Get a round of UFC predictions for the promotion’s next card, UFC 296 this Saturday night.
This weekend will bring the company’s final pay-per-view event for 2023 and it is a jam-packed card with several major matchups, as well as two title fights. Headling the event inside the T-Mobile Arena is a welterweight championship bout that will see Leon Edwards defend his belt for a second time against two-time title challenger Colby Covington.
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In the co-main event, reigning flyweight king Alexandre Pantoja will compete in a rematch when he defends his recently won belt for the first time against Brandon Royval. “Raw Dawg” suffered a submission loss to the champion in a previous matchup two years ago.
UFC 296 will also include the returns of fan favorites Paddy Pimblett, Stephen Thompson, Bryce Mitchell, and former champions Cody Garbrandt and Tony Ferguson. With all of that in mind, we make four bold UFC predictions for several of the major bouts at the event as well as make UFC picks for the complete card this Saturday.
Bold UFC predictions for UFC 296 on Saturday night
Leon Edwards (21-3) vs. Colby Covington (17-3)
Leon Edwards has a very test ahead of him on Saturday. Yes, MMA math says he should be able to defeat a fighter who was beaten by the man he upended in his last two bouts, Kamaru Usman. However, while Covington and Usman are similar, they are also very different.
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“Chaos” pushes a seriously hard pace with a very high strike output and constant wrestling that can be matched by very few. The Englishman’s takedown defense is rock-solid, but it will be interesting to see if it and his cardio can hold up to constant testing from his opponent.
“Rocky” has the striking to put Covington to sleep at UFC 296, but this just feels like the right kind of matchup for the challenger in what could be his last championship opportunity if he fails.
- UFC 296 odds: Leon Edwards (-148) vs. Colby Covington (+124)
- Prediction: Covington by TKO, Round 4
Alexandre Pantoja (26-5) vs. Brandon Royval (15-6)
Both Pantoja and Royval are better fighters than they were when they first fought two years ago. However, the Brazilian has shown he can compete and win at an elite level. That is something the American has the challenge of proving at UFC 296. Has he evolved his wild style with more elements of big-fight nuance?
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If “Raw Dawg” and the Factory X crew don’t bring some surprising wrinkles and strategy on Saturday, don’t be surprised if the rematch ends the same way as the last fight.
- Odds: Alexandre Pantoja (-175) vs. Brandon Royval (+145)
- UFC Prediction: Pantoja by submission, Round 5
Tony Ferguson (25-9) vs. Paddy Pimblett (20-3)
Popular lightweight fighter Paddy Pimblett is a big favorite over former champion Tony Ferguson at UFC 296. But the betting line is more about “El Cucuy’s” age-related fall from grace than Pimblett being an unstoppable young force on the level of Khamzat Chimaev of Shavkat Rakhmonov. Nevertheless, “The Baddy” has something to prove.
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He was on the positive side of a very controversial decision in his last outing and there are many doubters about him being the real deal. While Ferguson will likely offer the young star a scary moment or two on Saturday, look for a motivated Pimblett to put on a show in a favorable matchup against the fast-aging legend.
- Odds: Tony Ferguson (+285) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-360)
- UFC Prediction: Pimblett by submission, Round 2
Josh Emmett (18-4) vs. Bryce Mitchell (16-1)
Bryce Mitchell is jumping in on short notice to face Josh Emmett in a bout that has fight-of-the-night potential. The big question in this one is can Mitchell use his outstanding grappling to get Emmett down often and keep him there?
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The 38-year-old comes from a strong wrestling camp in Team Alpha Male and he will be prepared for Mitchell’s persistent approach. Emmett will certainly lose a round during the fight, but the aging featherweight will still do enough in the other two rounds to grind out a hard-fought split-decision win.
- Odds: Josh Emmett (+160) vs. Bryce Mitchell (-192)
- UFC Prediction: Emmett by split decision
UFC 296 predictions
Main Card
- Leon Edwards (-162) vs. Colby Covington (+136) – Covington by TKO, Round 4
- Alexandre Pantoja (-192) vs. Brandon Royval (+160) – Pantoja by submission, Round 5
- Shavkat Rakhmonov (-625) vs. Stephen Thompson (+455) – Rakhmonov by TKO, Round 2
- Tony Ferguson (+250) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-310) – Pimblett by submission, Round 2
- Josh Emmett (+180) vs. Bryce Mitchell (-218) – Emmett by split-decision
Preliminary Card
- Alonzo Menifield (+220) vs. Dustin Jacoby (-270) – Jacoby by unanimous decision
- Irene Aldana (-185) vs. Karol Rosa (+154) – Aldana by split-decision
- Cody Garbrandt (-192) vs. Brian Kelleher (+160) – Garbrandt by unanimous decision
- Casey O’Neill (-185) vs. Ariane Lipski (+154) – Lipski by unanimous decision
- Tagir Ulanbekov (-180) vs. Cody Durden (+150) – Ulanbekov by submission, Round 1
- Andre Fili (-170) vs. Luca Almeida (+142) – Almeida by TKO, Round 3
- Shamil Gaziev (+105) vs. Martin Buday (-125) – Gaziev by KO, Round 1