College Football Picks Week 7: Alabama vs Tennessee, Penn State vs Michigan and more predictions

Week 7 of the college football schedule is poised to be one of the best slates of games during the 2022 season. From an SEC battle between the Alabama Crimson Tide vs Tennessee Volunteers to the Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan Wolverines and Oklahoma State Cowboys vs TCU Horned Frogs, we’ve got college football picks for every matchup.

Saturday’s matchups on the Week 7 college football schedule go beyond rivalry games. Alabama vs Tennessee pits two of the best teams in the country against one another with both fighting for a spot in the College Football Playoff bracket. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State vs TCU is a battle for first place in the Big 12 standings while NC State vs Syracuse dukes it out for second in the ACC Atlantic division.

Let’s dive into our Week 7 college football picks for each of the top-25 matchups. Further below, you can find specific breakdowns for some of the best matchups on the schedule.

Related: College Football Rankings Week 7

College Football Picks: Lines, point spreads and predictions for Week 7

Below we’ve made college football picks against the spread for all 13 top-25 games in Week 7. The spread and point total are set by BetMGM.

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Week 7 College Football Picks

Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan Wolverines

Week 7 will be the first time we’ve really seen either of these teams face a significant test. The road to 6-0 for Michigan includes victories over unranked Maryland, Indiana and Iowa with those representing their toughest opponents of the season. Meanwhile, Penn State’s track record includes wins over Auburn, Central Michigan and Purdue. Needless to say, both teams haven’t exactly faced the highest level of competition.

The Nittany Lions enter Week 7 with one of the best run defenses in the nation, allowing just 82.2 rushing yards per game to opponents (5th) and 3.0 yards per rush (11th). However, it’s worth mentioning that none of its previous opponents currently rank within the top90 teams in rush ypg. On the other side, Michigan (212.3 rush ypg, 5.4 ypr) is riding Blake Corum with great success.

It’s certainly going to be one of the best matchups to watch on Saturday, but the edge goes to the Wolverines’ offense. Likewise, we’re more willing to bet on the more talented quarterback (J.J. McCarthy). Finally, even with these teams feeling evenly matched, we can’t ignore James Franklin’s 2-13 record against top-10 ranked teams.

• College Football Picks: Michigan Wolverines 28, Penn State Nittany Lions 21

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Tennessee Volunteers

This is easily our favorite game on the Week 7 college football schedule. It certainly helps that the winner will earn the No. 2 spot in the top 25 rankings. It could also be a fantastic duel between two of the best quarterbacks in college football, assuming Bryce Young plays, with both among the leading Heisman Trophy candidates.

The recent history between the Crimson Tide and the Volunteers certainly needs to be remembered. Alabama is riding a 15-game winning streak in this rivalry with double-digit wins in each of the last six seasons. Putting that stretch into perspective, Tennessee last beat the Crimson Tide in 2006 and Mark Ingram won the Heisman and Nick Saban took over as coach a few weeks later.

For now, we’re making our college football picks for this matchup under the assumption that Young plays. If he doesn’t Tennessee should be favored and might even win by double digits. However, there are enough reasons to think Young won’t be at 100% even if he takes the field.

Tennessee runs a balanced offense, with a 43-47 pass-to-run ratio. It puts the spotlight on the line of scrimmage as Alabama’s defense is allowing the third-fewest yards per rush (2.4) and ranks 15th in sack rate (8.78%). As for the Volunteers’ offensive line, it ranks 49th in sack rate (4.82%).

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When Alabama’s offense takes the field, offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien will turn to a rushing attack that ranks second in the FBS in yards per rush (7.0) and yards per game (257.5). It will likely be the focal point for the Crimson Tide on Saturday, even against a Tennessee front allowing just 2.8 ypr.

We anticipate this matchup coming down to the final drives in the fourth quarter, with Tennessee delivering big plays through the air and Alabama finding success on the ground. Our prediction would be different if Young was healthy, but that’s just not the case here.

• Prediction: Tennessee Volunteers 34, Alabama Crimson Tide 31

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs TCU Horned Frogs

If you’re making college football picks based on the ESPN Football Power Index, the Oklahoma State vs TCU matchup is a coin flip. Entering Week 7, the Cowboys (13.1) and Horned Frogs (12.9) are neck-and-neck in FPI. Similarly, TCU (8) and Oklahoma State (10) are remarkably close in GC.

It’s certainly worth considering how each of these teams fared this past week. Oklahoma State narrowly escaped with a victory at home against Texas Tech. In that 41-31 victory, the Cowboys’ defense allowed 527 total yards and that marked the third time the Cowboys’ defense allowed 450-plus total yards. Unsurprisingly, Oklahoma State ranks 47th in defensive efficiency (63.3).

Consider it part of the reason TCU is favored in this matchup. The Horned Frogs’ offense enters Week 7 ranked second in offensive efficiency (89.1), averaging 46.4 points (4th in FBS) and 530 yards (3rd) per game. It’s a credit to Sonny Dykes, who unlocked quarterback Max Duggan (88.5 QBR, 14-1 TD-INT) with Quentin Johnson (320 receiving yards) and Taye Barber, 233 yards, 19.4 ypc) thriving in this system.

TCU is better offensively and defensively than Oklahoma State and the home-field advantage is another huge factor in this team’s favor. While we expect plenty of fireworks from both sides, the Horned Frogs are the better team right now.

• Prediction: TCU Horned Frogs 38. Oklahoma State Cowboys 31

NC State Wolfpack vs Syracuse Orange

NC State is keeping things quiet regarding the availability of Devin Leary for Saturday. Based on the injury he suffered and the lack of certainty, we’ll operate from the same belief that Las Vegas is. The line indicates Leary won’t play in Week 7 and that does make Syracuse the team to beat, but things would be different if Leary played.

Opponents have enjoyed some success against the Wolfpack defense in 2022, averaging 4.1 yards per rush and 113 rush ypg. It’s notable because of the matchup. Syracuse running back Sean Tucker is coming off a 232-yard performance, though, it happened against Wagner. What stands out about the sophomore is that he averages 5.7 yards per rush dating back to the 2021 season. Syracuse ranks 24th nationally in rushing attempts per game (41), centering its offense around Tucker and junior quarterback Garrett Shrader (1,224 passing yards, 219 rushing yards and 15 total TDs). If the Orange find early momentum, they’ll dictate all four quarters with Tucker and could win by a touchdown if Leary can’t suit up.

• Prediction: Syracuse Orange 27, NC State Wolfpack 20

Stay tuned for more college football picks in the days ahead, including previews for USC vs Utah

By Matt Johnson

Matt Johnson is Senior Editor of NFL and College Football for Sportsnaut. His work, including weekly NFL and college ... More about Matt Johnson