It wouldn’t be Thanksgiving without the Dallas Cowboys playing football while households across the nation reminisce about John Madden’s fascination with the Turducken. This year, the Cowboys play host to their NFC East rivals, with the Washington Commanders paying a visit to AT&T Stadium on Thursday.
The game kicks off at 4:30 PM ET on CBS, and millions will be watching in between plates of turkey, potatoes, and of course, plenty of pie. Yet, if you’re like other football fanatics hoping you can stave off the tryptophan and keep your eyelids open for the whole game, we’ve got a treat for you.
On paper, the 7-3 Cowboys should have no trouble demolishing the 4-7 Commanders, but as we all know, the game of football is not played on paper. It’s played on the gridiron, where the oblong-shaped football can lead to crazy bounces and even crazier outcomes.
Here are our four bold predictions for Thanksgiving Day’s Commanders vs. Cowboys game.
Related: Full Thanksgiving Day NFL schedule
Sam Howell throws for 400 yards
While he’s played 11 games, and others have played 10, Sam Howell is the NFL’s passing yardage leader heading into NFL games today. No one could have predicted that before the year began, but his 276.2 YPG average ranks fourth in the NFL, behind just C.J. Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa, and Kirk Cousins.
Howell has four games topping 300 yards, but none crossing the 400-yard mark. Yet, he did come close, with a 397-yard outburst against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 8. But Howell hasn’t played the Cowboys yet, at least not this season.
The last time Howell took on Dan Quinn’s Dallas defense came in the first start of his NFL career, in Week 18 of the 2022 season. The Commanders won, but Howell completed just 11-of-19 passes for 169 yards, with a touchdown and an interception.
Even though they don’t have All-Pro cornerback Trevon Diggs anymore due to injury, the Cowboys still have a top-ten passing defense coming into today’s matchup. In fact, Dallas allows just five yards per pass attempt, the fourth-best mark in the NFL. They also rank fourth in interceptions and have allowed the second-fewest passing yards in football. In other words, Howell will be up against one of the best secondaries in the NFL.
But that doesn’t mean he and the Commanders won’t try to air it out anyway. Expect the Commanders to do what other teams have done, and continue testing Daron Bland, despite the Cowboys cornerback tying an NFL record for pick-sixes in a single season. With speedsters like Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel, the opportunity to capitalize on big plays will be there. But could Howell really top 400 yards? If so, it’d be his most productive day yet.
Related: See where Dak Prescott and Sam Howell land in Sportsnaut’s NFL QB rankings
Dak Prescott tosses three interceptions
Coming into the season, there was this sudden false narrative that Dak Prescott had a tendency to throw interceptions. That’s just not true. While Prescott was the NFL’s interceptions leader in 2022, with 15 picks thrown, he remains one of the best QBs in league history when it comes to ball protection, ranking 10th-best all-time in interception rate.
Even after changing his offensive coordinator and play-caller, Prescott has returned to top form this season, with just six interceptions through ten starts. Three of those picks came in one game, against the San Francisco 49ers, who have picked off more passes than any other team in the NFL entering play today.
Meanwhile, the Commanders are on the opposite end of the spectrum and have intercepted just six passes all season, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. Yet, this defensive unit has to be starved for a better performance after allowing undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito to shine with 246 yards and three touchdowns without turning the ball over once.
The Commanders haven’t recorded an interception since their Week 9 matchup against Mac Jones and the Patriots. But what should help this secondary is a certain level of familiarity with Prescott, who held him to just 128 yards and a paltry 37.8 percent completion rate in last season’s Week 18 loss.
Dallas will likely look to take advantage of a Washington defense that’s allowed the third-most passing yards in the NFL, giving the Commanders plenty of chances to get their hands on Prescott’s passes. Whether they’re up for the challenge will be another story. But the opportunity to intercept Prescott three times will be there. It’s just that few expect such an outcome today.
Related: Updated Week 12 NFL MVP odds
Micah Parsons racks up four sacks
If there’s a game to watch Micah Parsons on every play, it’s this one. Already one of the best game-wreckers, if not the best, in the NFL, Parsons is a big problem for his opponent every week, especially against young QBs like Howell.
Parsons is coming off one of his best games yet, winning 40 percent of his pass rushes and recording 2.5 sacks against Bryce Young. The story could be the same against Washington, who have allowed the second-most sacks in the NFL this season. This puts Howell on pace to set a new NFL record, but not a good one.
Right now, David Carr holds the NFL record, having been sacked 76 times in a single season back in 2002. Howell’s averaging 4.6 sacks per game, putting him on track to be sacked 78.8 times this year. Obviously, that’s not ideal.
There’s only been one game this season where Howell has been sacked fewer than three times, but we’re not anticipating that to happen with Parsons on the other side of the line of scrimmage. It doesn’t really matter where the weakness in your protection scheme is. Parsons will find it.
Related: Super Bowl odds for all 32 NFL teams
Washington Commanders sneak out of Jerry World with a win
Coming into today’s matchup, no one is giving the Commanders a chance against the Cowboys. Dallas is favored by a whopping 12.5 points. Considering there isn’t a single team in the NFL that allows more points per game than the Commanders, who recently traded away their two best pass-rushers, it makes sense that the odds are heavily weighed in the Cowboys’ favor.
Not to mention, despite being second in their division, this Dallas team is actually tied for having the best point differential in the NFL at +127, indicating the Cowboys may very well be one of the very best groups in the league.
However, even the best teams have bad days. Otherwise, we’d see teams complete perfect seasons. Coach Rivera has seen his team lose two in a row. They’re slipping out of postseason contention fast. There is no more room for error if there’s any slim hope of sneaking into a Wild Card spot.
Is Dallas the better team? Absolutely. But that doesn’t mean the Commanders can’t ruin the Cowboys’ Thanksgiving by flying home as winners after connecting on big plays and winning the turnover battle too. Sometimes desperation plays well, and we could see that come to life today in Dallas.
Related: Check Sportsnaut’s NFL Playoff Predictions; Who’s going to the Super Bowl?