NFL exec questions Detroit Lions Super Bowl odds because of Dan Campbell

Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell has quickly become one of the best head coaches in the National Football League, with two of his hand-picked assistants widely recognized as two of the best NFL coaching candidates in 2025. However, some around the league are questioning if Campbell’s decision-making will be the Lions’ undoing.

Detroit is the most aggressive team in the NFL, led by a willingness to go for it on fourth downs that few teams in NFL history have with this consistency. While the go-for-it mentality is partially tied to analytics, it’s also tied to Campbell’s history of seeing how draining fourth-down conversions can be on an opponent and especially the defense.

Dan Campbell coaching record: 41-34-1 overall, 36-27-1 as the Detroit Lions coach

The Lions’ offense used that aggressiveness on offense in their Thursday Night Football victory over the Green Bay Packers, allowing Detroit to keep its No. 1 spot in the NFC while creating further distance from the Packers in the NFC North. However, at least one NFL executive is wondering if Campbell’s ways will ultimately cost Detroit a Super Bowl.

Mike Sando of The Athletic polled several NFL executives about the concerns they have with each Super Bowl contender. While a few saw Detroit as the best team in football, one anonymous executive questioned if Campbell’s fourth-down aggressiveness would cost the Lions in the playoffs.

“I also have a concern about their head coach (Dan Campbell) not clicking into playoff mode, where teams really count the possessions and he wants to keep pushing his fourth-down strategy. That was costly in their playoff loss (to San Francisco) last season. Can he adjust to the way those games are played, when each one of those possessions is higher leverage?”
Anonymous NFL executive on his concern with Detroit Lions HC Dan Campbell’s fourth-down decision making in the NFL Playoffs

Losing the NFC Championship Game did nothing to dissuade Campbell from carrying that approach on fourth downs into this season. In 2023, the Lions offense had a 57.7 percent fourth-down conversion rate, which ranked 15th in the NFL and they averaged 2.35 fourth-down attempts per game.

Detroit Lions fourth down stats (ESPN): 15 fourth-down conversions (4th in NFL), 68.2 percent fourth-down conversion rate (6th in NFL)

Detroit’s been even better this season, improving its fourth-down conversion rate by more than 10 points. While the Lions’ fourth-down attempts per game (1.69) have gone down, that’s in part because they’ve won five games by two touchdowns or more.

Other NFL executives did theorize that if the Lions defense starts to fall off, it could put more pressure on quarterback Jared Goff. That’s notable because, per The Athletic, Goff has a 42-7 TD-INT when Detroit is tied or leading in games since last season but he has a 17-15 TD-INT ratio when trailing.

If Detroit’s defense gets healthier before the playoffs and Ford Field provides one of the strongest home-field advantages in the NFL Playoffs, then the Lions could mitigate those other issues just fine. Plus, Detroit is still widely regarded as having the best coaching staff in the NFL and one of the best rosters.