The Texas Rangers have spent $561 million on Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, and Kole Calhoun this MLB offseason, leading to speculation that Clayton Kershaw, a Dallas native, could be their next signing.
Kershaw is arguably the best starting pitcher remaining on the free-agent market, but there are several factors at play with the veteran southpaw. While Texas is improved and homecomings can be fun, adding Kershaw isn’t in their best interest.
Here’s why the Rangers shouldn’t sign Kershaw.
Related: Updated MLB rumors
Clayton Kershaw is a gamble for the Texas Rangers
When healthy, Kershaw, 33, is still a top-of-the-rotation force. The problem? His health continues to be an issue. Kershaw has endured back, elbow, and biceps injuries over the last six years. Consequently, he hasn’t made 30 regular-season starts since 2015 and didn’t finish 2021 due to an elbow flare.
Any team signing Kershaw is improving their ball club at the mercy of his health. Texas isn’t the type of team that should be taking a risk on a pitcher in Kershaw’s situation. He’s tailor-made for a contending team at this stage of his MLB career.
For instance, it makes sense for a team like the Boston Red Sox or Chicago White Sox, who are each American League contenders, to take a chance on Kershaw. They can justify a hefty, short-term investment in a proven commodity even one that comes with a great deal of risk like Kershaw; he’s a savvy, off-speed pitcher who provides length and is battle-tested in the postseason.
- Clayton Kershaw stats (2021): 3.55 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 144 strikeouts across 121.2 innings (22 starts)
If this were last offseason, when the Rangers seemed poised to be one of the worst teams in the sport, they could pitch signing Kershaw and moving him for prospects at the MLB trade deadline. This time around, the team projects to be respectable and have compelling ways to fill out their rotation.
The Rangers have spent a historic amount of money, as is. Why give out a $20-plus million salary to a Wild Card? That money could be split between two players or preserved for the next offseason when the Rangers are presumably a better team.
Texas Rangers should be focused on their young starting arms
The double-play duo of Seager and Semien surely headlines the new-look Rangers. That said, the deepest and could-be featured part of their program in the near future is starting pitching. There are a lot of young arms.
While he labored a bit, Dane Dunning was a respectable force in his first extensive big-league experience. AJ Alexy got some invaluable big-league reps last season.
Acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies as part of their return on right-hander Kyle Gibson, former top pitching prospect Spencer Howard could be in store for his first season as a full-time MLB starting pitcher.
- Clayton Kershaw contract prediction: two-year, $40 million deal
Inked to a four-year, $56 million deal, Gray becomes the Rangers’ ace. The 30-year-old has found success in the past with the Colorado Rockies, logging strikeouts at a plausible rate. Maybe he has a breakout season with a new coaching staff?
All the while, top pitching prospects Cole Winn and Jack Leiter could make their MLB debuts within the next 16 months; Winn found success in both Double and Triple-A last season while Leiter, the No. 2 pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, is 21 and fresh out of Vanderbilt University.
Kershaw doesn’t make Rangers that much better in 2022
The Rangers were 60-102 last season and have made a handful of impactful signings. They’re a safe bet to improve by at least 10 games next season. There’s a catch, though: the AL West is packed.
While they likely lose Carlos Correa to free agency when the MLB lockout ends, the Houston Astros just reached the World Series for the third time in five years and are loaded across the board. The Seattle Mariners won 90 games last season with a young roster, have upside, and added Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier.
Major trades could be on the horizon for the Oakland Athletics (e.g. Matt Olson and Matt Chapman), but they figure to at least be a competitive force given their track record of developing players. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Angels signed Noah Syndergaard and should have Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon healthy.
The point? It’s difficult to get a gauge on how many teams the Rangers are better than in their division. Furthermore, how many teams are they better than with Kershaw? Every member of manager Chris Woodward’s starting rotation either has an injury history, needs to adjust to a new team, or has minimal MLB experience.
The Rangers have a foundation and reason to be bullish about their future, but Clayton Kershaw isn’t going to put them over the top in 2022. A signing of such is better suited for the next offseason.