Several players will get life-changing money this offseason. Franchises will shell out contracts totaling over $1 billion, but there will be some misses. Many former All-Stars are heavily overrated heading into free agency.
Here are the top seven overrated MLB free agents.
Pete Alonso
The slugger is a good player, but will he be worth $200 million over seven years when he’s about to turn 30? That’s the question clubs must ask themselves, including the New York Mets, as they look to construct their roster for 2025. Alonso’s numbers have declined over the last three years. His OPS has dropped from .869 to .788, his strikeouts increased from 128 to 172, and he hit 34 home runs this season compared to 46 last year. He also doesn’t offer much defensively at first base, suggesting a move to full-time designated hitter by the end of his contract. With his numbers already declining, teams could be on the hook for a quickly aging veteran.
Willy Adames
The shortstop seeks a big payday after spending the last four seasons with the Milwaukee Brewers. He hit .251/.331/.462, with 32 home runs, 112 RBI, and 93 runs scored in 2024, a much better performance than 2022 and 2023. However, he has yet to make an All-Star team and has never been considered one of the top shortstops in the league. The Athletic’s Tim Britton projects Adames will get six years, $132 million on the open market.
Related: New Atlanta Braves rumor links team to pursuit of big time power bat in free agency this winter
Gleyber Torres
Gleyber Torres never seemed to live up to the hype after the New York Yankees acquired him from the Chicago Cubs. He slashed only .257/.330/.378, with 15 home runs, 136 strikeouts, and an OPS+ of 101. This marked a decline from his 2023 production of .273/.347/.453, 25 home runs, 98 strikeouts, and 118 OPS+. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden predicts Torres will get four years, $44 million in free agency. At 28 heading into next season, questions remain about his ability to turn his career around.
Alex Bregman
It’s hard to envision Bregman leaving the Houston Astros, but it’s possible as the two-time All-Star hits free agency. Bregman’s OPS and OPS+ have declined the last three seasons, and his walks decreased more than twofold compared to 2023 — from 92 to 44. Bregman will be 31 heading into the 2025 regular season. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden predicts Bregman will receive a seven-year, $185.5 million contract, but teams may hesitate given his declining numbers.
Related: Houston Astros star calls out front office, ownership before critical offseason
Paul Goldschmidt
Teams hoping Paul Goldschmidt will return to his MVP form may be disappointed. His numbers have declined significantly since he was the National League’s best player in 2022. The St. Louis Cardinals have announced they won’t bring Goldschmidt back as they rebuild. At 37, he might follow Carlos Santana’s path of one-year deals to close out his career.
Related: 4 St. Louis Cardinals first basemen candidates to replace Paul Goldschmidt
Max Fried
When healthy, Max Fried ranks among baseball’s best pitchers. The key phrase: when healthy. The left-hander has battled arm issues the last two seasons with the Atlanta Braves, raising red flags as he enters free agency. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden projects Fried will receive a six-year, $174 million contract. Teams must carefully evaluate his health outlook before committing such money.
Carlos Estévez
Carlos Estévez was one of the best relievers at the trade deadline. He was supposed to shore up the backend of the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen after being acquired from the Los Angeles Angels. However, the Phillies didn’t get the same pitcher he was with the Angels. Estévez averaged 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings, the lowest of his career. He will always be remembered in Philadelphia for surrendering a grand slam to Francisco Lindor in Game 4 of the NLDS that propelled the Mets to the NLCS. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden predicts Estévez will receive a three-year, $33 million deal.