Bailey Zappe: 3 reasonable expectations for the New England Patriots’ new starting QB

By Andrew Buller-Russ

·Updated: October 6, 2022

To say the New England Patriots‘ start to their season hasn’t gone as planned would be an understatement. Not only has Bill Belichick’s team started 1-3, they lost starting quarterback Mac Jones to a high ankle sprain, and now backup QB Brian Hoyer has hit injured reserve too. Bailey Zappe is the new starting QB for the Patriots, but he’s a fourth-round rookie who saw 136 other players and four other QBs selected before him in April.

With Jones still limited in practices as he recovers from a serious ankle sprain and with Hoyer out for at least four weeks, Zappe’s set to start on Sunday against the Detroit Lions. Jones could be targeting a Week 6 return, but even that is up in the air, meaning Zappe could get more than just one start as a first-year pro.

Taking over an offense that’s scored the tenth-fewest points in football through four weeks, what should the Patriots expect out of the 23-year-old rookie out of Western Kentucky?

Bailey Zappe could surprise NFL community

While he may not have much experience as a pro, Bailey Zappe is coming off an extremely productive college season in which he led the nation with 5,967 yards and 62 touchdowns at Western Kentucky. Sure, it’s college, and it came in the Conference USA division, which doesn’t come anywhere close to SEC play, but still, Zappe led the entire nation. That has to stand for something.

If there’s one thing we’ve seen from coach Bill Belichick over the years, it’s that he doesn’t care where you were drafted or even what sport you played before finding a way onto the roster. He’ll do his best to coach his athletes into football players, and Zappe has shown, at least on one level, he can be an extremely prolific passer.

Now does that mean Zappe can immediately continue that success in the pros? Probably not. Rookies have growing pains, especially at the QB position. Heck, even Peyton Manning still holds the NFL’s all-time rookie interceptions record. Zappe won’t have that long of a leash, and he’s nowhere near as good as any Manning, but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t have some dimes in his starting debut.

Patriots’ inconsistency issues on offense won’t disappear any time soon

Anyone expecting another QB change to lead to dramatically improved results in the short term are likely to be disappointed. It’s not Mac Jones, Brian Hoyer, or even Bailey Zappe’s fault the team is 1-3 with the fifth-fewest passing touchdowns in football. This likely dates back to coach Belichick’s decision not to bring in a true offensive coordinator this offseason.

Instead it’s the Matt Patricia and Joe Judge show, despite both coaches being previously touted for their defensive and special teams backgrounds, not for running an NFL offense. The lack of an elite playmaking wideout doesn’t help either. As of now, Zappe is the only rookie QB to have a touchdown pass this season. Now that Kenny Pickett‘s also been named the starter in Pittsburgh, chances are he won’t be alone for long.

Bailey Zappe still gives the Patriots a chance to win on Sunday

One aspect Zappe has going for him is being able to operate behind one of the better offensive lines in football. Mac Jones may take the eighth-longest time to get rid of the ball, but the second-year pro had only been sacked five times. Zappe will have the benefit many rookie QBs simply don’t have, and that’s being able to rely on solid protection up front.

The Patriots may not have a bonafide No. 1 receiver, but maybe that only allows Zappe to grow as he learns to go through his progressions instead of getting stuck on the same option. Then again, Zappe didn’t have any NFL talent in college either, so to him, Nelson Agholor, DeVante Parker, Jakobi Meyers, and Kendrick Bourne will feel like five-star prospects.

Zappe’s first start comes against a Detroit Lions team that ranks dead last in yards and points allowed. They also couldn’t force the Seattle Seahawks to punt even once last week, allowing 48 points. Yet, the Lions have managed to put up points in a hurry, as they also rank first in the league in scoring.

If the Patriots can’t limit Detroit offensively, Zappe might get a chance to air it out on Sunday more than anyone ever expected in his first season in New England. While it may not quite be the same legend as former sixth-round pick Tom Brady leading a Super Bowl victory in his second season, Zappe finding immediate success as a rookie would be a sight to see.