarterback. James Conner (318 rushing yards, 5.1 average) has provided balance on the ground. Meanwhile, rookie wide receiver Michael Wilson is coming off a two-touchdown performance against San Francisco.
On the other side, nothing is working for Cincinnati on offense. Continuing to deal with a calf injury, Joe Burrow has thrown two touchdowns in four starts. The Bengals are coming off a pathetic 27-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans. Tee Higgins is banged up. The offensive line continues to struggle. Having been outscored 51-6 in two road games this season, we’re not expecting things to change on Sunday.
Nathaniel Hackett gets revenge against the Denver Broncos
New Broncos head coach Sean Payton provided bulletin board material for the Jets back in July when he blasted former Denver head coach and current New York offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett.
“One of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL,” Payton said of Hackett’s one season with Russell Wilson in Denver.
About this? The Broncos started the season with an 0-3 record, including yielding 70 points to the Miami Dolphins in an humiliating Week 3 loss. It took the disaster class that is the Chicago Bears (14 consecutive losses) blowing a 28-7 lead last week for the Broncos to get their first win under Payton. Their defense still ranks dead last in the NFL at 37.5 points per game. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 78.1% of their passes with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions against Denver through four games.
On the other side, New York played the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs tough at home in Week 4. It fell by the score of 23-20 with Zach Wilson actually outplaying reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes. The embattled quarterback completed 28-of-39 passes for 245 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Look for the Jets to go to bat for their coach and come away with a win in Denver once Week 5 comes calling.
Las Vegas Raiders snap three-game losing streak
Losers of three consecutive games. Head coach Josh McDaniels on the hot seat. Owner Mark Davis yelling at the team’s fans. Ther recent release of a Pro Bowler due to off-field issues. A high-priced starting quarterback dealing with injury.
Everything is not alright with the downtrodden Las Vegas Raiders. So, why would we pick them to come out on top against Green Bay at home on Monday night? It’s two-fold.
The Packers are coming off an ugly 34-20 home loss to Detroit last week. Their defense ranks 30th in the NFL against the run. Their rushing offense ranks 30th as well. Sure, Vegas is dead last in running the ball. But we’re expecting reigning NFL rushing champion Josh Jacobs to turn it around in this one. If for nothing else than to showcase his talents for other teams heading into the Oct. 31 NFL trade deadline. We also firmly believe that former Packers wide receiver Davante Adams wants to hand it to his old team in this one. Take the home squad and don’t look back.