The 2024 NFL Draft is closing in and this year’s class is viewed as one of the strongest in recent years, especially at critical positions. While draft steals and busts won’t be determined for years, we can highlight some of the most overrated prospects who are receiving a little too much buzz.
We got a few picks wrong last year when listing the most overrated prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft, including Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison. However, there were also a few correct calls in the mix. We’re providing a deeper list this time around. Let’s dive into the most overrated prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft.
J.J. McCarthy, quarterback, Michigan Wolverines
Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy is a first-round talent and could develop into an above-average starter at the next level. However, he is not the caliber of player who you can plug into any situation and expect him to perform. Even putting aside the fact that Michigan took the offense out of his control in big games, he has just average arm strength and he’s just adequate on deep balls. McCarthy hasn’t really proven he can be a ceiling-raiser for the skill players around him and a majority of great quarterbacks in the NFL can all do that. A Kirk Cousins or Brock Purdy outcome is very possible for McCarthy, but that isn’t an elite ceiling and both quarterbacks had a lot of great help around him. That’s why McCarthy is perfect for the Minnesota Vikings.
Related: 2024 NFL Draft quarterback rankings
Ja’Tavion Sanders, tight end, Texas Longhorns
NFL teams should always take a chance on upper-echelon athletes at tight end. That’s how you get outcomes like Travis Kelce (9.29 Relative Athletic Score), George Kittle (9.52 RAS), Sam LaPorta (9.02 RAS) and Evan Engram (9.11 RAS). Success is far from guaranteed, but many of the most productive tight ends in the NFL are fast and explosive.. Ja’Tavion Sanders has the speed, but his 5.73 RAS is also weighed down by below-average explosiveness (30-inch vertical and 9’06’) broad jump. Plus, he’s a work in progress as a route runner and an even bigger project in terms of blocking. Projected to be drafted in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft, we’d much rather roll the dice on Penn State’s Theo Johnson (9.93 RAS) in the middle rounds of the draft.
Related: 2024 NFL Draft tight end rankings, evaluating top prospects
Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami Hurricanes
A Miami Hurricanes safety with 11 interceptions and 11 pass deflections in the past two seasons sounds really enticing. However, Kamren Kinchens demonstrated in the pre-draft process that he doesn’t have the athleticism – 2.43 Relative Athletic Score – to be a playmaker at the next level. What makes his below-average athleticism so much worse is that he’s also undersized (5-foot-11 and 203 pounds) and his judgment on the field has also led to plenty of mistakes both in coverage and against the run. He could be a fine rotational safety at the next level, but there just aren’t enough tools here to suggest Kinchens should be taken within the first 100 picks.
Related: NFL defense rankings 2024
Keon Coleman, wide receiver, Florida State Seminoles
The 2024 NFL Draft class is insanely deep at wide receiver and that pushes Keon Coleman out of the first round. Our rationale for ranking him among the most overrated prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft ties back to the other players available in his range. Ricky Pearsall (9.91 RAS) is a much better athlete than Coleman (8.17 RAS) and his role as a slot receiver means he’ll be more effective down to down. Troy Franklin is an outstanding vertical threat who is even more comfortable on contested catches than Coleman is making explosive plays after the catch and Ja’Lynn Polk is more well-rounded. Coleman can be a fine No. 2 receiver at the next level, but a lack of separation ability means he’ll be more dependent on how accurate his quarterback is.
Related: 2024 NFL Draft prospect rankings
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama Crimson Tide cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry entered his final collegiate season viewed as a potential top-10 prospect for the 2024 NFL Draft. Fast forward a few months and he might only now just make it into the back end of the first round. McKinstry was fine last season in coverage, holding opponents to a 73.1 QB rating (PFF), but he’s going to get beat in coverage by a lot better athletes in the NFL. McKinstry is also overly physical, which will lead to a higher share of penalties as a rookie. We just view McKinstry more as a fringe first-round talent who will have a very long NFL career because of his football IQ and length, but he doesn’t offer the ceiling of a No. 1 cornerback.
Related: Biggest NFL Draft busts ever
Xavier Worthy, wide receiver, Texas Longhorns
The fastest player at the NFL Combine 2024, Texas Longhorns receiver Xavier Worthy made headlines with the best 40 time ever. It’s easy to fall in love with that level of speed and imagine the big plays Worthy can make with the football in his hands. However, at 165 pounds, Worthy would also be one of the smallest receivers in the NFL. Bigger cornerbacks will have no problem jamming him and even just moderate contact can disrupt his timing. As NFL.com also noted, Worhy also had some effort issues in college when he wasn’t involved in the play. Athleticism is great, but the likes of Marquise Brown, Jalin Hyatt, John Ross, Darnell Mooney and Marquise Goodwin prove it might not lead to great success.
Blake Corum, running back, Michigan Wolverines
For now, we’ll put aside the Blake Corum side concerns. He has below-average speed and explosiveness, with his agility scores the only thing helping him finish with an 8.29 Relative Athletic Score. Statistically, per Pro Football Focus, Corum ranked 74th in yards after contact per attempt (2.42), 62nd in missed tackles forced (30) and 74th in Elusive Rating (27.4). As for the argument that he looked healthier and more explosive late in the season, Corum’s numbers on his last 100 carries – 2.01 yards after contact per attempt, 26.2 percent breakaway run rate and 25.1 Elusive rating – look the same.
Related: 2024 NFL Draft running back rankings
Corum does offer outstanding vision, contact balance and he’s a very patient runner with all of those qualities making him effective in short-yardage situations. That can all lead to him being a productive NFL running back, but he has a low ceiling. Add on the fact he’s only 5-foot-7 with an injury history and a heavy workload coming out of college, we’ll roll with other running backs on Day 2.
Dallas Turner, edge rusher, Alabama Crimson Tide
The positional value of edge rushers and the overall skillset of Dallas Turner warrant him being a top-12 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. What lands him on our list of the most overrated prospects in 2024 is his ceiling. Turner is a do-it-all weapon who is comfortable creating pressure, dropping back in coverage and containing the edge as a run defense. However, being an edge rusher who is good at everything but not elite in any area means there isn’t a dominant skill that will stand out on the stat sheet. Turner should still be a very good starter and his coaches will love him, but fans will be disappointed when he’s a top-12 pick and regularly not among the top 10 leaders in sacks.
Related: Best NFL Draft classes ever
Jayden Daniels, quarterback, LSU Tigers
Jayden Daniels runs more recklessly than Josh Allen, except he’s 200 pounds compared to Allen’s 238 pounds. A thin-framed quarterback who routinely exposes himself to additional hits and does a poor job protecting his body is a massive long-term risk on its own. Making matters worse, while Daniels is an effective passer from a clean pocket, he bails on the play too quickly and far too frequently. Beyond those concerns, his high pressure to sack rate puts him in company with Zach Wilson. Plus, similar to Justin Fields, Daniels rarely threw over the middle of the field and has left that as a big question mark heading into the NFL.
The elite athleticism, deep ball and accuracy outside the hashes all suggest Daniels can be a starting quarterback. There are just enough red flags in his profile, both immediately and long-term, that make drafting him a gamble. He’s still a top-15 talent, but not anywhere close to being the No. 1 quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Related: 2024 NFL Draft order, picks by team