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NFL insider reveals likely Sam Darnold contract cost this offseason

Sam Darnold
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Sam Darnold entered Week 18 as a fringe NFL MVP candidate with a chance to clinch the No. 1 seed for the Minnesota Vikings along with home-field advantage throughout the NFL playoffs. If he succeeded, Minnesota would have a first-round bye and the upcoming free agent would make tens of millions more in NFL free agency. Now, all of that is gone.

On Sunday Night Football at Ford Field against the Detroit Lions, Darnold had one of the worst performances of his career. He completed just 18-of-41 passes (43.9 percent completion rate), averaging just 4.0 yards per attempt with a 55.5 QB rating and 2 sacks taken in a 31-9 loss.

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  • Sam Darnold stats 2024 (ESPN): 4,319 passing yards, 35-12 TD-INT, 66.2% completion rate, 7.9 yards per attempt, 102.5 QB rating, 212 rushing yards, 1 TD

Even with the loss, Minnesota had already punched its ticket to the playoffs. A Wild Card Round matchup provided the 27-year-old quarterback to exercise his demons against the other team he lost to this season. If he rebounded, Darnold could’ve recouped come of his lost earning power.

Instead, the Vikings lost 27-9 to the Los Angeles Rams. While Darnold recorded 245 passing yards and a touchdown, he tied an NFL playoff record with 9 sacks taken and had 2 turnovers. The performance knocked Minnesota out of the playoffs and turned a potential $45-plus million AAV contract for Darnold into less.

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ESPN’s senior NFL reporter Jeremy Fowler spoke with executives from multiple teams who all said that Darnold’s recent performances have absolutely tanked some of his value. While he was never going to get $50-plus million per season, even on the open market, he’s still likely cost himself tens of millions of dollars.

  • Sam Darnold career earnings (Spotrac): $65.253 million

Instead of potentially landing in the Kirk COusins ($45 million AAV) or Matthew Stafford ($40 million AAV) range, NFL executives now think Darnold will get far less than $40 million. As of now, early contract projections from those around the league have Darnold falling in the range of the Geno Smith contract ($25 million AAV) and the Baker Mayfield contract ($33.33 million AAV).

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While it’s still going to be a lucrative payday for Darnold, he now won’t come anywhere close to the kind of money many were anticipating before Week 18. He’ll also receive less guaranteed money and potentially have to sign something like the Daniel Jones contract, where his next team can get out of it with relative ease after two seasons.

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