Just like that, the Minnesota Vikings’ season is over. Fans were there for it all, witnessing a year that felt too good to be true, capturing several magical moments on the way to a 13-4 record that ended on another sour note, with a first-round playoff exit. Yet, it’s hard to be too upset over how the first season of the Kwesi Adofo-Mensah/Kevin O’Connell regime turned out.
Few were expecting the Vikings to win more than 10 games, let alone manage to contend for a postseason spot while winning the NFC North. But that’s just what they did despite a patchy defense that rarely had all of its playmakers at full strength.
Now the Vikings must once again try to right the ship, aiming to top last season’s performance by improving over the offseason. Here are just four moves we’d make if we had the keys to the office at TCO Performance Center and the ability to make franchise-altering decisions.
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Cut All-Pro linebacker Eric Kendricks
The Vikings will have some tough decisions to make this offseason. Several of their longtime veterans hold large cap numbers, and their production, as of late, hasn’t matched their paycheck.
One could make the argument that All-Pro safety Harrison Smith is included in that bunch, being that he’s also set to turn 34 in February. Holding a $19 million cap number for 2023 just isn’t feasible. Instead of moving on from Harry the Hitman, we instead like a contract restructure, which could save as much as $9 million from the team’s 2023 cap number.
That’s not an option for fellow All-Pro Eric Kendricks, who’s set to turn 31, yet has led the team in tackles in seven-of-his-eight seasons since being drafted in the second round in 2015. But his play has tailed off the past two years and may not be an ideal fit for defensive coordinator Ed Donatell’s 3-4 scheme, and no, the coach with 11 years of experience as a DC isn’t the problem in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
In 2021, Kendricks wasn’t able to hold up in run defense, where he finished with a 42.9 grade per Pro Football Focus. He had the 11th-highest missed tackle rate among linebackers who played at least 50% of snaps at 13.5%, while the Vikings finished fourth-worst in yards per carry allowed.
This past season saw Kendricks drastically improve, being ranked as the eighth-best run-stopping linebacker, but then his play suffered when dropping into coverage. Kendricks allowed the NFL’s sixth-worst passer rating among linebackers, with teammate Jordan Hicks ranking second-worst. Basically, this was a terrible tandem in pass coverage. For Kendricks, it didn’t make any sense, as he’s routinely regarded as one of the better coverage linebackers in football, but that’s not what we saw in 2022.
Releasing Kendricks can save the team $9.5 million in salary while inflicting a $1.9M cap hit. While he may be poised for a bounce-back season next year, the potential cap savings may be too good to overlook for a team that projects to be $20 million over the cap heading into a new year. Plus, Brian Asamoah may be ready for a bigger role, giving the Vikings a ready-made replacement at a fraction of the cost, growing pains be damned.
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Keep building in the trenches (focus on the defense)
One area the Vikings have gotten much better at is the offensive line. Christian Darrisaw, Garrett Bradbury, and Brian O’Neill are all long-term building blocks. But these investments have only seemingly left the defensive front ignored.
On one hand, this could largely be due to the sudden change from a 4-3 to a 3-4, where Danielle Hunter became an EDGE linebacker instead of a defensive end. Long-term, it makes sense to have Hunter coming off the edge, but only if the Vikings can get him some help with their three down linemen.
The combination of Dalvin Tomlinson, Harrison Phillips, and (insert rotational rando), just didn’t work this season. We frequently heard about Hunter and Za’Darius Smith’s inability to get pressure, but that’s simply not fair. They were doing their jobs. The big uglies up front, were not.
While every defense has a rotation of players they can interchange depending on the situation, Minnesota needs to ensure they can add an impact player on their defensive front to help take pressure off their linebackers and coverage units. This is where they should be focused in the draft, trying to identify a 3-4 defensive end who can eat up space while still being able to pressure QBs.
Free agent fits could include Denver’s Dremont Jones (Donatell coaching ties), or Arizona’s Zach Allen as relatively low-cost improvements, much like Harrison Phillips was a year ago.
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Retain Garrett Bradbury, Duke Shelley, let everyone else walk
Before the year began, the Vikings fanbase was collectively calling for Garrett Bradbury’s head. The former first-round pick entered the NFL with a lot of potential, and the Vikings had a glaring hole at the center position.
He was horrible the first three seasons of his career with the Vikings, commonly getting pushed back in the pocket on pass block sets, but did show some promise, taking advantage of his athleticism to get to the second level of the defense. But Bradbury completely changed the future outlook of his career in his first year under coach O’Connell.
Suddenly instead of ranking in the bottom tier at his position, Bradbury graded out as the 11th-best center and finally looked like the player he was selected to be. Set to turn 28 this offseason, the Vikings would be wise to retain one of the pieces they know actually fits the offensive interior while bringing in more competition at right guard to battle Ed Ingram.
As for the rest of the Vikings’ 15 unrestricted free agents? We say let them all go, except for cornerback Duke Shelley, who proved his value late in the year. That list goes as follows:
- Bradbury
- Patrick Peterson
- Duke Shelley
- Dalvin Tomlinson
- Greg Joseph
- Nick Mullens
- Chandon Sullivan
- Irv Smith Jr.
- Jonathan Bullard
- Austin Schlottmann
- Andrew DePaola (Pro Bowl long snapper)
- Alexander Mattison
- Oli Udoh
- Kris Boyd
- Olabisi Johnson
Some of these names are fairly notable. Greg Joseph had his fair share of bright spots, including the franchise-record 61-yard game-winning kick, but the Vikings need more consistency at the position. At the very least, he needs some competition.
Patrick Peterson is one who, if he wants to return again at a reasonable rate, why not bring back a future Hall of Fame cornerback who is likely still the best player at his position on the roster? Alexander Mattison and Irv Smith can likely receive bigger roles and a bigger payday elsewhere.
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Move on from Adam Thielen, add a dynamic receiver
There aren’t many homegrown Minnesota native football players who have gone on to become NFL stars in recent years. It’s incredible that the undrafted Adam Thielen has. He’s a longtime fan favorite in the North Star state, but everyone likely realizes he’s just not a large part of the offense anymore.
This trend may have to do with the fact that he’s now 32, set to be 33 before next season begins, but more so, Justin Jefferson’s incredible emergence has naturally led to much fewer targets for the 6-foot-2, two-time Pro Bowler.
There’s no doubt he’s still a precise route-runner with good hands who remains a strong redzone target, where his diminishing speed isn’t such a large factor. But once again, we’ve reached the point where his name, is larger than his game. More accurately, his cap number doesn’t match his production.
- Adam Thielen contract: $19M cap hit in 2023, $13M cap hit if cut, $6.4M cap savings if cut
Sure, as mentioned, some of this is a product of becoming now the third option in the offense, at best, behind Jefferson, and T.J. Hockenson, with Dalvin Cook mixing in some rushing opportunities as well. Plus, K.J. Osborn seems primed for a bigger, possibly even a starting role.
The Vikings are set to pick 23rd in the 2023 NFL Draft, but they don’t necessarily have to prioritize finding a top-notch weapon at the receiver position early on. The trade for Hockenson lowered the need for another dynamic playmaker, yet if the opportunity to inject some speed into the offense arises in the first few rounds, the Vikings should absolutely pounce.
If Thielen wants to play his entire career in his home state, we’d like to think the front office can find a fair compromise, reducing his cap number while also explicitly explaining that his role is only likely to continue dwindling, but he’s still capable of helping an NFL team. Then again, that’s just it. Thielen may feel he has too much in the tank to reduce down to being a team’s third or even fourth receiving option. If so, maybe a departure would be best for all parties involved.
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