The road to Super Bowl LVIII begins now with all 32 NFL teams competing for an opportunity to win the Lombardi Trophy. While many teams atop the NFL power rankings are Super Bowl contenders, there are several dark-horse teams in the mix as well.
It should be no surprise that teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles are the favorites among Super Bowl contenders this fall. However, there are breakout teams every year who can go on a deep playoff run and pull off the surprise.
Related: Super Bowl odds
Let’s dive into our five dark-horse Super Bowl contenders for the upcoming 2023 season.
Miami Dolphins
It all comes down to health with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. From Weeks 1-15 last season, the Miami Dolphins starting quarterback posted a stellar 107.8 passer rating with a 24-5 TD-INT ratio and a 64.8 percent completion rate in 12 games. He was in the mix for NL MVP and despite Miami’s defense having its share of issues – 98.2 average QB rating allowed, 24-7 TD-INT line from Weeks 1-15 – the Dolphins were dangerous.
Defensively, this unit should be a lot better in 2023. Vic Fangio is one of the best defensive minds in the NFL and the added depth on the Dolphins’ offensive line paired with the improvements at linebacker bode well for defensive improvement. Once Jalen Ramsey returns, this can be a top-five defense.
That’s why everything rests on Tagovailoa’s shoulders. If he stays healthy and executes within the structure of the offense like he did a year ago, Miami can compete with anyone in the AFC. Plus, in a one-game playoff matchup, the Dolphins’ offensive weapons are the caliber of difference-makers that can exploit a great defensive scheme and win it all.
Cleveland Browns
The stakes couldn’t be higher for the Cleveland Browns in 2022. It’s already become evident that the Deshaun Watson contract is an outlier, no other NFL team is willing to sign a franchise quarterback to a fully-guaranteed contract. So, heading into his second season in the Browns’ offense, the pressure is on Watson, the Browns’ coaching staff and the front office to make it all work.
Related: NFL defense rankings
Naturally, the downside for all of this is Cleveland misses the playoffs and cleans house with the coaching staff. It would also mean the Watson contract was a historic mistake that sets this back years financially. However, the Browns also have a sky-high ceiling.
Offensively, this can be one of the most well-rounded groups in the NFL. Nick Chubb and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL guarantee Cleveland will have a dominant ground game it can use in the red zone, rely on in January, or use to eat up the clock. If Watson can become the player we saw in Houston, the weapons and pass protection are in place for him to thrive.
As for Cleveland’s defense, it’s much better off than it used to be. Za’Darius Smith is the perfect complementary edge rusher to Myles Garrett and the Browns now have impactful players on the interior defensive line. If the secondary steps its game up, the Browns have the firepower to go on a deep playoff run.
Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith was legitimately one of the best NFL quarterbacks in 2022. According to Player Profiler, he posted the third-highest deep ball accuracy rating (6.6), finished 10th in red zone accuracy rating (7.1), sixth in QBR (61.1), third in play-action completion rate (72.5 percent) and fifth in completion rate vs pressure (51.4%). Now, imagine this Seahawks’ offense being even better in 2023.
Rookie wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the perfect slot receiver, providing Seattle with the missing piece this offense has spent years searching for. Opposing defenses already had major issues stopping Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, now both will be taking extra defensive attention with Smith-Njigba making plays underneath. Furthermore, the running back tandem of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet should be extremely productive and we’re expecting growth from second-year tackles Charles Cross and Abahram Lucas.
There’s even optimism defensively. Bobby Wagner will do wonders in the middle, stabilizing a bottom-five run defense a year ago. Seattle also improved its defensive line by adding Dre’Mont Jones and Jarren Reed, two big bodies who were badly needed in the trenches. The group we’re most confident in is the secondary, which could be one of the best units in the NFC. If Seattle even has a top-12 defense, its among the Super Bowl contenders in 2023.
Baltimore Ravens
Let’s keep in mind what the Baltimore Ravens did last year. Led by backup quarterback Tyler Huntley with DeMarcus Robinson as the No. 1 receiver, Baltimore came one play away from upsetting the Bengals in the AFC Wild Card Round. Now, things could be very different.
Related: Richest NFL owners
Getting a healthy version of Lamar Jackson back is one thing on its own. He’s demonstrated throughout his career that he can carry an offense for an entire season, step up in critical moments and produce in unfavorable conditions. Only this time around, he finally has a modern NFL play-caller running the offense and Baltimore finally supported Jackson by overhauling the receiving corps. As a result, Jackson’s top pass-catchers will be Odell Beckham Jr, Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers instead of Robinson.
It gives Baltimore the ingredients for a vastly-improved offense that should be far more explosive through the air and more consistent overall. Combine that with a defense that was top-10 in the second half of the season and it should be clear why the Ravens are one of this year’s dark horse Super Bowl contenders.
Jacksonville Jaguars
We saw two different versions of Trevor Lawrence last season, both in the regular season and the playoffs. Across his first eight games in 2022, the Jacksonville Jaguars starting quarterback completed just 62.45 percent of his passes with a 10-6 TD-INT line, 84.8 quarterback rating and averaged 230 pass ypg.
- Trevor Lawrence stats (Week 9-18): 104.6 QB rating, 69.7% completion rate, 15-2 TD-INT
Compare that to the numbers he delivered in the second half of the regular season. Lawrence played like an MVP candidate, getting the ball out quickly and executing Doug Pederson’s system to perfection. We saw that same version of Lawrence lead the Jaguars to a historic second-half comeback over the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC Wild Card Round, recording his first playoff win.
Offensively, we have no real concerns. Calvin Ridley steps in as the No. 1 receiver, making this passing game more dynamic and it should help Lawrence elevate his game. Meanwhile, running back Tank Bigsby is the perfect complementary runner considering Travis Etienne’s issues in short-yardage situations.
So, the Jaguars becoming Super Bowl contenders in 2023 comes down to the defense. If Travon Walker lives up to his billing as the former No. 1 overall pick, Andre Cisco has a breakout season and Tyson Campbell repeats his excellence, the Jaguars’ defense should be good enough for this team to win a few playoff games.