NFL insider offers insight on potential trade cost for San Francisco 49ers QB Trey Lance

The San Francisco 49ers traded three first-round picks and a third-round selection in 2022 to draft quarterback Trey Lance with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Just two years later, the return for him in a trade would be significantly less.

Lance went into the 2022 season as the 49ers’ starting quarterback with Jimmy Garoppolo as his backup. After struggling in Week 1 on a flooded Soldier Field, Lance suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2.

Trey Lance stats (NFL): 84.5 QB rating, 54.9% completion rate, 235 rush yards, 4.4 ypc

As a result of the season-ending injury, Garoppolo led the offense until he suffered a season-ending injury that pushed Brock Purdy into the lineup. After going 5-0 in the regular season with a 107.3 QB rating, Purdy is favored to be the 49ers’ starting quarterback in 2023.

Lance will have an opportunity to reclaim the starting job this summer. With Purdy recovering from elbow surgery and an uncertain timetable for his return, there will be an open competition. However, San Francisco also signed quarterback Sam Darnold and coach Kyle Shanahan is high on his skills.

While there are currently no signs of the 49ers actively shopping Lance around the league, reports have made it clear the coaching staff and front office have lost confidence in him. Lance has only played in nine games since his breakout 2019 season. If San Francisco decides it wants to move him, sticking with Purdy and Donald, it might not take a lot to acquire the former top-three pick.

On the latest You Pod to Win the Game podcast, NFL report Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports shared what he believed would be enough to acquire Lance from the 49ers.

“The compensation for trading for Trey Lance can’t be…I guarantee, I think if you offered San Francisco a two (second-round pick) for Lance right now, you’d get him. I truly believe that. If you offered a second-round pick for Trey Lance, you’d probably get him right now.”
Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson on the potential trade cost of acquiring Trey Lance

There is precedent for a trade like this with a similar return. In July 2021, the Carolina Panthers acquired Darnold from the Jets for second and fourth-round picks in 2022 along with the 226th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Considering Darnold had a better track record in the NFL than Lance, albeit while offering less upside, putting a second-round value on Lance at this point in a trade is reasonable.

For now, San Francisco is committed to at least giving Lance a third opportunity to prove himself. If Purdy returns healthy before the preseason and Darnold impresses, though, it’s possible the 49ers begin to entertain trading Lance.