Despite throwing two interceptions in an ugly Week 14 loss to the Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith is in the midst of a breakout season.
The former New York Jets second-round pick was nearly out of the league just a few short years ago, bouncing around between the New York Giants and Los Angeles Chargers as a mere depth option.
But once Seattle opted to trade Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos this past spring, Smith was given the keys to its offense. He has not looked back since, leading the Seahawks to playoff contention. It could all now come full circle with Smith, 32, set to hit free agency in March.
According to NFL insider Jordan Schultz, both Smith and the Seahwawks would like to get a long-term deal done. The issue here is that other teams are going to show significant interest in the former Western Virginia star, likely leading to a lucrative long-term contract.
There’s certainly a lot of moving parts here. Some might conclude that Smith is a one-year wonder. After all, he started a combined five regular-season games from 2015-21 after bombing out in that role to open his career throughout his first two NFL seasons. In fact, Smith’s numbers prior to the 2022 campaign were atrocious.
- Geno Smith stats (2013-21): 58.8% completion, 6,917 yards, 34 TD, 37 INT, 75.7 QB rating
Through the first 13 games of the 2022 season, Smith is completing a league-high 71.5% of his passes to go with 25 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions. Whether this is a mirage remains to be seen. But it should get him paid in March.
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Potential NFL free agent market for Geno Smith
It’s pure conjecture here. But as many as 11 teams could be looking for starting quarterbacks once the 2022 season comes to a conclusion. That doesn’t include Smith’s current Seahawks squad.
It’s all about supply and demand. While the 2023 NFL Draft class at quarterback is seen as pretty good, teams who believe they are close to playoff contention might prefer that experienced veteran. We’re looking at the Las Vegas Raiders, Indianapolis Colts, Washington Commanders and Carolina Panthers heading that list.
- Geno Smith contract: 1 year, $3.5 million; free agent in 2023
As you can see, Smith is vastly underpaid in the grand scheme of things. The ever-evolving NFL quarterback market will dictate what happens here.
Looking at it through a per-year basis and taking into account a fluid market, something similar to the $33.5 million Jared Goff is earning with the Detroit Lions would make a ton of sense. That is to say, a four-year contract worth $134 million with half of that fully guaranteed.
It’s a high price to pay for a quarterback with less than a full season of consistent success under his belt. But Smith has changed the narrative surrounding him in a big way. The market will reflect that short of the veteran and his current Seahawks squad agreeing to an extension ahead of the market opening up in March.