Brock Purdy leads his San Francisco 49ers into Philadelphia to take on Jalen Hurts and the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game Sunday afternoon.
For many ahead of the start of the season, this seemed to be an unlikely pairing heading into the season. Purdy was the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Mr Irrelevant, as he is known, was third behind Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo on the 49ers’ depth chart heading into the campaign.
All Purdy has done is lead San Francisco to seven wins in his seven starts, putting up an historical run in the process. The 49ers head into this one on a 12-game winning streak.
While Hurts was coming off a solid sophomore season, his Eagles were blown out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Wild Card Playoffs.
Things changed in this regard as Hurts entered his third season in the NFL. Philly opened the 2022 season having won eight consecutive games. The former Oklahoma standout was an early-season MVP candidate before suffering a shoulder injury. Heck, he’s still a finalist for the top individual award.
In what promises to be an epic NFC Championship Game quarterback matchup, let’s check in on how Purdy and Hurts stack up.
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Jalen Hurts has experience advantage of Brock Purdy
Only four rookie quarterbacks have started league championship games throughout their careers. All four have lost. That one of the reasons San Francisco is considered a small road underdog in this one. It’s a huge stage for a first-year signal caller. That’s magnified with Purdy having made just seven career starts, playoffs included.
Hurts has two full seasons as a starter in head coach Nick Sirianni’s system. He also started four games as a rookie back in 2020 under former head coach Doug Pederson. This gives Hurts a nice amount of experience, including last season’s NFC Wild Card loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
In a big-game atmosphere like we’re going to see Sunday evening in Philadelphia, every mistake is magnified. The coverage is tighter. Officials tend to hold the whistle a bit more than during regular-season games. The Crowd inside Lincoln Financial Field is going to be incredibly loud in Philadelphia’s favor. All of this plays into Hurts having the advantage.
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Recency bias points to Brock Purdy over Jalen Hurts
NFL analysis always includes recency bias. Remember back in November when Hurts had his Eagles undefeated at 8-0? Not a single person around the league had Purdy on their radar. Jimmy Garoppolo was doing his thing for San Francisco. Meanwhile, Hurts had completed that eight-game stretch having accounted for 18 total touchdowns and two interceptions.
Fast forward less than three months, and the tides have shifted to an extent. Hurts is dealing with a shoulder injury to his throwing arm and has not necessarily been the same since returning.
As for Purdy, he took over for an injured Garoppolo during a Week 13 game against the Miami Dolphins and has not looked back. In fact, Purdy has outperformed pretty much every NFL quarterback since he started seeing action. That includes Mr. Hurts.
- Brock Purdy stats (past seven starts): 67% completion, 234.9 yards per game, 14 TD, 2 INT, 116.0 QB rating
- Jalen Hurts stats (past seven starts): 65% completion, 234.0 yards per game, 10 TD, 3 INT, 96.8 QB rating
Both quarterbacks are 7-0 during this span. However, Purdy is leading San Francisco to an average of 32.6 points per game in his seven starts. Philly is averaging 29.7 points during that very same time frame.
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Both quarterbacks have elite supporting casts
San Francisco wouldn’t be in the midst of a 12-game winning streak if it didn’t have elite-level talent to surround Purdy. Philadelphia wouldn’t have finished tied for the best record in football if it didn’t have the same for Hurts. As much as this game could be about quarterback play, the skill positions and offensive lines will also play huge roles.
Looking at San Francisco, it starts with the grouping Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk working with Purdy. In the five regular-season games with his rookie quarterback starting, Kittle caught 22 passes for 293 yards with seven touchdowns. Purdy boasted a 137.1 QB rating when targeting his tight end. Throughout the season, 49ers quarterbacks also had some great numbers when throwing to McCaffrey and Aiyuk.
- Brandon Aiyuk 2022 stats (2022): 78 receptions, 1,015 yards, 8 TD, 68.4 catch rate, 115.9 QB rating
- Christian McCaffrey stats w/ 49ers: 52 receptions, 464 yards, 4 TD, 80.0% catch rate, 116.9 QB rating
McCaffrey also put up 746 rushing yards and six touchdowns at a clip of 4.7 yards with San Francisco after being acquired from the Carolina Panthers in October. It’s also no surprise that San Francisco has won all 12 games in which McCaffrey has been a full-time participant. OK, that is somewhat of a surprise. NFL teams don’t typically win 12 consecutive.
The only outlier here has been Deebo Samuel’s struggles after an All-Pro performance in 2021. He caught less than 60% of his passes with 49ers quarterbacks throwing three interceptions and boasting a 73.5 passer rating when targeting the wide receiver during the regular season.
Philadelphia’s skill positions were nearly as dynamic for Hurts during the regular season. The only exception here was Miles Sanders’ lack of dual-threat ability out of the backfield. The Pro Bowler caught just 26 passes in 17 games. Sanders more than made up for that by tallying 1,269 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns at a clip of nearly five yards per run.
Hurts’ success in 2022 can be attributed as much to his skill-positions as his all-world talent. The stats back this up in a big way.
- A.J. Brown stats (2022): 88 receptions, 1,496 yards, 11 TD, 60.7% catch rate, 112.3 QB rating
- DeVonta Smith stats (2022): 95 receptions,, 1,196 yards, 7 TD, 69.6% catch rate, 111.0 QB rating
- Dallas Goedert stats (2022): 55 receptions, 702 yards, 3 TD, 79.7% catch rate, 123.6 QB rating
Offensive line play vs elite defensive fronts
The trenches are a major component to success in Janury. Both Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts will find this out once Sunday afternoon comes calling in Philadelphia.
The Eagles seem to have a minor advantage in this category. Their defense recorded a league-leading 70 sacks during the regular season. Haason Reddick (16), Javon Hargrave (11), Josh Sweat (11) and Brandon Graham (11) became the first foursome of teammates to tally double-digit sacks in a season.
Philadelphia’s defensive line and pass rush will be going up aginst a 49ers offensive line that gave up a mere 31 sacks in 17 games. Led by future Hall of Fame left tackle Trent Williams (one sack allowed), Purdy went down 11 times in 181 dropbacks (6.1% sack rate).
49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa is the likely NFL Defensive Player of the Year. However, he recorded 18.5 of San Francisco’s 44 sacks (42%). Not a single other member of the 49ers’ defense had more than five takedowns. In fact, Charles Omenihu was third on the team with four sacks. His status for the NFC Championship Game is not yet known due to an off-field situation.
The good news for the DeMeco Ryans’ 49ers-led defense? Hurts was sacked 38 times in 2022 compared to just 26 times the previous year. His sack rate also increased from 5.7% to 7.6%. While right tackle Lane Johnson is among the best at his position, Jordan Mailata struggled protecting Hurts’ blindside. He yielded 37 QB pressures and six sacks during the regular season.
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Final determination: Jalen Hurts by a hair
- Playing at home
- More experience
These are the two factors that lead us to give Hurts a minor advantage over Purdy heading into the NFC Championship Game. But the fact that it’s incredibly close just goes to show us how surprising San Francisco’s rookie seventh-round pick has been through seven games.
None of this means Philadelphia will end up taking out San Francisco with a trip to Super Bowl LVII on the line. Rather, the 49ers’ elite all-around roster must rally by their young quarterback in order to earn a second Super Bowl appearance in four seasons.
Statistical predictions
- Jalen Hurts: 19-of-27 passing, 235 yards, 50 rushing yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Brock Purdy: 20-of-32 passing, 250 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT