The 2023 NFL Draft has the potential to be one of the wildest in several years. While everyone knows who will be the first pick – Bryce Young – the remainder of what goes down is completely up in the air. With NFL teams more divided than ever on the top prospects and how deep this class is, it promises to be an eventful three-day event.
It’s going to be an unpredictable draft, especially the first round. Keep in mind that a majority of NFL teams assigned limited first-round grades this year. The Indianapolis Colts only have 17 players rated as some first-round talents, other teams have fewer and Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane admitted this class is not great.
While that might be a disappointment to some, it also opens the door to a lot of surprises, draft-day slides and potential trades in Round 1. It’s why this year is especially fun for making NFL Draft predictions because anything can happen.
Related: 2023 NFL Draft date, time, how to watch
Let’s dive into our bold predictions for the 2023 NFL Draft.
Las Vegas Raiders trade up for C.J. Stroud
It’s well-documented at this point that Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud is a divisive prospect. One NFL executive views him as undraftable, some analysts think he might be the best quarterback in the class and a majority of evaluators see him as a top-10 talent.
With the Colts focused on Will Levis and the Houston Texans reportedly not interested in Stroud, he could be in for a small slide on draft night. If he slips past the first two picks, multiple teams will be interested in moving up for him.
If the Arizona Cardinals stay put, not liking the quality of the offers for the third overall pick, Stroud slides to the fifth pick. At that point, the Seattle Seahawks will likely be heavily interested in acquiring more draft capital in exchange for moving down a few spots.
Related: 2023 NFL Draft order
It would be the perfect opportunity for the Las Vegas Raiders. They’ve scouted the top quarterback prospects and Stroud is one of their top options and are willing to trade up. Stroud would instantly provide Las Vegas with its franchise quarterback of the future and moving up two spots for him wouldn’t cost the Raiders their 2024 first-round pick.
Jalen Carter slides to the Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Carter is the best player in the 2023 draft class, but NFL teams clearly have off-field concerns with him. Beyond the concerning performance at Georgia’s Pro Day, there are also red flags regarding his decision-making away from the field. Far more troublesome for teams are the negative reports regarding Carter’s work ethic and commitment to football.
The red flags are large enough to push the 6-foot-3 defensive tackle down several spots on draft night. Once viewed as a lock to be selected within the first three picks, there is now a realistic chance he makes it out of the top five. At that point, everything is up in the air.
However, this would be something the Philadelphia Eagles view as an opportunity with the 10th pick. They have a strong regime with a track record of taking chances on players and helping them avoid further mistakes. Plus, general manager Howie Roseman loves investing in the trenches. Add Carter to the Eagles’ defensive line and they could be the best NFL defense in 2023.
Related: 2023 NFL Draft prospect rankings
Kansas City Chiefs trade up for Quentin Johnston
The Kansas City Chiefs won a Super Bowl without Tyreek Hill, but they know quarterback Patrick Mahomes needs more explosive offensive weapons. JuJu Smith-Schuster is gone and Travis Kelce is approaching his mid-30s, so there is no better time than the present to find playmakers.
Related: Kansas City Chiefs reportedly high on Quentin Johnston
Kansas City invested significant resources into scouting the 2023 wide receiver prospects. The team had Zay Flowers take part in a previously unplanned workout with Mahomes and there’s been some buzz about trading up for a pass-catcher.
Quentin Johnston isn’t a flawless wide receiver prospect, drops and inconsistency are major issues for him. However, there’s no player more explosive with the football in his hands than Johnston and his mix of size (6-foot-3) and speed make him a dangerous vertical threat. If he slips into the mid-20s, that’s absolutely a spot where the Chiefs would likely be comfortable moving up for him.
Five quarterbacks are drafted in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft
We certainly won’t see NFL history made on Thursday night, the record for most quarterbacks drafted in the first round (six, 1983 NFL Draft) won’t be touched. However, it seems very likely that five quarterbacks will hear their names called by Roger Goodell.
Related: NFL scouts blast 2023 QB class
The last time five quarterbacks were taken in the first round happened in the 2022 NFL Draft. Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance went off the board with the first three picks. A few minutes later, Justin Fields went 11th overall and Mac Jones was selected with the 15th pick.
- 1st overall: Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
- 3rd overall: Anthony Richardson, Tennessee Titans
- 4th overall: Will Levis, Indianapolis Colts
- 5th overall pick: C.J. Stroud, Las Vegas Raiders
- 23rd overall pick: Hendon Hooker, Minnesota Vikings
There’s a reason why NFL teams are more willing to spend a first-round pick on a quarterback than any other position. It’s the fifth-year team option, providing a franchise with a crucial piece of contract control. It can be the difference in tens of millions of dollars, highlighted by the fact that the Eagles made Jalen Hurts (53rd overall pick) one of the highest-paid NFL players this spring because he was entering a contract year. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers (Justin Herbert), Cincinnati Bengals (Joe Burrow) and Miami Dolphins (Tua Tagovailoa) don’t have to rush a contract extension with their fifth-year team options providing contract control through 2024.
The fifth quarterback drafted will be Hendon Hooker. While Hooker is recovering from an ACL tear, NFL teams raved about his pre-draft interviews and some view him as the third-best quarterback in the class. With multiple teams likely willing to trade up into the late-20s for him, drafting him at 23 might be the Minnesota Vikings‘ only shot at him.
Related: 5 NFL teams with the most at stake in the 2023 NFL Draft
Dallas Cowboys draft Bijan Robinson
The NFL is devaluing running backs, it’s been happening for years. Players like Ezekiel Elliott, Le’Veon Bell and Todd Gurley were once some of the sport’s biggest stars and its highest-paid players. Now, Elliott is the only one left and he’s struggling to find a suitor in free agency.
There are sound arguments for not drafting a running back in the first round and it’s right in most cases. The Pittsburgh Steelers (Najee Harris) and Jacksonville Jaguars (Travis Etienne) made mistakes with their first-round picks in 2021 and the same can be said for the Chiefs (Clyde Edwards-Helaire, 2020), Raiders (Josh Jacobs, 2019) and Giants (Saqon Barkley, 2018).
Bijan Robinson is different. He’s more well-rounded than Barkley, offering far more consistency as a runner and he’s better in pass protection. Plus, unlike Barkley, no NFL team is likely willing to even spend a top-10 pick on Robinson.
If Robinson is still available in the 20s, he’s the most talented player available. In a draft with few consensus opinions, a wide majority of NFL scouts grade Robinson as a top-five talent. He starred at Texas, something that owner Jerry Jones will like even more. When Dallas is on the clock with the 26th pick, Robinson could be the player who has the biggest influence on their team next season. With Tony Pollard on a one-year deal and recovering from a fractured fibula, Robinson can be the new star in the Cowboys’ backfield.