There’s no question that the best matchup among the NFL games today is the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers. There’s always endless history between these two rivals and the stakes are even higher in Week 5.
Dallas once again lost to the 49ers in the playoffs this past postseason, with the offense being suffocated in a 19-12 loss. Both teams enter Sunday Night Football near the top of the NFL power rankings and it’s a guarantee the NFL TV ratings for this game will be through the roof.
Let’s dive into our Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers predictions for Week 5.
Christian McCaffrey eclipses 120 scrimmage yards, two touchdowns
In the last Cowboys vs 49ers game, Dallas did an excellent job containing All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey. To put things into perspective, let’s look at how McCaffrey performed during the 2022 regular season with San Francisco. In 10 starts after landing with the team, McCaffrey averaged 4.7 yards per carry, 8.8 yards per reception with 114.8 scrimmage yards per game and 10 total touchdowns scored.
Related: NFL coverage map Week 5
Yet in the NFC Divisional Round, McCaffrey managed just 3.5 yards per carry and 5.1 yards per reception with 42 scrimmage yards on 16 touches. Dallas did a better job of containing McCaffrey than any 49ers’ opponent during the regular season. Yet, we expect that to change in Week 5.
Keep in mind that plenty of opponents have had success on the ground against the Cowboys’ defense. In 2022, Dallas allowed 200-plus rushing yards twice and six of its opponents rushed for 150-plus yards. As for this season, we’re only a few weeks removed from the Arizona Cardnals exploding for 222 rushing yards on Dallas in Week 3. With the 49ers’ passing game in a better place than it was when these teams last met, McCaffrey should have a much better performance.
Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys line rack up 4 sacks, 1 forced fumble
Trent Williams is a future Hall of Famer and remains one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL today. Outside of the perennial All-Pro selection, though, San Francisco’s offensive line is exploitable. Entering Week 4, the 49ers rank just 14th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate (56%). On the opposite side of Williams, San Francisco is starting right tackle Colton McKivitz (62.8 PFF pass-blocking grade, four sacks allowed).
Dallas loves moving Parsons around in the box. This season, per Pro Football Focus, Parsons has played 62 snaps at LOLB and 86 snaps at ROLB. Against San Francisco, it’s safe to project Parsons lining up more on the right side to exploit San Francisco’s weakness.
- San Francisco 49ers offensive line stats (PFF): 85.1 Pass Blocking Efficiency (15th), 32 pressures allowed on 124 dropbacks (27th in NFL), 5 sacks allowed
Naturally, Kyle Shanahan will find some ways to force the Cowboys’ pass rushers to pump the brakes a bit. Purdy has the fifth-fastest average time to throw (2.43 seconds) and he holds a solid 84.0 QB rating vs pressure (12th in NFL). However, Dallas is one of the few teams that is well-equipped to create penetration in the 49ers’ backfield and that should lead to multiple sacks and a potential sack-fumble.
Brandon Aiyuk solidifies himself as 49ers’ WR1
Deeboo Samuel is one of the most electrifying players in the open field and the 2021 All-Pro selection is a dangerous offensive weapon. However, Samuel is also playing through injuries right now and it’s starting to appear as if Brandon Aiyuk might be WR1 in San Francisco.
Without Trevon Diggs in the Cowboys’ secondary, this becomes a very favorable matchup for Aiyuk. Entering Week 5, Dallas has the second-highest rate of deployed man coverage in the NFL, using it on 39.3% of snaps. Meanwhile, Aiyuk ranks second in PFF grade (91.3) versus man coverage, with the second-most touchdowns (two) and a near-perfect QB rating (158.0) when he’s targeted in man schemes.
When the Cowboys’ pass rush doesn’t get home on Purdy, Aiyuk should be a popular target. San Francisco could deploy George Kittle more as a blocker in this matchup as well, opening up an even higher target share as a result. If Stephon Gilmore lines up a majority of the time on Samuel, Aiyuk could have his third 100-yard performance in four games.
San Francisco 49ers win, prove they’re the best team in the NFL
Fortunately, both of these teams are pretty healthy before taking the field on Sunday. While Dallas is missing Diggs, every starter on the NFL injury report this week has been cleared to play. The same goes for San Francisco.
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Matchups like this come down to execution, coaching and who has the most game-changing players. Dallas might have the best defense in the NFL, but its red-zone woes and the early struggles of Brandin Cooks put this team in a hole. Shanahan has proven himself time and time again, including versus Mike McCarthy and Dan Quinn.
Ultimately, we think this comes down to the final possession with Dallas holding the football last down six. San Francisco will turn up the heat on Prescott. It all ends with a game-sealing interception, sending the 49ers to a 5-0 record while Dallas must figure things out at 3-2.
- Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers prediction: 49ers 27, Cowboys 21
