Week 18 of the 2024 NFL season is just as much about the battle for playoff positioning and the final spots in the postseason as it is determining the order for the 2025 NFL Draft. While the best NFL teams have plenty at stake on Sunday, teams at the bottom of the NFL standings are competing for draft position.
In recent weeks, we’ve already seen the Las Vegas Raiders and then the New York Giants lose control of the first overall pick with surprising victories. Now the New England Patriots are currently in position to have the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, but a lot can change on Sunday.
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Below you can find the 2025 NFL Draft order scenarios on the line in Wee 18.
2025 NFL Draft order scenarios: First overall pick clinching scenarios
Here are the clinching scenarios this week for the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
- New England Patriots – vs Buffalo Bills
- New England Patriots loss to the Buffalo Bills
- New England Patriots tie + Tennessee Titans win/tie + Cleveland Browns win/tie + NY Giants tie
- New England Patriots tie vs Bills + Titans win/tie + Browns tie + Giants win/tie
- New England Patriots tie vs Bills + Titans tie + Browns win/tie + Giants win/tie
- Tennessee Titans win + Cleveland Browns win + New York Giants win
- Tennessee Titans – vs Houston Texans
- Tennessee Titans loss to the Houston Texans + New England Patriots win/tie
- Tennessee Titans tie + Patriots win + Browns win/tie + Giants win/tie
- Cleveland Browns – @ Baltimore Ravens
- Cleveland Browns loss to the Baltimore Ravens + Patriots win/tie + Titans win/tie
- Cleveland Browns tie + Patriots win + Titans win + Giants win/tie
- New York Giants – @ Philadelphia Eagles
- New York Giants loss to the Philadelphia Eagles + Patriots win/tie + Titans win/tie + Browns win/tie
- New York Giants tie + Patriots win + Titans win + Browns win
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Potential 2025 NFL Draft pick orders after Week 18
Here is a quick look at what the top of the 2025 NFL Draft order would look like if all four teams competing for the first pick lose in Week 18.
- New England Patriots — (3-14) — Strength of Schedule tiebreaker
- Tennessee Titans — (3-14) — .515% SOS
- Cleveland Browns — (3-14) — .540% SOS
- New York Giants — (3-14) — .551% SOS
| Pick | Team | Record | Strength of Schedule |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | 3-13 | .467 |
| 2 | Tennessee Titans | 3-13 | .515 |
| 3 | Cleveland Browns | 3-13 | .540 |
| 4 | New York Giants | 3-13 | .551 |
| 5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-12 | .474 |
| 6 | Carolina Panthers | 4-12 | .496 |
| 7 | New York Jets | 4-12 | .500 |
| 8 | Las Vegas Raiders | 4-12 | .544 |
| 9 | Chicago Bears | 4-12 | .555 |
| 10 | New Orleans Saints | 5-11 | .507 |
The tiebreaker for the NFL Draft order is primarily the strength of schedule, with the team that has the lower strength of schedule receiving the higher draft pick.
Of note, all teams currently outside the top 10 picks have 6 wins or more. As a result, none of them can pick higher than 10th in he 2025 NFL Draft even with a loss in Week 18.
Who currently has the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft?
The New England Patriots currently have the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft followed by the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns and New York Giants.
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How can the Patriots get the number 1 pick?
The New England Patriots can get the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft by losing to the Buffalo Bills this week.
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How can the Titans get the number 1 pick?
The Tennessee Titans can get the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft by losing to the Houston Texans and with a New England Patriots win over the Buffalo Bills.
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How can the Browns get the number 1 pick?
The Cleveland Browns can get the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft with a loss to the Baltimore Ravens and with wins or ties by the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots.
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How can the Giants get the number 1 pick?
The New York Giants can get the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft with a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and wins or ties by the New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns this week.
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