NFL Week 6 delivers a potential Super Bowl preview with a Sunday afternoon battle between the Houston Texans vs Green Bay Packers. Both teams are coming off impressive wins and sit near the top of the NFL power rankings rankings right now. Below, we’ll preview the Texans vs Packers matchup with stats to know and matchups to watch.
A matchup between Green Bay and Houston could be the best game on Sunday, which is saying something for a slate that includes the Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers. The stakes are also pretty significant for both clubs.
Related: NFL Week 7 predictions, including Packers vs Texans
Let’s immediately dive into the stats to know and matchups to watch for the Texans vs Packers game.
21.5% – Green Bay Packers defensive pressure rate (14th in NFL)
It’s well known at this point that the Packers defense excels at generating takeaways. Entering Week 7, Green Bay boasts the second-most interceptions (nine) and the most fumble recoveries (eight) in the NFL. It’s led to opponents turning the football over on 24.2 percent of their drives, per Pro Football Reference, by far the highest rate in the NFL.
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However, C.J. Stroud and this Texans offense should see some things to like about this matchup from their perspective. Heading into NFL games today, Green Bay ranks 14th in pressure rate (21.5 percent), 23rd in QB knockdown rate (6.8 percent) and is tied for 14th in sack rate (7.2 percent). That’s in part thanks to 9 pressures and 9 hurries generated on Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals, when the Packers had a huge lead and their defense could pin its ears back and go after Kyler Murray.
That’s highly unlikely to be the case against the Texans. While Houston is having some issues up front this season – allowing the seventh-most sacks (10) and ninth-most pressures (61) per Pro Football Focus – the Packers’ pass rush has fallen short in other favorable matchups. If this defensive front can’t make C.J. Stroud uncomfortable, it could be the difference-maker in the Texans vs Packers matchup.
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45.5 – Jordan Love’s QB differential from clean pocket versus when pressured
In Week 6 against the Arizona Cardinals, Jordan Love completed 22-of-32 attempts for 258 yards with 4 touchdowns and a 119.5 QB rating. Love’s lone interception came because a receiver slipper and hit the ground, however, Love still had issues when pressured. Of the 11 times Arizona managed to pressure Love on Sunday (30.6 percent pressure rate), he completed just 55.6 percent of his 9 attempts. From a clean pocket, he had a 73.9 percent completion rate with 3 touchdowns and a 119.2 QB rating.
Related: NFL QB rankings
| Jordan Love stats | QB Rating | Completion % | TD% – INT% |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs Pressure | 61.9 | 40.9 | 6.8% – 6.8% |
| vs Clean Pocket | 107.4 | 66.7 | 8.8% – 2.9% |
DeMeco Ryans’ defense knows how to get after the quarterback. Heading into Sunday’s game, the Texans defense boasts the 10th-highest pressure rate (23.6 percent) in the NFL with the fourth-highest sack rate (9.5 percent). Houston is even better as of late, recording a 33.3 percent pressure rate in Week 6 (New England Patriots) and a 41.7 percent pressure rate on Josh Allen in Week 5. It puts more emphasis on the Packers offensive line, which ranks league-average in ESPN pass-block win rate (60 percent) this year.
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121.5 – C.J. Stroud’s QB rating on play-action passes (7th in NFL)
The Texans welcomed running back Joe Mixon back in Week after a month-long absence. Even after a prolonged absence, receiving a limited workload, Mixon turned 15 touches into 132 scrimmage yards with 2 total touchdowns, while averaging 7.8 yards per carry. In related news, the Texans offense erupted for a season-high 41 points and Stroud recorded a 100.5 QB rating.
| C.J. Stroud stats | QB Rating | Completion % | TD% – INT% | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| on Play Action | 121.5 | 72.3 | 8.5% – 2.1% | 9.5 |
| NO Play Action | 91.9 | 67.1 | 3.7% – 1.9% | 7.0 |
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The Packers run defense isn’t as bad as it used to be, ranking 11th-best in yards per carry average (4.3) and eighth in rushing yards per game allowed (110) through six weeks. Though, it’s worth noting Green Bay is 28th in ESPN run-stop win rate (29 percent) and ranks 24th in Pro Football Focus‘ run defense (56.1) grade. Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is also a Kyle Shanahan disciple and loves running the football, as long as Mixon is back there. How the Packers defense fares on first downs against the run will have a strong influence on the success of Houston’s play-action and the down-and-distance Stroud works with on third downs.
414 – Jayden Reed’s receiving yards vs zone coverage (1st in NFL)
The Packers found their Davante Adams replacement in Jayden Reed. The second-year wide receiver doesn’t have the eye-popping NFL stats you’d expect from a No. 1 weapon in a great offense, but that’s because Green Bay spreads the football around so much. However, this Texans vs Packers matchup could be the opportunity for Love to pepper Reed with targets.
- Jayden Reed stats vs zone coverage (PFF): 25 targets (19th), 22 receptions (5th), 414 receiving yards (1st), 18.8 yards per reception (8th), 132.1 QB rating when targeted (8th)
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All three starting Texans cornerbacks – Derek Stingley Jr (54.5 percent), Kamari Lassiter (57.2 percent) and Jalen Pitre (53.6 percent) – play a majority of their snaps in zone coverage. While Ryans will also deploy them in man coverage fairly frequently, this is a zone-heavy team and they have given up some big plays in it. It’s a golden opportunity for Reed, one that will both challenge him against a talented secondary and provide some opportunities for big plays. While the Texans have quite a few advantages, this is a clear edge for Green Bay.